Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Quick Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on February 13, 2023
Situation seems to be quite clear this morning as Ru have zero success almost everywhere..
Alas only ONE single area is under Ru constant pressure & they are gaining ground : North #Bakhmut

2/ this drives me mad actually
(the map is quite "conservative" regarding the extent of Russian control over #Paraskoviivka #Парасковіївка , and i think as stated last night that they #UAarmy is just withdrawing from the city, but this was the "state" of my knowledge last night.

3/ i'm waiting for new infos today, & also maybe we'll have better geoloc of the area. who knows.
So it seems now that (as usual i should say) #Bakhmut will fall not because of 95% of it's defensive line, but only because commanding leaders did not sent (as i explained back then)

4/ enough reinforcements and forces to secure the hills above #blahodatne (past #Soledar victory)
and now, let's be clear, there is only one more step for Russian to gain, & force the entire extraodinary forces of #Bakhmut to leave..
if #Yahidne #Ягідне is taken (2 click south)

5/ then that will be "it" ladys and gents! because the "inside" road that is going to downtown will be under Ru control and as the #Ivaniske road is no more in use (even if not under direct Ru control) & there is no path in between, that will be it... over. gone!

side note :

6/ i never ever questioned the decisions made by the high commands (even if tons of reports of local soldiers not being happy at all because of tons of diff reasons) because of tactical or operational level decision, mostly because not only i understand them all as being logic

7/ but also because i thought it was a great plan to destroy as efficiently and as much as Russians you can in this particular setup, but, for that to works, you got to really commit to the fact that if you are asking 7 great "units" (2 brigades down in the city and around)

8/ you might not give the defense of very important area only to new coming TDF with a new "shift" (rotation) couple weeks ago, and then do not send EVERYTHING possible to stop the breaching of your security perimeter.
that's what happened.

9/ Also & that's another long talk (here limited in writings) but seriously you have to consider at one point that maybe you are gonna lose the double of men on a specific couple of days doing that, but you give yourself 15 more days, grinding them in other locations in #Bakhmut

10/ we can talk about the "psychology" behind this and sometimes the trap you are getting yourself into thinking "we don't care of this tiny location..RU can have it, not really pushing this back we are not sending reinforcements" because UKR could have done that ! easily !

11/ to prevent it would have so much "easier". tons of good troops are waiting in the back. tons.

Also it is sad, because i read & hear reports of dozens units (like Belarussian ones) that have perfect control of their parts of the city right now. they found their rhythm/groove

12/ so all this can be "it" right now if Ukrainians high commanders does not decide to take real proper actions, to oust these effing orcs out these hills for good and to be able to stay there weeks more just doing like this morning :

13/ right now, and to emphasize about it, they are preparing/drilling for major attacks like in couple months down the road, and of course, as said, #Bakhmut in itself does not matter/represent anything special (& by the way ppl putting out "Bakhmut holds" is quite dumb because

14/ if you accept to" character-ize" on such a level a "place" when Russians will take it, they are going to produce 10k meme to mock this and it will break the heart of 100k people out there who tried to cherrish it), but it's a Macro point of view...
you got to hear also

15/ on the micro level, what the units are saying to improve situation -not talking about ammo that sometimes you lack of course- (that is SPECIFICALLY western fault actually!!! Ukraine as for it LOUD & CLEAR since day one!).

i could go on and on.. but that's about it for now

16/ nota bene : all the other areas are safe & sounds, really, no worries at all, forget about the guys and map full concerning such or such areas, it does not matter, Ru are just stuck right now.
(until next big waves of attacks that should come in near future - Ru r preparing)