🧵One of the largest problems facing @NATO that the #WarInUkraine has exposed is the lack of adequate stocks of weapons and munitions when considering the rates of munitions consumption in this war. For 20yrs of GWOT the assumption was that a major war of this kind was unlikely1/
The mantra was “just-in-time” when it came to munitions and supplies in the name of efficiency. That “efficiency” is today our vulnerability. The big five US defense contractors are scrambling to surge production. The situation of Europe’s defense industry is borderline dire.2/
The extent to which the proponents of globalization have de-industrialized the country leaves us with little capacity to switch to wartime production in an emergency. In WWII Chrysler could retool from making cars to making tanks. How do you retool Facebook to make missiles.? 3/
Consider the long wait times after orders have been placed for M1A2s, F-35s, etc. Bottom line: We need to invest now in expanding our defense industrial capacity and build stocks of weapons and munitions. The mantra of “just-in-time” must be replaced by “just-in-case.” /End
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🧵Russia’s invasions of #Georgia in 2008 and #Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 are kinetic campaigns in Russia’s hybrid war against the West for the last 20yrs. Other than Eastern flank countries, Europe has not yet fully awakened to this reality. Let’s focus on RUS information ops.1/
Estimates put Russia's "white budget" expenditures on foreign media manipulation at more than $1.5 billion annually. At the same time, European institutions dedicated to countering Russian disinformation remain under-resourced and understaffed. 2/
Russia deploys non-military instruments to corrupt Western institutions &subvert political processes. Disinformation operations have been an integral part of RUS way of warfare. Since 2022 they have increased, targeting Western societies to undercut their support for #Ukraine 3/
🧵Russia sees it war against #Ukraine as a war against Europe, the United States, and the collective democratic West. Europe, the US, and the West are seen in Moscow as an enemies of Russia that must be destroyed. This view is foundational to Putinism, to Russian imperialism. 1/
Most of Western analysts seek to understand Russia through a rational lens, with a cost-benefit analysis as the foundation of how Russia sees the world. This is wrong. This conflict is fundamentally about civilizational differences between Russia and the West. 2/
Let's try to understand and accept that when it comes to politics, culture eats strategy for breakfast. This is where we are when it comes to Russia's hate of Ukraine. It's not about interests, for Russia would have gained so much more in Europe by abstaining from aggression.3/
🧵Eastern Europe became free after the implosion of the Soviet empire because the Russian military was pushed out of the region. The last 20yrs of EU energy policy of increasing reliance on Russian gas gave Moscow an opening to return to Europe, with results in plain view. 1/
It's high time for Brussels, Berlin, and Paris to learn the lesson that as long as Russia remains on its imperial path there is no space for Moscow in European politics, as Russia's interests and ambitions fundamentally clash with what democracies and the West stand for. 2/
The Russian invasion of #Ukraine is not only an unjustified brutal attack on a sovereign state only because it wants to chart its own course independent of Moscow's wishes. It is an assault on the values & rules that undergird the transatlantic community of free nations. 3/
🧵 A word of advice for all those "realists" among Western elites who oppose support for #Ukraine: Finally, once and for all bury the Yalta mindset. Understand the Russia is no more entitled to a sphere of influence than a gangster is entitled to keep the spoils of a robbery. 1/
Time to set aside our double standard whereby when it comes to #Russia, we don't enforce the rules, but instead hope for a good tsar (Gorbachev, Yeltsin) with whom we can (to quote Lady Thatcher) "do business." We should also set aside the nonsense about Russian high culture. 2/
Russian culture must be seen in its totality -- it's not just Dostoyevsky, Tolstoy or ballet; it's first and foremost the Gulag, prisons, firing squads, rape and torture. It's the culture of violence and theft as a mode of governance. It's an empire awash in blood. 3/
🧵I have been thinking why so many in our policy circles show so little appreciation of what Russia's victory against Ukraine would mean for Europe and for global security. First, the Russian narrative is that they are not fighting just Ukraine, but @NATO and the West. 1/
Hence, for Moscow this would be a civilizational win, placing revisionist imperialist Russia along @NATO's entire flank, increasing exponentially the risk of a wider war in #Europe. Russia would be convinced that the West lacks the staying power in a fight, an press further. 2/
#China would draw similar conclusions, making the likelihood of a kinetic confrontation in the Indo-Pacific that much more likely. The US would be faced again with a two-frontier crisis, and an even closely knit Sino-Russian alliance united in its opposition to the West 3/
🧵With all the focus on #Ukraine, I have not seen much written about possible end-states in Russia. The traditional paradigm has been that imperial Russia (including the USSR) historically has goon through cycles of fracturing and re-centralization. 1/
It could be said that Putinism is another cycle in reconsolidation following Yeltsin's cмутное время, and indeed it appears so. But in this case the new "tsar" has also launched a war at a time when #Russia's resources were but a pale shadow of its imperial past. 2/
So at least consider that this time for Russia there may be no "do-overs" and that there are points in history when empire end. Could it be that we are looking at the Russian empires coming fragmentation, with consequences that will reverberate worldwide. 3/