ABC for a human sans bat immune system 🦖
A. We can call SARS-CoV-2 an airborne immunodeficiency virus (AIV) because it exploits unique weaknesses of the human immune system.
These traits were Unthinkable at the start of pandemic spread.
Focus now as we can stop SARS any time.
A. We can call SARS-CoV-2 an airborne immunodeficiency virus (AIV) because it exploits unique weaknesses of the human immune system.
These traits were Unthinkable at the start of pandemic spread.
Focus now as we can stop SARS any time.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1624061828035760133
A. How will we stop SARS?
By stopping the constant, global spread of new variants.
The relevant legal framework is even written for exactly this case: SARS is a notifiable event under IHR 2005.
This is why states are desperate to end the COVID-19 PHEIC.
By stopping the constant, global spread of new variants.
The relevant legal framework is even written for exactly this case: SARS is a notifiable event under IHR 2005.
This is why states are desperate to end the COVID-19 PHEIC.
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1617834099691094018
A. To get a feeling for the viral dynamics—and terminal shortsightedness of national-level policy worldwide—, play around with the great @nextstrain databases.
You cannot work on policy questions whose underlying dynamics you don't understand. It matters.
nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/gl…
You cannot work on policy questions whose underlying dynamics you don't understand. It matters.
nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/gl…
A. We've been over all this more times than I care to count over these three long years. This is a leisurely, evolving thread to offer teasers to anyone who reads.
"Meaning is use": Language never speaks for itself. The magic lies in how we use it. Basics
"Meaning is use": Language never speaks for itself. The magic lies in how we use it. Basics
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1607027615235194880
A. I don't mean to criticize (anymore) or shock people out of complacency. If at all, it's coincidental. No one who slept through three years will rethink thanks to anything I say.
Such threads help us learn and share in public to gain clarity of thought.
Such threads help us learn and share in public to gain clarity of thought.
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1607786505040461827?s=20
A. You don't need to use HIV parallels to explain SARS.
Yet if you don't learn from 40 years of HIV medicine, I can guarantee you will be too slow, given the staggering rates of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and genetic recombination.
Good overview I often share: mdpi.com/1422-0067/24/3…
Yet if you don't learn from 40 years of HIV medicine, I can guarantee you will be too slow, given the staggering rates of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and genetic recombination.
Good overview I often share: mdpi.com/1422-0067/24/3…
A. We learn: (1) Doctors who want to help patients will use the best tools. These are HIV T cell depletion tests to diagnose #LongCovid. China even 'has a cure', an old HIV first-line drug repurposed.
Why does no one talk about this? (2) Western hubris.
Why does no one talk about this? (2) Western hubris.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1631675090629738498
A. Oh well. #A came out stronger than intended, but you get the point. Good systems thinking practice: if you meet resistance - as you do - it can signal that you've reached a high-leverage point and just need to keep pushing for impact. With Dana Meadows, donellameadows.org/archives/lever…
A. What functional name for SARS-CoV-2?
No pun intended! Governments are asking for it. If they let it ripriprip for a few more years, real PR magic will be needed to turn things around if/when desired.
Like HIV at the time, almost certainly a new name.
No pun intended! Governments are asking for it. If they let it ripriprip for a few more years, real PR magic will be needed to turn things around if/when desired.
Like HIV at the time, almost certainly a new name.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1630217433448316929
A. #AirborneAIDS is confronting, but can be good cognitive public health policy:
(1) People deserve words they can understand, to give informed consent to shortened lives; or (2) protect themselves. (3) They need to work for LMIC and people who don't read.
(1) People deserve words they can understand, to give informed consent to shortened lives; or (2) protect themselves. (3) They need to work for LMIC and people who don't read.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1630990867115769869
A. Two important details from Fantini 2023 as few people read these papers:
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1629963033974906880
A. Perhaps counterintuitively, you have to have rigorous test & trace in place to make vaccines and drugs work. The best HIV drugs repurposed for SARS will be useless if patients are not diagnosed and never introduced to care.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1630994185728802816
B. What weakness of the human immune system (HIS)?
@GringoGranadino kindly compiled 120 papers and counting.
@GringoGranadino kindly compiled 120 papers and counting.
https://twitter.com/gringogranadino/status/1632585530629136384
Fortunately we are not at all tired from constant repetition.
Always recall, population-level effects won't be seen until 10-15 years after infection, so we're good to ignore this thead until 2030 or so.
Or after five years? No one knows.
This is a @dbdugger appreciation meme.
Always recall, population-level effects won't be seen until 10-15 years after infection, so we're good to ignore this thead until 2030 or so.
