1/ Japanese inflation goes from strength to strength. It rises as other rates come down. Why? 🇯🇵#japan#inflation#boj
2/ Possibly because more of the inflation is core inflation while other developed countries have a large cyclical component.
3/ The inflation is driving the previously placid Japanese worker to demand more pay - this is a first for maybe two generations of workers.
4/ Japanese demographic problems rely on wage suppression to ensure lack of workers doesn’t lead to spiralling wages and inflation. It looks like that ceiling may have been broken.
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1/ Looks like an opportunity to play the #greatdivergence in the market has opened up. Markets are already aware that emerging economies are set to outperform, but it hasn’t yet repriced the stocks.
2/ This is pretty unusual from an historical point-of-view and almost looks like an arbitrage opportunity to go long EM, short DM. (Almost, its a bit more complicated than that).
3/ EM multiples tend to trade a bit weird, so in reality this could be more so a signal that the DM markets (or at least the US) is trading way too high given growth rate projections and need to come down.
1/ Everyone seems to think the recent jobs numbers show a strong US economy. But if we ignore the headline numbers are look under the hood we see reliable recession indicators. 🧵
2/ Job growth came in strong in all sectors apart from tech. This includes construction which is a good cyclical indicator. Yet if you look at the data, construction job growth tends to lag construction investment growth - and the latter is currently deeply negative.
3/ Here is how the situation played out during the Great Recession. Investment growth went negative in Q3 2006, while construction job growth only went negative in Q3 2007. So, we should expect a lag of around a year - all else equal.
1/ Looks like China is trying to rebalance its economy. 🧵
2/ While its true that China has developed an alternative, non-Western trading block, the country hasn’t relied on exports for most of its growth since the GFC.
3/ Instead its relied on insane levels of investment/capital formation which accounts for nearly 42% of GDP.