Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 5 20 tweets 20 min read
#ExtremeWeather #Mozambique #Madagascar #Zimbabwe UPDATE THREAD

The Cyclone Freddy event which initiated a humanitarian emergency in South East Africa (exacerbating exisiting folldinghas now been underway for a fortnight and is ongoing. Freddy is expected to strengthen and……
The quoted tweet in the OP above covers the period February 21-27.

This thread provides an update series of 24 hour satellite animations from 27th Feb till March 5th. But the event is not yet over. The latest UNHCR emergency reponse……
So far 1.75 million people have been affected - and 163,000 were affected as of March 3rd - when this […[ report (the most recent) was issued.
The current model forecast simulation cluster shows Cyclone Freddy making a second crossing of the Mozambique channel - strengthening as it does and then heading west into Mozambique as it did before.
This animation shows the last 24 hours - Freddy is approaching the coast of Madagascar on a return journey and is now in roughly the same place that it was when it strengthened and made its first crossing of the Mozambique Channel.
1/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 24-25 February
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
2/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 25-26 February
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
3/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 26-27 February (Day 6)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
4/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 27-28 February (Day 7)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
5/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 28 Feb- 1 March (Day 8)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
6/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 28 Feb- 1 March (Day 9)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
7/8 : Cyclone Freddy - 1-2 March (Day 10)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
8/10 : Cyclone Freddy - 2-3 March (Day 11
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
9/10 : Cyclone Freddy - 3-4 March (Day 12)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

#ExtremeWeather #LossAndDamages #ClimateChange #Freddy #Mozambique #Madagascar
10/10 : Cyclone Freddy - 3-4 March (Day 13)
Each image in this series is a 24 hour animation.

NOTE: While this brings us up to date #Freddy is not yet finished. Model guidance indicates a 180 o turn to a north easterly heading is now about to happen.

This will likely involve……
Here is a 90 hour PWAT forecast, through till Thursday.

The storm it shows is a monster sized cyclone - 700kms across - strengthened by warm waters and atmospheric water PWAT in very high quantities - due to all the recent convection in the area & continued flows from the NE.
This view shows the full water vapour transport picture over the coming 16 days from the GFS model. It indicates extreme rains over Zimbabwe and parts of South Africa.
And finally a rainfall solution forecast over 16 days - same GFS3 run. This shows a lot of rain in central and Southern Africa - indicating widespread flooding over very large areas.
P.S. To help viewing - here's a large static image of the 16 day total rain forecast wich shows significant (flood potential rainfall) over:

& Botswana.

The model shows Freddy's remnantsl exiting over South Africa.

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More from @althecat

Mar 6
It appears that the TPLF negotiators Tsadkan and Reda are continuing to try to establish a narrative & support for a narrative that they will play a role in Tigray’s interim govt. My clear understanding (well sourced) is that they will not do so. SHORT THREAD.
I have just posted this short thread in response to @AnnGarrison and @iyoba4u (see quoted thread) 🧵 is in response to the report in “the reporter” posted yesterday of a nearly 400 strong TPLF and TDF dominated assembly in Tigray which came up with this unworkable proposal.
Here is the original thread from @iyoba4u about this with a link to “The Reporter” article. This could be a good place to discuss this further.

My understanding of this “meeting” in Tigray is also that the political opposition groups in Tigray are far from happy with this……
Read 8 tweets
Feb 28
This tweet was posted by @EmmanuelMacron in the immediate aftermath (it finished 20/11 am) of #COP27 in Egypt. And the conference appears to be going ahead.

To speed the process of provding relief to poor countries France 🇫🇷 is now proposing “rechannelling” of unused SDRs.
During Cop27 Climate Economist Professor Stern provided an update on the level of finance which is needed to address global climate mitigation and adaptation needs - an eye watering 4 trillion + dollars a year.

I wasn’t aware till recently how much progress was being made.
A couple of weeks ago I attended a German video media event (in english) discussing World Bank Reform. The proposals for which are considered by many to be inadequate. Particularly considered against continued World Bank financing for fossil fuel infrastructure.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 27
2. Landfall in Madagascar 21 Feb
3. #Freddy exits Madagascar and makes its way into the Mozambique Channel and begins to reform. It appears to be being supported in this by an atmosphericn river which may originate in South America. Surface flows of PWAT are in opposite direction.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 26
I think @SimeonBrownMP is impressed that someone is talking about National Policy

… and hoping that will win him some exposure for his daft Ill thought out ideas - ideas which he seems disinterested in even trying to understand.
Tactically drawing attention to a powerful critique of your own policy isn’t really SOP in elections.
I wonder if @SimeonBrownMP remembers how the Don Brash effort to get elected by playing this game failed. And if anything Brashwas playing to a more fertile voting base for dog whistle posturing than NZ had today - he certainly had more profile and polling positives than Luxon.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 24
This account of the Tigray War origins is a self serving pathetic attempt by @martinplaut to pre-empt what he well knows has already been clearly established in numerous authoritative accounts of the war.
The eyewitness accounts include two books by survivors of the shocking massacre in the night of Nov 3rd-4th 2020 when 1000s ENDF forces who had gathered in Mekelle for a handover of the Northern Command were killed. Many had their throats slit as they slept.
Six other outposts of the ENDF in Tigray Region were also scène to surprise late night murder and mayhem, including a base in Dansheha north of Gondar on the road to Humera.

People I spoke to in Alamata Raya on Nov 2O22 also provided accounts of TPLF forces deploying there.
Read 13 tweets
Feb 21
So much for deescalation. #UkraineRussiaWar

Biden visits Ukraine and Russia responds with this….

The likelihood of internal NATO tension around strategy here is increasing. And the Seymour Hersh revelations r.e. Nordstream sabotage are still lingering in the wings.
Three way talks between the EU, Russia and the US are needed to restore a possibility & a semblance of substance to notions this war will not just keep escalating.
This commentary is from January 7th during the lead up to the Leopard Tanks discussion which eventually led to a « compromise » that the US would provide Abrams Heavy Tanks - not withstanding the logistical obstacles.
Read 13 tweets

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