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Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:


But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
Read 23 tweets
The yen is the proverbial canary in the coal mine for Asian currencies. BOJ Governor Kuroda has engaged in several “unlimited” and very public bond buying operations. Their Faustian bargain on rates has two major problems that act simultaneously against Japan: 1. Every bond 1/6
purchased by the BOJ injects that many more Yen into the system. 2. Rates differentials between other developed economies (primarily the U.S.) causes Mrs. Watanabe to immediately take those Yen and invest abroad at much higher rates (+250 bps now).The third rail and lingering 2/6
Explosive problem is confidence in the BOJ eroding daily. These ‘disorderly’ moves in the Yen break confidence in control. Market forces can turn into a panic 😱 once participants realize the yen is completely unhinged (happening now). Once lack of confidence on 3/6
Read 6 tweets
🇯🇵BOJ POLICY (thread)

YCC Policy Unch BUT-

(re-re-reading to make sure correct, & if I am..)

PERMANENT FIXED RATE OP??

“…offer to purchase 10Y JGBs at 0.25% every business day through fixed-rate
purchase operations, unless it is highly likely that no bids will be submitted.”
2/ Evolution of official language on BOJ YCC Fixed Rate Ops (offer to buy unlimited JGBs at specified level- currently 10y JGBs at 0.25%)

•Jan21: “❌upper limit”
•Mar21: “±0.25% range” (only time “0.25%”)
•Apr21 - Mar’22: “❌upper limit”
★Apr22: “offer to buy at 0.25% daily”
3/ Markets-wise, whats insane / what I’ve been flagging about this current moment + next 2-3 hours is:
WTF does a 🇯🇵asset mngr do right now??

Need to decide on buy/sell executions before mkt closes for 1wk

BUT
Need to wait for Kuroda press conf 3:30pm post-close

👆Keep in mind
Read 20 tweets
@buddhaAF_____ fcking legend. That frickin APP... Shapeshift, XCP DEX, dApps on Bitcoin earning @SpellsofGenesis cards and more. My God I wish I was around. If you ever wanna hire me to spread the message I work cheap lmao. I love @Coin_and_Peace documentation of how that scene was #cofounderIS
@buddhaAF_____ @SpellsofGenesis @Coin_and_Peace @Coin_and_Peace wrote this but I found it out in my DD last month because I was never info Ethereum and I wanted to spend time since my team @_Devcoin left a branch we just integrated for OG 80 Byte OP_RETURN Counterparty was meant to run on. @realSidhuJag of @syscoin made it.
Read 10 tweets
A long thread on the dominance of #centralbanks over our economies.

It should be reminded that central banks were never planned to have such a massive role in the #economy .

The idea of the central bank was born in the Middle-Ages, when failures of the... 1/23
@GnSEconomics
...largest merchant banks of that era, founded by the Bardi and Peruzzi families, shocked the Italian City-State of Florence in 1343 and 1346.

These financial crises gave birth to the idea that the commercial banking sector would need a ‘liquidity backstop’, i.e.,... 2/
...an entity that could lend to private financial institutions in trouble. This was the original aim of central banks: to act as ‘piggy banks’ for commercial banks.

The first central bank that resembled the modern ones emerged in 1609, when the Dutch empire... 3/
Read 23 tweets
1/It’s an action-packed week, with three major central bank meetings, the election over who will become Japan’s next leader, and an overload of key economic data. The Fed decision will be crucial (Thu). Image
2/Will the central bank reinforce its new inflation regime by signalling imminent stimulus, or will it sit back until the US election has passed? Neither the Bank of England (Thu) nor the Bank of Japan (Thu) is likely to act.
3/Instead, those currencies may be driven mostly by how the Brexit saga and global risk sentiment evolve.

FULL REPORT: trackrecordasia2960.ac-page.com/mailing-list

#GlobalMacroAtaGlance #MacroEconomics #TR2min #ForexTrading #GlobalMacroAnalysis #BoJ #BoE
Read 3 tweets
The #FED and all major Central Bankers in the world believe that relentless credit expansion fosters greater economic growth and full employment

The fact is Lower interest rates fosters more debt issuance
What #FED , #SNB , #Euro and #BOJ are been doing is that when economic growth falters for any reason the first action is to push rates lower

But the fact is that there is a limit to how much debt the household, business, and government sectors of the economy can tolerate
To give an example the national #GDP of USA has grown 21X since 1969 and the total Debt including households, businesses, governments, and financials is up by 51X

Also remember aggregate economic growth comes from the sum of labour hours employed and productivity improvements
Read 6 tweets
#Apple , $2 Trillion stock and mystery of 10:30 AM when large buying happens in #FAANG especially #Apple
#swissbank #softbank #boj #norgesbank are large buyers of these stocks

Apple hit a market cap of $2 trillion, doubling in valuation in just over two years.
Apple first reached a $1 trillion market cap on Aug. 2, 2018. It didn't take long for other tech giants Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet to match Apple's $1 trillion market cap.
All of Apple’s second $1 trillion came in the past 21 weeks...
while the global economy shrank faster than ever before in the coronavirus pandemic.
Investors have started seeing Apple's business less like other hardware makers and more like a software company, as indicated by Apple's quickly rising price-earnings ratio, which is now over 33
Read 10 tweets
Oggi LadyLaga...
Il banco chiude...sondaggio e scommesse finite...
VINCE KARLSRHUE SUL TRENINO
che amarezza!!😂😂👽
tra 15 minuti il responso finale! Image
BOOOOM
bucata la sogli di 1.40
boscaioli ne abbiamo?👽😂 Image
Read 746 tweets
Boom, Got Silver? Historic move...

