1/ Japanese inflation goes from strength to strength. It rises as other rates come down. Why? 🇯🇵#japan #inflation #boj
2/ Possibly because more of the inflation is core inflation while other developed countries have a large cyclical component.
3/ The inflation is driving the previously placid Japanese worker to demand more pay - this is a first for maybe two generations of workers.
4/ Japanese demographic problems rely on wage suppression to ensure lack of workers doesn’t lead to spiralling wages and inflation. It looks like that ceiling may have been broken.

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More from @philippilk

Feb 13
1/ Looks like two very questionable premises are leading the UK down the garden path on energy.
2/ The first is the bizarre gas futures price. This is the price energy denialists quote when arguing that all is well.
3/ But the price contains no real information. The reality is that gas imports into Europe this year are near record lows.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 7
1/ Looks like an opportunity to play the #greatdivergence in the market has opened up. Markets are already aware that emerging economies are set to outperform, but it hasn’t yet repriced the stocks.
2/ This is pretty unusual from an historical point-of-view and almost looks like an arbitrage opportunity to go long EM, short DM. (Almost, its a bit more complicated than that).
3/ EM multiples tend to trade a bit weird, so in reality this could be more so a signal that the DM markets (or at least the US) is trading way too high given growth rate projections and need to come down.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
1/ Everyone seems to think the recent jobs numbers show a strong US economy. But if we ignore the headline numbers are look under the hood we see reliable recession indicators. 🧵
2/ Job growth came in strong in all sectors apart from tech. This includes construction which is a good cyclical indicator. Yet if you look at the data, construction job growth tends to lag construction investment growth - and the latter is currently deeply negative.
3/ Here is how the situation played out during the Great Recession. Investment growth went negative in Q3 2006, while construction job growth only went negative in Q3 2007. So, we should expect a lag of around a year - all else equal.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5
1/ There is now widespread recognition that the sanctions on Russia have been a dismal failure.
2/ All it takes is a small entrepreneur to take advantage of the situation to offset sanctions on a fungible product like oil.
3/ The end result is that exports continue apace.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 31
1/ Gas futures in Europe are now lower than in America. To the extent that the US imports natural gas at all, it comes from Canada.
2/ Meanwhile weekly gas imports in Europe are almost 1500mcm lower than they were this time last year.
3/ Russian imports have cratered and we appear to have maxed out on LNG - which is 40% more expensive anyway.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 29
1/ Looks like China is trying to rebalance its economy. 🧵
2/ While its true that China has developed an alternative, non-Western trading block, the country hasn’t relied on exports for most of its growth since the GFC.
3/ Instead its relied on insane levels of investment/capital formation which accounts for nearly 42% of GDP.
Read 6 tweets

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