This is so important in understanding the poor quality of UK homes, the stagnation of the UK economy over the last 12 years of low interest rates, and the failures of policy leading to the #Brexit disaster for national psyche.
Such a period 2010-2023 of near-zero interest rates clearly leads to over-investment in *monetary/financial assets” such as second-hand housing, and new forms of money, such as crypto. Real investment in the meantime languishes because of poor expectations of real growth.
And expectations of real growth in UK GDP, well-being, welfare, what you like, health, & education, all weaken. #NetZero policies & measures were too weak, badly planned, or abandoned.
This has led to today’s deplorable circumstances of the Russian war leading to energy-price massive volatility, which then acerbates the effects of #Brexit, Covid, and years of damaging incompetent, economic policymaking.
Our #CostofLivingCrisis needs radical new policies for its short-term resolution, hence our Conference @CTNTE next Wednesday 8 March in Downing College, Cambridge. The @sunak govt follows a succession of weak & smug PMs culminating in the @truss@kwateng debacle of end 2022.
Other nations look on in amazement & shock as the UK declines into division & acrimony. All economists, except for the charlatans/shills of the extreme right & left, are agog at the living evidence of unhinged policy making, on the hoof, irrespective of damages likely to be done.
This has been an unprecedented period of economic chaos for the UK.
The period of government malfeasance, incompetence, & corruption will *never be forgotten & never be forgiven* by many of my fellow UK citizens, which have had their families broken by #Brexit or heartbroken by Covid policy corruption. Every day brings new appalling revelations.
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A startling fact:
In the IPCC AR3 Working Group III 2001 report on "Mitigation," Chapter 3 titled "Technological and Economic Potential of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction," does include a footnote related to the use of General Equilibrium models by the US government.
The footnote states:
"One prominent example of a disaggregated model is the NEMS model used by US government agencies. However, NEMS and many other models currently in use omit some technologies, such as electric and hybrid vehicles,
or may not model technological changes fully, thus posing limitations for long-term technological analysis (APEC, 2000; Laitner and Brown, 2001)."
To all my followers. I’m preparing my presentation for the @CTNTE Conference to be held next Wed. In short, the UK can learn many valuable lessons from the Mexican experience in addressing the inflation problems caused by the knock-on effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I have tweeted before about the Mexican policy solution to the #CostofLivingCrisis , and will retrieve the tweets if I have time. Russia is using oil & gas prices as a war weapon against the West. We need to respond in kind with fresh anti-inflation policies. In summary we need:
1. a new basic-needs inflation index; 2. negotiated links of wage-rate increases to inflation using this index; 3. govt-led food policy in which the large food companies work together to achieve economies of scale in producing basic goods and services;
#MAID#AssistedDying The Canadian Government is postponing a change in the law relating to this very controversial topic. The @rcpsych psychiatrists are making a fuss. The pseudoscience should be immediately denounced as such & those professing and/or practicing it investigated.
The #pseudoscience of psychiatry has done great damage to humanity across the world. The practitioners should be assumed guilty, rather than innocent, and investigated for crimes against humanity.
All @Psychiatry is bogus cant, starting with Freud the serial abuser of gentlewomen in Vienna and London. The couch🧐☹️👽💀. Some mean good, but in my experience all do bad, whatever the motives. Much of their motivation is sick, devious, and evil.
This thread is of great interest to urban planners post-pandemic. I’m sure that there is a similar movement of people from UK and I suspect Irish urban centres to their periphery. Or to the countryside.
My guess as to the reason for the long-term movement at least since the 1990s and its recent reversal is that a steady trend had developed in which people moved to get a job, or to be with friends and relatives, or they followed traditional migration routes.
The pandemic destroyed long-term built-up habits and routines, including family life. It frightened people and forced them to rethink their lives and life styles. It broke supply chains, but also demand expectations, leaving us frustrated and disappointed.
I have heard this being said many times, & I believe that it may be the case. Indeed, I would not be surprised to learn that of the main reasons for Brexit was that the English elite felt that it was much too risky staying in the EU because they may stand to lose out financially.
Maybe they - the Etonians and their American pals (Trump, Mr SB & two-shirts in prison) thought that some of their vast fortunes (compared with the rest of us) would have to be paid over to the tax man. A bit like @nadhimzahawi with his dad and his dodgy tax affairs.
It aways looked suspicious that just as the EU was preparing to bring in new money-laudering laws, & bringing the banks to heel, some of the rich private-equity buccaneers and wide boys from East London would have a go at breaking the UK for their own ends.
What utter nonsense. I’m an economist, who has worked on the whys, hows, whens & wheres of economic growth both in the UK, its regions & countries, the EU & globally. I’ve been researching into economic growth since I joined the CGP in 1965 under Sir Richard Stone.
Economic growth requires strong government & regulation for the economy to function efficiently. It is obvious that banks, companies & people, all have to be regulated or we shall anarchy. Or the state of the union that we have observed ever since you @Tories came to power.
Economic growth requires: stable govt, a vision of community well being, a consensus 5-year plan, high share on investment in GDP, public provision of networked and safety services (water, energy, transport, health, security, govt). You have failed. A loser.