Or after five years? No one knows.
This is a @dbdugger appreciation meme.
ABC for a human sin bat immune system. 🦖
In #A we saw immunological harm from SARS, a betacoronavirus perfected over millions of years to establish viral reservoirs that evade innate and adaptive host immune system through its unique replication process.
In #A we saw immunological harm from SARS, a betacoronavirus perfected over millions of years to establish viral reservoirs that evade innate and adaptive host immune system through its unique replication process.
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1622552666374082562
B. is slightly more hands-on.
Start with these brief articles.
journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.11…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.11…
Start with these brief articles.
journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.11…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.11…
B. A cruel disease, sCJD strikes patients out of nowhere, like the hand of God - hence the 'spontaneous' in sCJD.
As ever, we can eliminate any and all SARS-Associated Neurodegenerative Disease (~SAND) by eliminating COVID-19 just like SARS 2003. However, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creutzfel…
As ever, we can eliminate any and all SARS-Associated Neurodegenerative Disease (~SAND) by eliminating COVID-19 just like SARS 2003. However, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creutzfel…
B. The 99% seem wildly determined to tempt God by "Living with COVID" policy.
We are here to remind you: you focus on the right lever, but confidently push it IN THE WRONG DIRECTION as Jay Forrester foresaw.
My friends, try "Living without COVID" policy.
donellameadows.org/archives/lever…
We are here to remind you: you focus on the right lever, but confidently push it IN THE WRONG DIRECTION as Jay Forrester foresaw.
My friends, try "Living without COVID" policy.
donellameadows.org/archives/lever…
B. It's 99% now in Germany, if you count. It may go well 100 times and end badly on trying God attempt #101.
Do I need to go into theology or statistics to prove the point? We can let it play out without offering advice, but I wouldn't call this 'policy'.
Do I need to go into theology or statistics to prove the point? We can let it play out without offering advice, but I wouldn't call this 'policy'.
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1632345857457631234
B. I can't go into more detail because the necessary research isn't published, or even done yet. It may be months to years for autopsy results to be come in.
Fortunately, you don't need to wait before taking strong action: use the precautionary principle.
Fortunately, you don't need to wait before taking strong action: use the precautionary principle.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1617277380019601411
B. This is no goosechase but scicomm, and a hands-on thread, so let's repeat this stark warning:
Coronavirus vaccines can protect animal hosts, but not humans, permanently because the human immune system was created with a weakness to human coronaviruses.
Coronavirus vaccines can protect animal hosts, but not humans, permanently because the human immune system was created with a weakness to human coronaviruses.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1545359176695791618
B. These threads should come with CW and age restriction. Fortunately no kids read twitter; it's not their responsibility anyway.
Where are all the scientists who talk about social contract, political theory or politics? Focus everyone, SARS is higher-priority than even climate.
Where are all the scientists who talk about social contract, political theory or politics? Focus everyone, SARS is higher-priority than even climate.
B. Today's Darwin Award goes to all who are slowly learning that the 10-20 infections per decade they accepted as policy may not be survivable.
It's been three years—learn faster now. Consider positive feedback on SARS evolution, it's a dynamical problem.
It's been three years—learn faster now. Consider positive feedback on SARS evolution, it's a dynamical problem.
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1627596654307164161
B. Not all navigate twitter at ease - and yes, we/I should switch to long-form shortly.
Above reference is this stroke of genius by Meaghan Kall, one of the louder minimizers - I genuinely think they are just imaginatively/cognitively limited, not evil.
Above reference is this stroke of genius by Meaghan Kall, one of the louder minimizers - I genuinely think they are just imaginatively/cognitively limited, not evil.
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1627453021788508160
B. Fortunately we have a meme for this. But what should it really say?
Banality of indifference.
Banality of indifference.
B. The most important message today is simple—we can stop global pandemic spread of SARS any time.
@RealCheckMarker's ship analogy: the trick is to stop the ship before leaving harbor.
Once it's on the High Seas, the passengers are at risk of high waves.
@RealCheckMarker's ship analogy: the trick is to stop the ship before leaving harbor.
Once it's on the High Seas, the passengers are at risk of high waves.
https://twitter.com/RealCheckMarker/status/1630196839428358144
B. Why does integrated analysis matter—however you organize your personal ABC?
Because complexity is high enough for us to lose common ground - and shared social trust - if/as institutions fail more visibly and impactfully. One example concludes letter B:
Because complexity is high enough for us to lose common ground - and shared social trust - if/as institutions fail more visibly and impactfully. One example concludes letter B:
https://twitter.com/_ppmv/status/1632703305682939911
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