With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coming close to 1 year anniversary at the end of this month, the diesel market has mean reverted to levels seen this time last year. Diesel cracks remain $10+ from the seasonal range. (1/5)
Asian refinery runs of the 4 main countries (China + India + Japan + Korea) surged above 25MMBD only for the 3rd time ever. The December runs came in at 25.07MMBD (+0.4MMBD y/y) and just 0.1MMBD shy of the record high seen in Nov 2021. (2/5)
Aggregate Open Interest continues to surge in the new year. Especially for Nymex WTI which is now at the highest level since June 2022. Similarly, for Brent but they remain ~20% lower than the 2021 peak. In products, ICE Gasoil OI is hitting the highest OI since March 2022. (3/5)
India was the first country to report its 2023 demand numbers. Even though total January demand saw a m/m dip from the record high in December, it remains 6% higher y/y. Road fuels such as Diesel and Gasoline, they are up by 13-14% y/y (4/5)
Global oil and gas prices have converged to its narrowest level since August 2021. If we look at European Gas/LNG/Oil/Diesel, they are now in the range of $85-$110, with crude being the cheapest and diesel the most expensive (5/5)
Total commodity net spec length is at 244K contract, near record lows seen a few weeks ago. Of the 244K contracts, 226K is Gold, where net spec length is at record highs due to strong moods of an upcoming risk-off environment. Excluding gold, the commodity basket would be at record lows by a wide margin seen over the last 10+ years. (Source: CFTC & ICE) (1/4)
Chinese crude imports rebounded from the July lows. August imports came in at 11.6MMBD which is a YTD high as the market now expects China’s crude imports to jump until year end as it takes advantage of this oil price rout. (Source: China customs) (2/4)
Dollar positioning saw it flip to negative levels ($8bn short) for the first time since February. The strong dollar has normally been a major headwind for oil prices, however, with dollar sentiment declining (largest weekly selling since March 2020), this might provide an unexpected tailwind to oil prices. (Source: CFTC) (1/5)
OPEC production dropped to the lowest levels since January. Total production was down by -0.34MMBD to 26.36MMBD mainly due to the production drop in Libya. Saudi and other countries like UAE and Kuwait (GCC) keep production flat this whole year while the rest of the group sees production at its lowest level since July 2023. (Source: OPEC Survey) (2/5)
The combined daily flights of the 3 biggest aviation routes (#China Domestic, #US Domestic and Regional Europe) continues to surge higher as it moves toward its stronger demand season. Looking at the Y/Y numbers in February, the combined routes are up ~7% with the bulk of growth coming from #Europe and China. Combined volumes are even higher than the preCovid peak of 2019 by ~4%. (Source: FlightRadar) (1/4)
Despite expectations of upcoming #ceasefire talks between Israel / Hamas, product freight has been structurally changed for the months to come. Tanker volume from #Suez continues to hover at low levels. (Source: Portwatch) (2/4)