There are many continuities in war. Every new war is an aggregation of the ideas, institutions, technologies, and techniques that have preceded it. A thread on historical continuities after a year of war in #Ukraine. 1/25 🧵mickryan.substack.com/p/a-year-of-wa…
2/ If we peer close enough, we can see the different historical layers that inform, shape, and strangle military effectiveness.
3/ In the Russo-Ukraine War, there are continuities from previous wars that carry through into the strategy, diplomacy, & military operations. There are five important continuities: war as a human endeavor; surprise; alliances; the need for good strategy; and leadership.
4/ War is a continuity in human affairs. Perhaps the most important continuity is that human competition is an enduring element of our existence on this plant. It may recede at times, such as in the wake of the Cold War. mickryan.substack.com/p/a-year-of-wa…
5/ But war is a constant feature of the interplay of nations, groups of nations, and non-state entities. Perhaps the most important lesson from the past year of war in Ukraine is that there are still those who believe war is the best way to get what they want.
6/ This war like all others before it will be settled on the ground. While other domains are vital for strategy and combat, it is on the ground where people live, where territory is taken, where soldiers fight & where politicians set objectives and negotiate termination of wars. 
7/ Surprise. Another continuity in war is surprise. This is usually defined as striking at a place, time or location in a manner for which an adversary is not prepared.
8/ Surprise, which is embraced in the Western and Eastern traditions of war, aims to shock an adversary and overwhelm them when they are their weakest, or when they least expect it.
9/ There have many surprises over the past year in the Russo-Ukraine War. Most have been surprised by Russian incompetence; pre-war studies of Russian reform did not comprehend the full range of weaknesses in the Russian military.
10/ We (& Russia) have been surprised by the rcommitment of alliances like NATO and other institutions such as the European Union in their ongoing support for Ukraine. Events like the attack on the Kerch Bridge & the Ukrainian drone boat attack on Sevastopol were also surprises.
11/ No matter how sophisticated or advanced our military and intelligence organisations might be, the agency of humans & their desire to surprise adversaries remains constant. Clausewitz described this as friction, the difference between the theory and practice of war.
12/ Alliances. A 3rd continuity is the importance of alliances. Throughout history, clever tribal leaders and statemen have increased their military potential by entering into partnerships and alliances with their neighbors.
13/ Alliances are also essential in the 21st century. A moribund NATO has been infused with energy and purpose since 24 February 2022. While Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it has demonstrated a resolve that had been absent before now.
14/ It is a demonstration of why alliances – with the right purpose - remain an important part of how the West achieves collective defence for their sovereignty, prosperity and for democracy ideals more broadly.
15/ Good strategy matters. Strategy is a term for which there is no agreed definition. At heart it is about aligning national objectives with the means & ends to achieve objectives. Colin Gray described it as “a bridge between purpose and action”.
16/ There are many examples of effective strategy development and its implementation from the war. There are also examples of poor strategy.Assumptions matter in strategy, and the Russians have so far failed in this regard.
17/ They assumed that the Ukrainians would not fight for long, that their government would collapse, that Ukraine was not a unified state and that the West would not decisively intervene. These failures have had catastrophic consequences for both Russians and Ukrainians.
18/ At the same time, the Ukrainians have been outstanding at integrating all of their national assets into a single unified strategy to repel the Russian invasion. Their strategy of corrosion has attacked all elements of Russian fighting power: physical, intellectual & moral.
19/ Leadership. This is an important continuity. This has been on display most compellingly from Volodymyr Zelensky. He has shown courage, empathy and led those who need him most – the Ukrainian people. He has also reignited an understanding that freedom must be defended.
20/ Zelensky’s words “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition” electrified his people and his soldiers. In the past year we have seen the birth of someone who has become a very fine wartime leader. president.gov.ua/en
21/ In the past 12 months we have also witnessed the impact of good combat leadership has. Ukrainians have prepared their junior leaders to take the initiative and lead their soldiers by example.
22/ The Russians have demonstrated terrible battlefield leadership at every level. Rob Johnson recently described the Russian approach to their invasion as Dysfunctional Warfare. They have been very poor at combined arms and air-land integration.
23/ There has been a tremendous amount of continuity in this war from previous conflicts. This knowledge is a foundation for recognising where change does occur. It underpins learning and adaptation of tactics, organisations, strategy and equipment.
24/ The changes in the character of war, which have become apparent over the past year of war, will be focus of the next part in this Year of War series. mickryan.substack.com/p/a-year-of-wa…
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