Thread by @wentisung

#China releases its comprehensive official position paper on #Ukraine today.

It seems like: 1) a very thinly veiled attempt to help Russia achieve an upper hand over Ukraine, though 2) superficially disguised as a call for peace to deflect Western criticism. A short🧵

2/ Paper's Point 2 calls for 'prevent #bloc confrontation"' (防止形成陣營對抗).

What does that mean? It means nobody should help Ukraine. Russia is on its own and has essentially no 'bloc' or other countries overtly helping it. But Ukraine does...

3/ Ukraine gets significant ongoing assistance from Western countries.

So when China says the Ukraine-Russia war should not be a contest between 'blocs', China is effectively saying Ukraine shouldn't get support from other countries in the Western camp.

4/ That reduces the war from a #multilateral confrontation (West vs Russia) into a #bilateral confrontation (Ukraine vs Russia).

In that one-one one scenario that China is calling for, Russia will be a lot more likely to prevail over the smaller Ukraine.

5/ Likewise Point 3 calls for working towards 'ceasefire' (最終達成全面停火). Ofc everyone wants it, question is "ceasefire on whose terms?"

By saying the war should be a bilateral contest, one Russia is more likely to win, China is making ceasefire on Russia's terms more likely

6/ Point 10 is the most obvious. China again calls for end to any and all unilateral sanctions, and says the only appropriate sanctions are ones authorized by United Nations Security Council.

7/ As a UNSC permanent member, Russia can veto UNSC votes. So if only UNSC-approved sanctions are ok, there won't be any. i.e. China's statement is saying there shouldn't be any sanctions against Russia, regardless of Russian behavior.

8/ In short: Logically, since ceasefire on Russian terms would be a probable natural outcome of China's proposal, this Chinese official statement is Beijing's way of saying let's all standby and, thru our inaction, enable Russia to win its war of aggression against Ukraine.

9/ Reminder that this is consistent w. prior Chinese statements.

E.g. Point 2 says: "The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly."

Which legitimate security interests? I wrote abt it b4:

https://twitter.com/wentisung/status/1627867337746710528

10/ In Sept 2022, China said:

"China understands and supports matters concerning Russia's core interests."

"As US & NATO crept up onto Russia's doorstep, Russia undertook actions it deemed appropriate. China understands this and has provided concrete #support in various ways".

11/ "China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis" paper appears to be one such support. If ppl misread it as China's commitment to neutrality on Russia-Ukraine, all the better.

English version:
fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…

Chinese ver.:
fmprc.gov.cn/web/zyxw/20230…