1) Excess deaths in the #pandemic dropped below Quebec's baseline to a negative 3% at the end of January after surging by more than 23% early last December. In this thread, I will examine what the latest mortality statistics may augur. 
2) First, though, it's worth defining excess mortality. It's "a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone," according to our World in Data, which has been tracking this international crisis reliably.
3) On Jan. 22 last year, in the midst of the first #Omicron wave, excess deaths in Quebec soared by 26.2%. You will recall that intensive-care units were overflowing at the time, and this compelled Premier François Legault to declare a months-long curfew across the province.
4) In terms of #COVID19 deaths alone, the province reported a total of 91 such fatalities for the month of February this year. That compares with 742 fatalities for the same month in 2022 and 504 for the same month in 2021. So clearly, the mortality situation is improving here.
5) Worldwide, #COVID19 deaths have plunged to their lowest level in nearly three years, as the chart below reveals. In light of all these statistics — both locally and globally — does this mean the #pandemic is over? The short answer is no.
6) True, decreasing mortality suggests higher immunity as a result of mass vaccination and previous infections. But COVID is still killing people, 19 Quebecers to be exact, in the first two days of March alone. And the virus is still mutating at a much faster rate than expected.
7) What's more, persistent and debilitating symptoms are afflicting an estimated 140 million — yes, that's 140 million — #pandemic survivors around the world. And people continue to be hospitalized for and with #COVID, more than 1,300 in Quebec alone as of last Friday.
8) These #COVID hospitalizations are placing enormous pressure on weakened health-care systems around the world, and making it harder to reduce the backlog of surgeries. In Quebec, the backlog stands at more than 166,000 elective and urgent operations. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/pa…
9) As the third anniversary of the #pandemic approaches on March 11, no one can predict with certainty when it will end, given its highly unpredictable nature. But at the very least, decreasing #COVID mortality is a welcome trend. End of thread.
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