Thank You #ECB #Fed #BOJ #PBOC #BOE
Silver > Gold, the beating continues, or you could say, playing “catch up.”

(3)
Silver, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ....
Read 4 tweets
*JAPAN'S ABE SAYS RULING PARTY BACKS $988 BILLION STIMULUS

Boom...
Abe to Kuroda over breakfast:

"If debt to GDP of 250% didn't work, let us try 300.."

(2)
Gold likes the Kuroda MMT afterburners in Japan today... Trend break alert: Image
Read 5 tweets
"Theory tells us why Japan didn't inflate" Really? News to most! But two things may explain it - business made a big shift from heavily indebted to positive cash, mirrored by the state's plunge into the red, intermediated by the BOJ... 1/x
In effect, corporate debt was slowly washed to the government whose IOUs were bought by the #centralbank. Reserves issued v these offset bank deposit liabilities to the now flush businesses happy to hold them because #NIRP destroyed transaction/savings balance differences 2/x
Meanwhile, much of #Japan's newly created money was swapped up and used to finance speculative purchases elsewhere in the world - as shown for Grand Cayman 3/x
Read 7 tweets
Reading all these calls for ‘stimulus’, one wonders, if Constantine XI had had a ‘technology we call the printing press’ would his city not have fallen to the besieging Ottomans in 1453.
Shame he hadn’t heard of Gutenberg’s newly invented gizmo...
#Fed #UST #coronavirus #ECB
“The bad news, Tommy, iss for your ze war iss over. Ze good is, your RAF has parachuted in a packet of £5 notes to ease your captivity”
#coronavirus #stimulus #centralbanks #HelicopterMoney
Imagine if, during the Berlin Airlift, General Lucius Clay had not bothered flyng in food and fuel, but had just dropped Greenbacks.

You think Stalin might have chuckled?
#stimulus #coronavirus #COVID2019 #centralbanks #fiscal
Read 9 tweets
🇨🇳 #China (1) | The question is no longer if, but how hard, the #coronavirus will damage Chinese economy (and its trading partners) in 1Q20.
🇨🇳 #China (2) | A blockage of 16 cities (~50 million people) coupled with the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday and prohibition for Cos to return to work soon implies that 1Q will fall below 6% for the first time since QoQ figures are recorded.
🇨🇳 #China (3) | The impact will probably broaden from retail sales, tourism/transportation...

Read 93 tweets
The whole point of the ‘market’ -as we #Asutrians have been telling you for over a century- is that the prices formed by the countless interactions of our teeming humanity convey info of the best possible quality to help co-ordinate the most fruitful use of scarce resources 1/x
- the greater the nodes on that market network; the more individual needs and preferences expressed upon it, the better the solutions: the more enriched the ‘spontaneous order’ it throws up.
The scrambling of price signals by state lever-pullers is one evil we often discuss - 2/x
- what we don’t address often enough in financial markets (theoretically possessed of the densest and most widespread, most rapid, most frictionless networks of all) is the deadening effect of overconcentration and the move to oligopoly under which we are now suffering - 3/x
Read 11 tweets
We’ve argued that understanding the dynamics of total global #liquidity is more important than merely focusing on central bank #rate moves, yet when it comes to both rates and liquidity measures, global central banks have made an important pivot toward #PragmaticEquilibrium. Image
Indeed, we estimate the peak-to-trough contraction in our measure of total global #liquidity was about $1.6 trillion over a span of nearly 20 months, and that corresponded to a flattening in the U.S. #Treasury curve and growing anxiety about growth prospects.
However, we estimate that between now and the end of 2020, the @federalreserve will inject near another $350 billion, the #ECB another $250 billion, and should global FX reserve growth remain steady as it has, it will represent another $350 billion in liquidity growth.
Read 5 tweets
l'impulso dalla creazione di quasi 3Trilioni di $ di riserve non spinge in maniera coerente e costante l'elargizione di nuovo credito da parte delle banche US👉NON C'E' DOMANDA
la moneta creata non "gira" come potrebbe/dovrebbe e lo vedi su
-Linea Nera:Inflazione attesa 5y FWD
...perché accade tutto questo?
perché da oltre 10 anno l'unico intento delle CBs è quello di salvaguardare il sistema finanziario come l'abbiamo sempre "conosciuto"...ma che è morto esattamente 11 anni fa...NON SIAMO MAI USCITI DALLA GFC 2008/09 e non usciremo mai in questo modo
...ed oggi vedremo quanto @potus è ricattabile...ha in mano il jolly per affondare EZ e lo DEVE giocare adesso...👽
ansa.it/europa/notizie…
Read 210 tweets
..poi un giorno ci farete sapere quanto avete alzato shortando italia quando eravate sovranisti (hawkish) e poi rigirandovi una volta tornati euristi (dovish)
Il "flip-flop" di questo governo oltre ad essere un bail-out mascherato per banche IT via BTP, è "gain" per establishment
Establishment IT alla "canna del gas"..."o XI...o MORTE"...
Read 1014 tweets
🇺🇸 #SPX (1) | Equities ⬆ significantly since Dec. lows with participants not taking into account:
1/ the global synchronised slowdown that should be associated with a global trade contraction (YoY) soon
2/ the likely earnings recession in U.S. (and 🇪🇺)
🇺🇸 #SPX (2) | The move can be partly explained by the dovish switch in CBs:
1/ #Fed makes a pause in ⬆ rates and should should stop ⬇ its BS by year-end
2/ #ECB is likely to delay its 1st rate ⬆ and will launch new TLTROs
3/ #BOJ is considering 4 options for extra easing
🇺🇸 #SPX (3) | This easing charge has significant repercussions on asset prices leading to a sharp ⬆ of bonds trading with negative yields (up 60% since Oct. according to a Bloomberg/Barclays index)

