These are hugely important days for U.K. diplomacy. One might even call it a key moment in the gradual 'great normalisation' of U.K. post-Brexit &post-Covid foreign policy in Europe that started with the Russian attack on #Ukraine . 1/
It was not so very long ago, in 2019, when UK-EU acrimony was at its peak, that the U.K. government (then under @BorisJohnson ) positively shunned the #MunichSecurityConference . Boosterish calls for Global Britain were everywhere, but actual dialogue with allies was not./2
Now, the #MSC2023 is being attended by @RishiSunak @JamesCleverly and @BWallaceMP . Meanwhile a deal on the #NorthernIrelandProtocol may be imminent, and something else *might* be in the air: Lobbying for a 🇬🇧candidate to succeed @jensstoltenberg as @NATO Secretary-General?/3
The U.K. defence secretary @BWallaceMP had a realistic chance of becoming Prime Minister. Twice. He didn’t take it. His main interest has always been security. A few days before #MSC2023 he hinted in an interview that he might be interested in the NATO job. Interesting timing./4
The 'Global Britain’-concept has been quietly dropped by the U.K. Government. That doesn’t mean they no longer care about the Indo-Pacific (@JamesCleverly is discussing it at #MSC2023 ), but 'Europe’& 'the world’ are no longer pitted against each other rhetorically./5
It seems to me that the U.K. government is on a quest to demonstrate that , in spite of #Brexit , the U.K. remains primarily a Euro-Atlantic power (as stated in the Integrated Review). This notion still needs to be normalised in many places in Europe. /6
Meanwhile, @UKLabour is also strongly represented at #msc23 , informing the world of their support for #Ukraine (working against the notion that this is just a Tory thing), &publicising their idea (rumoured about for some time) of a U.K.-EU defence agreement./7
Needless to say, the challenges @RishiSunak is faced with are enormous, and the biggest test may come at home and not abroad. The NIP deal might still fail, or if there is one, the ERG &DUP might try to torpedo it. /8
No UK charm offensive to its neighbours will make up for EU membership. But if @RishiSunak and the EU succeed in agreeing on a deal that is acceptable domestically in the U.K. this would go a long way in putting the low point of the relationship in 2019 firmly in the past. /9
Perhaps of interest @alexhallhall @EdArnold_RUSI @APHClarkson @CarloMasala1 @jana_puglierin @Mij_Europe @chrisgreybrexit
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