Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #boj

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El peso mexicano opera con una apreciación marginal, por momentos cerca de $17.24 spot, en una sesión sin grandes referencias económicas, pero con los bancos centrales tomando decisiones a partir del miércoles

El mercado otorga ahora un 25% de posibilidades a que la #ReservaFederal eleve la tasa de interés en 25pbs. Aunque el restante 75% espera la Fed mantengan sin cambios su tasa de fondeo.

Para el #BCE, el consenso prevé un incremento de 25 pbs en sus tres tasas de referencia. Mientras que para el #BoJ, se espera que mantenga su política monetaria ultralaxa sin cambios, como viene siendo habitual.

Read 9 tweets
#Oil poised for weekly dip as #recession fears, rates cloud outlook | Apr 28
- #US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter, although jobless claims fell in the week ending April 22, data showed.…
#Stock market today: #Asia shares gain, tracking Wall St #rally | Apr 28
- Shares advanced in Asia on Friday after Wall Street rallied to its best day since January.… Image
#BOJ keeps #rate ultra-#low as it still cools #inflation | Oct 28
- The Bank of Japan stood by its ultra-low interest rates, pushing back against market speculation it would adjust policy as it continues to predict inflation will fall below 2% next year.… Image
Read 4 tweets
Thread on Japan
1/ Let me simplify the issues facing Japan #BOJ & why I believe people need to be paying attention: these are rough estimates:
*Japan's debt > $10 Trillion (in US terms) of which BOJ owns 40%+
*Japan Debt/GDP is >2.5x(largest of any developed nation)
*Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries (over $1 Trillion)
*Japan's Core CPI for January just came in at 4.2% (includes energy which is a big import for them) a 41 yr high
*Japan exports autos/auto parts/machinery/electronics etc & relies on China/US as buyers
*Japan has been artificially suppressing rates (yield curve control) & focused on keeping their 10yr capped at .5%; the recent "emergency bond buying program" from the #BOJ was $2.2 BLN (US)
*Japan spent $42.5 BLN (US) in a single day last October to strengthen the Yen
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1/ Japanese inflation goes from strength to strength. It rises as other rates come down. Why? 🇯🇵#japan #inflation #boj
2/ Possibly because more of the inflation is core inflation while other developed countries have a large cyclical component.
3/ The inflation is driving the previously placid Japanese worker to demand more pay - this is a first for maybe two generations of workers.
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#BOJ meeting has become more important than CPI data, Jobs Data. And the FED meetings. 10yr JGB swaps are at 1% vs 50bps YCC. The 10yr JGB yields spiking abv 50bps intraday she be ignored since they are borrowed shorts in 10yr series 100% owned by the BOJ.
I am betting that they do NOT increase they do NOT abandon YCC and they Do NOT raise the rates. basically they status QUO - 180 degree view of the mkt.
If they remain status quo, end up with tons of Widow traders on the street. In such a case the USDJPY will rally (JPY depreciates). This view is being expressed by being short JPYINR (my position)
Read 9 tweets
1/ A few market thoughts and updated thoughts on $TSLA from a behavioral finance POV; #BOE #BOJ interventions are proving to be short-lived as the British 10yr Gilt (yields higher) and the $JPY (weaker) have both breached levels where intervention was announced/executed
2/ faith in Global Central Banks continues to wane as investors begin to underwrite these Banks as credits rather than limitless piggy banks; this "looking under the hood" leads me to one of my favorite topics, $TSLA, which has really never traded on fundamentals..but first
3/ in 2000, I remember watching the stocks of the tech bubble's greatest hits ( $JDSU Lucent, Nortel etc) no longer reacting to the same type of news that kept driving these stocks higher: "contract wins" "new product launches" "accretive acquisitions" etc.; it was a sign that
Read 13 tweets
1/6 Busy day today in the markets,

Since I'm the type of trader who guides himself by the Price Action mainly, I prefer the phrase "show me the charts and I'll tell you the news" by Bernand Baruch.

Some thoughts below about #EURUSD #DXY .