#TINA can also explain why investors have rushed into other risky assets
Read 10 tweets
...provano a mostrare che questo sia un "mondo" meraviglioso quanto più possono...Eurodollar timidamente si porta a sostegno di #ES_F ma #FED Fund Futures segnalano ancora ZERO chance di un rate hike e sono ancora in negativo per il 2019!!!
...occhio qui ...liquidità dal Tesoro US...si partiva da 403, siamo 363...arrivo a 320 a marzo e 300 a giugno...è tutta liquidità che arriva al sistema, alla fine sulle riserve delle banche commerciali e che sostiene gli asset finanziari...#ES_F
...aggiornamento sulla liquidità globale,come detto il miglior indicatore di volatilità=liquidità lo avete dalla differenza tra max e min sul ticks Index US,serve uno "spread" >2.500 stabile altrimenti "no party"
CBs e Trump Boys sono in controllo totale, establishment brinda...
Read 594 tweets
...capito perché non se ne uscirà mai..?!?!
Dollar Shortage #FED
...le due chart "chiave"
Seguire #Fed fund rate futures e Eurodollar Futures oltre al libor è l'unica cosa che conta davvero e che impatta l'economia globale e la natura dei mercato aldilà degli algos telecomandati...
Libor up by 0.35 bps
Libor at 2.61813%
SPOT LOIS at 28.513
Read 135 tweets
The #Fed has started reducing its balance sheet, the #ECB has tapered asset purchases, and the #BOJ is also slowing the growth of its purchasing programs; all this has the ultimate effect of draining liquidity from the global financial system. Image
At the same time, UST net issuance (net issuance, net of #Fed activity) is considerably higher in 2018 than the prior five years, and should continue into 2019: at today’s higher yields, this supply of risk-free assets can drain liquidity from risky-asset #markets . Image
These powerful #market technicals help account for higher #yields this week, and the losses witnessed YTD in many fixed income sectors; the attractive carry at the front-end of the U.S. curve helps offset the price depreciation from higher yields, while the back-end gets hit. Image
Read 3 tweets
riprendiamo questo discorso...
la "comica" corsa delle HFT firms ad avvicinarsi quanto più possibile ai server del CME (futures exchange)...
datacenterknowledge.com/cyrusone/cyrus…
...se parlate di mercati, cari i miei governanti, almeno cercate di conoscerne la struttura...ancora con il "floor"
6 maggio del 2010...la Grecia è al centro dell'attenzione mediatica mondiale e da li a poco la #ECB inizierà a comprare debito greco via SMP... ma quel giorno verrà ricordato come la massima espressione dei "fake markets" moderni, dominati dagli algos HFT
cnbc.com/video/30003772…
Read 120 tweets
Mizuho Bank 1/4: As widely expected #BoJ reduced the volume of #JGB purchases. It cut purchases in the 10~25yr segment to ¥180bn and in the 25yrs+ segment to ¥60bn. Both maturity buckets saw a ¥10bn reduction. Despite the reductions, market was firm & the curve flattened a little
Mizuho Bank 2/4: There was also limited reaction in the currency market, as was the case at the most recent reduction in late June in the 5~10yr bucket. The #BoJ will be pleased that the move has been seen as a technical adjustment rather than a policy-relevant change.
Mizuho Bank 3/4: We continue to believe that as long as yields remain low, it will be possible for the #BoJ to further reduce buying levels without provoking accusations of policy tightening.
Read 4 tweets

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