Thread by @spartyflyboy

Quo Vadis Rossija? 🧵
Looking at the #Ukraine war we tend to see the russian ultra nationalists as one block. But while they might share a desire for a mystically strong russia as global player is shared, there might be a chance for peace among the hawks.
Check out this man:
1/n

He is russian, basically saying that putin is ruining russia's future in a criminal way - and he's alive.
This is colonel-general Leonid Ivashov, head of the all russian officers assembly. Ex chief of the Academy for Geopolitical Problems and mil. coordinator for the CSTO.
2/n

Ivashov is well connected, rumored to have support from ex FSB generals, purportedly contributed to Dugins "Foundations of Geopolitics". One would assume that such a man is all in with putins mission to restore a mythical russia and demonstrate the obsolescence of #NATO .
3/n

It yet appears that in the ultra nationalist bloc there is a powerful faction positioned against the war with Ukraine. Ivashov appears to have been vanguard of this faction as he published the appeal below to all russian officers on the eve of the war.
4/n
ooc.su/news/obrashhen…

He stayed critical of the invasion yet less and less visible. He remarkably stayed alive, giving us a hint that his faction must be quite powerful.
Later in 2022 another critic of the war gained visibility, someone equally dedicated to a similar vision for russia:
Igor Girkin
5/n

Girkin/Strelkov turned around from a staunch pro war stance to being increasingly critical of the regime. At times questioning the sense of operations, chances of winning and talking about the demise of russia. While staying quite alive.
This suggests he has powerful backers.
6/n

Now we are just one week from putins speech before the RF Federal Assembly on Feb 21 2023. One year of a devastating war and Leonid Ivashov speaks again.
His analysis is devastating. Picking up on his appeal from 2022 he concludes things turned worse.
7/n
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

It appears he speaks for a faction that wishes the war wouldn't have happened. A group of staunch hawks that fear further escalation leads to even more devastating consequences for RF. Who see the war as a criminal act of a regime that betrays RF's future for self interest.
8/n

This is conclusive with his 2022 analysis that while NATO and US are adversaries there was a managed balance of power. Ivashov seems to see China as main competitor. He puts an emphasis on the war being a cop out for a regime failing to create a working system of governance.
9/n

Ivashov is particularly outspoken about the corruption. For a nationalist with similar vision of russian greatness like Dugin and Strelkov a corrupt regime that plunders the country does not serve this goal. His attack is directed at putin who shaped this system to his needs
10/n

Soviet roots are invoked, speaking of "just wars", of real threats instead of imaginary ones. He talks about concern for Russian AND Ukranian lives, talks about Ukraine's right to defend herself.
And as nationalist Ivanov complains about the depoliticized population in RF.
11/n

Iavashov hints at the coming propaganda campaign. He is noticeably appalled by the potential abuse of the grand russian idea to justify a war that is in his mind a danger to those very core russian interests.
Not all what he predicts comes true though. NATO did not engage.
12/n

Interesting in his 2023 statements is the analysis of China/US relations. It might well be that this is an indirect hint that CN is the main competitor and putins regime puts russia in danger of becoming a dependent entity to CN.
Another betrayal of the grand russian idea.
13/n

Of special note is the time he chooses to speak up. The regime seems to be poised to escalate. Not only in russia and Ukraine but also in Moldova, eventually BY or Georgia. On the eve of a potentially grand speech he is short from calling putin & co insane megalomaniacs.
14/n

Concluding, there might be a chance for change in RF and peace in Ukraine where one is least likely to look:
With the hawks, the nationalists.
With those who hate a regime that destroys the RF, it's people and prevents russia from reaching the greatness they desire for her.
END