CC: @JLinWins @deerpointmacro
2/6 Pre-Powell speech we had some headlines from #ECB officials signaling a potential 75bps rate hike due to #inflation and problems in the #EURO zone.
This caused $EURUSD to tap the supply area and perform a beautiful liquidity grab before resuming the current trend. Image
3/6 After losing the 1.00 / parity area, $EURUSD buyers must defend the $0.995 level. If we see that level taken out on a daily closing basis the target for this "bearish flag" pattern is $0.96 area, a -3.46% give or take.
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Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:

But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
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The yen is the proverbial canary in the coal mine for Asian currencies. BOJ Governor Kuroda has engaged in several “unlimited” and very public bond buying operations. Their Faustian bargain on rates has two major problems that act simultaneously against Japan: 1. Every bond 1/6
purchased by the BOJ injects that many more Yen into the system. 2. Rates differentials between other developed economies (primarily the U.S.) causes Mrs. Watanabe to immediately take those Yen and invest abroad at much higher rates (+250 bps now).The third rail and lingering 2/6
Explosive problem is confidence in the BOJ eroding daily. These ‘disorderly’ moves in the Yen break confidence in control. Market forces can turn into a panic 😱 once participants realize the yen is completely unhinged (happening now). Once lack of confidence on 3/6
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🇯🇵BOJ POLICY (thread)

YCC Policy Unch BUT-

(re-re-reading to make sure correct, & if I am..)


“…offer to purchase 10Y JGBs at 0.25% every business day through fixed-rate
purchase operations, unless it is highly likely that no bids will be submitted.”
2/ Evolution of official language on BOJ YCC Fixed Rate Ops (offer to buy unlimited JGBs at specified level- currently 10y JGBs at 0.25%)

•Jan21: “❌upper limit”
•Mar21: “±0.25% range” (only time “0.25%”)
•Apr21 - Mar’22: “❌upper limit”
★Apr22: “offer to buy at 0.25% daily”
3/ Markets-wise, whats insane / what I’ve been flagging about this current moment + next 2-3 hours is:
WTF does a 🇯🇵asset mngr do right now??

Need to decide on buy/sell executions before mkt closes for 1wk

Need to wait for Kuroda press conf 3:30pm post-close

👆Keep in mind
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1/It’s an action-packed week, with three major central bank meetings, the election over who will become Japan’s next leader, and an overload of key economic data. The Fed decision will be crucial (Thu). Image
2/Will the central bank reinforce its new inflation regime by signalling imminent stimulus, or will it sit back until the US election has passed? Neither the Bank of England (Thu) nor the Bank of Japan (Thu) is likely to act.
3/Instead, those currencies may be driven mostly by how the Brexit saga and global risk sentiment evolve.


#GlobalMacroAtaGlance #MacroEconomics #TR2min #ForexTrading #GlobalMacroAnalysis #BoJ #BoE
Read 3 tweets
The #FED and all major Central Bankers in the world believe that relentless credit expansion fosters greater economic growth and full employment

The fact is Lower interest rates fosters more debt issuance
What #FED , #SNB , #Euro and #BOJ are been doing is that when economic growth falters for any reason the first action is to push rates lower

But the fact is that there is a limit to how much debt the household, business, and government sectors of the economy can tolerate
To give an example the national #GDP of USA has grown 21X since 1969 and the total Debt including households, businesses, governments, and financials is up by 51X

Also remember aggregate economic growth comes from the sum of labour hours employed and productivity improvements
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#Apple , $2 Trillion stock and mystery of 10:30 AM when large buying happens in #FAANG especially #Apple
#swissbank #softbank #boj #norgesbank are large buyers of these stocks

Apple hit a market cap of $2 trillion, doubling in valuation in just over two years.
Apple first reached a $1 trillion market cap on Aug. 2, 2018. It didn't take long for other tech giants Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet to match Apple's $1 trillion market cap.
All of Apple’s second $1 trillion came in the past 21 weeks...
while the global economy shrank faster than ever before in the coronavirus pandemic.
Investors have started seeing Apple's business less like other hardware makers and more like a software company, as indicated by Apple's quickly rising price-earnings ratio, which is now over 33
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Oggi LadyLaga...
Il banco chiude...sondaggio e scommesse finite...
che amarezza!!😂😂👽
tra 15 minuti il responso finale! Image
bucata la sogli di 1.40
boscaioli ne abbiamo?👽😂 Image
Read 746 tweets
Boom, Got Silver? Historic move...

Thank You #ECB #Fed #BOJ #PBOC #BOE
Silver > Gold, the beating continues, or you could say, playing “catch up.”

Silver, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ....
Read 4 tweets

Abe to Kuroda over breakfast:

"If debt to GDP of 250% didn't work, let us try 300.."

