1/
Remember always that US media/news outlet keeps saying "US debt is unsustainable bla bla" or "US will default on its debt soon...". It is bogus headline.
Alan Greenspan (former FED Chairman) said: "Look, US can pay any debt it wants because it has the ability to print money".
Remember always that US media/news outlet keeps saying "US debt is unsustainable bla bla" or "US will default on its debt soon...". It is bogus headline.
Alan Greenspan (former FED Chairman) said: "Look, US can pay any debt it wants because it has the ability to print money".
2/
So, US will always pay its debt, by issuing more debt. Of course the number will always go higher but who cares?
US will never have any problem of paying its enormous debt. Then what's the problem??
The only problems that US/USD/FED have are:
So, US will always pay its debt, by issuing more debt. Of course the number will always go higher but who cares?
US will never have any problem of paying its enormous debt. Then what's the problem??
The only problems that US/USD/FED have are:
3/
1. The trust of USD from other countries. This is the most significant one. BRICS and other alternative like gold posses real threat to USD existence.
2. The money printed that are used to buy real stuffs/commodities, including #silversqueeze causing shortage.
1. The trust of USD from other countries. This is the most significant one. BRICS and other alternative like gold posses real threat to USD existence.
2. The money printed that are used to buy real stuffs/commodities, including #silversqueeze causing shortage.
4/
Remember, the FED can print any amount digitally, but it can't print physical stuffs. The limited qty of physical vs the unlimited number. The result is clear: weakened USD strength over time (but not yet causing hyperinflation).
Remember, the FED can print any amount digitally, but it can't print physical stuffs. The limited qty of physical vs the unlimited number. The result is clear: weakened USD strength over time (but not yet causing hyperinflation).
5/
USD will eventually get weaker over time because of this nature. The question is how fast? If USD gets weakened so fast it becomes hyperinflation, (i.e. price keep doubling in less than 1 year).
USD will eventually get weaker over time because of this nature. The question is how fast? If USD gets weakened so fast it becomes hyperinflation, (i.e. price keep doubling in less than 1 year).
6/
Physical shortage of one commodity can cause a temporary spike but unlikely to cause hyperinflation. See Nickel price for example, it was traded avg $20k in late 2021 and in beginning of 2022 it doubled to $40k just for few days...
Physical shortage of one commodity can cause a temporary spike but unlikely to cause hyperinflation. See Nickel price for example, it was traded avg $20k in late 2021 and in beginning of 2022 it doubled to $40k just for few days...
7/
There was a "cheating" in LME by manipulating the rule, but still we can't see prolonged hyperinflation in commodity because: there are still miners operating just fine. So, for prolonged/consistent hyperinflation to occur, one of the following condition must happen first:
There was a "cheating" in LME by manipulating the rule, but still we can't see prolonged hyperinflation in commodity because: there are still miners operating just fine. So, for prolonged/consistent hyperinflation to occur, one of the following condition must happen first:
8/
1. Total output miners around the world reduced significantly like from total 1000 miners down into 80 miners left (this is near impossible to happen except in WW3).
2. The lost of trust in USD, it no longer be used or it is being dumped.
1. Total output miners around the world reduced significantly like from total 1000 miners down into 80 miners left (this is near impossible to happen except in WW3).
2. The lost of trust in USD, it no longer be used or it is being dumped.
9/
Now what's the difference between no.1 and no.2 ?
In no.1 when there is real shortage because of much lower output from miners, we will also see gold ratio to that commodity spike as well. For example if silver has no miners in this world starting today, then ...
Now what's the difference between no.1 and no.2 ?
In no.1 when there is real shortage because of much lower output from miners, we will also see gold ratio to that commodity spike as well. For example if silver has no miners in this world starting today, then ...
10/
..not only silver price in USD goes higher than $100/oz, but also Silver to Gold ratio break significantly higher too.
Now the no.2 case (when USD lost its trust) is that the Gold to commodity ratio will be normal but when priced in USD will seem much higher (or pricier).
..not only silver price in USD goes higher than $100/oz, but also Silver to Gold ratio break significantly higher too.
Now the no.2 case (when USD lost its trust) is that the Gold to commodity ratio will be normal but when priced in USD will seem much higher (or pricier).
11/
Now you know how to differentiate between physical shortage and the lost of purchasing power of USD when you see the price of a commodity (or any physical goods) is up.
Now you know how to differentiate between physical shortage and the lost of purchasing power of USD when you see the price of a commodity (or any physical goods) is up.
12/
So, the main cause of future hyperinflation will not be the US default on its debt, nor it will be the bond rates >5% nor the interest rates. It will be about TRUST from other countries. There will not be hyperinflation as long as there are miners operating just fine.
So, the main cause of future hyperinflation will not be the US default on its debt, nor it will be the bond rates >5% nor the interest rates. It will be about TRUST from other countries. There will not be hyperinflation as long as there are miners operating just fine.
13/
Then how about #silversqueeze ? Isn't that aiming to physical shortage on silver?
Yes it is important movement, it will definitely help to weaken the USD indirectly. For me, I see it as the Big Catalyst but not the main cause. The main cause will be: US lost the WW3.
Then how about #silversqueeze ? Isn't that aiming to physical shortage on silver?
Yes it is important movement, it will definitely help to weaken the USD indirectly. For me, I see it as the Big Catalyst but not the main cause. The main cause will be: US lost the WW3.
14/
Because a shortage in one commodity will cause price to temporarily higher, reducing demand and causing people seeking alternative commodity (e.g. replacement of silver).
But if USD has lost its trust and fear of WW3 + Nuclear wars, it becomes a nail in the USD coffin.
Because a shortage in one commodity will cause price to temporarily higher, reducing demand and causing people seeking alternative commodity (e.g. replacement of silver).
But if USD has lost its trust and fear of WW3 + Nuclear wars, it becomes a nail in the USD coffin.
15/
Physical shortage issue is temporary and can be alleviated by: higher price => lower demand & higher output.
BUT when TRUST in USD is gone, it can never be recovered. When replacement of USD by BRICS has come, USD will also finished.
This is the main cause of hyperinflation.
Physical shortage issue is temporary and can be alleviated by: higher price => lower demand & higher output.
BUT when TRUST in USD is gone, it can never be recovered. When replacement of USD by BRICS has come, USD will also finished.
This is the main cause of hyperinflation.
16/
So, hyperinflation in USD in general (not just specific commodity) can only happen when USD has lost its trust (usage) around the world.
When it is dumped everywhere like used toilet paper will then we see Weimar / Zimbabwe / Venezuelan-like future.
So, hyperinflation in USD in general (not just specific commodity) can only happen when USD has lost its trust (usage) around the world.
When it is dumped everywhere like used toilet paper will then we see Weimar / Zimbabwe / Venezuelan-like future.
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