Gold likes the Kuroda MMT afterburners in Japan today... Trend break alert: Image
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"Theory tells us why Japan didn't inflate" Really? News to most! But two things may explain it - business made a big shift from heavily indebted to positive cash, mirrored by the state's plunge into the red, intermediated by the BOJ... 1/x
In effect, corporate debt was slowly washed to the government whose IOUs were bought by the #centralbank. Reserves issued v these offset bank deposit liabilities to the now flush businesses happy to hold them because #NIRP destroyed transaction/savings balance differences 2/x
Meanwhile, much of #Japan's newly created money was swapped up and used to finance speculative purchases elsewhere in the world - as shown for Grand Cayman 3/x
Read 7 tweets
Reading all these calls for ‘stimulus’, one wonders, if Constantine XI had had a ‘technology we call the printing press’ would his city not have fallen to the besieging Ottomans in 1453.
Shame he hadn’t heard of Gutenberg’s newly invented gizmo...
#Fed #UST #coronavirus #ECB
“The bad news, Tommy, iss for your ze war iss over. Ze good is, your RAF has parachuted in a packet of £5 notes to ease your captivity”
#coronavirus #stimulus #centralbanks #HelicopterMoney
Imagine if, during the Berlin Airlift, General Lucius Clay had not bothered flyng in food and fuel, but had just dropped Greenbacks.

You think Stalin might have chuckled?
#stimulus #coronavirus #COVID2019 #centralbanks #fiscal
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🇨🇳 #China (1) | The question is no longer if, but how hard, the #coronavirus will damage Chinese economy (and its trading partners) in 1Q20.
🇨🇳 #China (2) | A blockage of 16 cities (~50 million people) coupled with the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday and prohibition for Cos to return to work soon implies that 1Q will fall below 6% for the first time since QoQ figures are recorded.
🇨🇳 #China (3) | The impact will probably broaden from retail sales, tourism/transportation...

Read 93 tweets
The whole point of the ‘market’ -as we #Asutrians have been telling you for over a century- is that the prices formed by the countless interactions of our teeming humanity convey info of the best possible quality to help co-ordinate the most fruitful use of scarce resources 1/x
- the greater the nodes on that market network; the more individual needs and preferences expressed upon it, the better the solutions: the more enriched the ‘spontaneous order’ it throws up.
The scrambling of price signals by state lever-pullers is one evil we often discuss - 2/x
- what we don’t address often enough in financial markets (theoretically possessed of the densest and most widespread, most rapid, most frictionless networks of all) is the deadening effect of overconcentration and the move to oligopoly under which we are now suffering - 3/x
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We’ve argued that understanding the dynamics of total global #liquidity is more important than merely focusing on central bank #rate moves, yet when it comes to both rates and liquidity measures, global central banks have made an important pivot toward #PragmaticEquilibrium. Image
Indeed, we estimate the peak-to-trough contraction in our measure of total global #liquidity was about $1.6 trillion over a span of nearly 20 months, and that corresponded to a flattening in the U.S. #Treasury curve and growing anxiety about growth prospects.
However, we estimate that between now and the end of 2020, the @federalreserve will inject near another $350 billion, the #ECB another $250 billion, and should global FX reserve growth remain steady as it has, it will represent another $350 billion in liquidity growth.
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l'impulso dalla creazione di quasi 3Trilioni di $ di riserve non spinge in maniera coerente e costante l'elargizione di nuovo credito da parte delle banche US👉NON C'E' DOMANDA
la moneta creata non "gira" come potrebbe/dovrebbe e lo vedi su
-Linea Nera:Inflazione attesa 5y FWD
...perché accade tutto questo?
perché da oltre 10 anno l'unico intento delle CBs è quello di salvaguardare il sistema finanziario come l'abbiamo sempre "conosciuto" che è morto esattamente 11 anni fa...NON SIAMO MAI USCITI DALLA GFC 2008/09 e non usciremo mai in questo modo
...ed oggi vedremo quanto @potus è ricattabile...ha in mano il jolly per affondare EZ e lo DEVE giocare adesso...👽…
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..poi un giorno ci farete sapere quanto avete alzato shortando italia quando eravate sovranisti (hawkish) e poi rigirandovi una volta tornati euristi (dovish)
Il "flip-flop" di questo governo oltre ad essere un bail-out mascherato per banche IT via BTP, è "gain" per establishment
Establishment IT alla "canna del gas"..."o XI...o MORTE"...
Read 1014 tweets
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)
🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing
🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

#TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets
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