Pekka Virkki Profile picture
Mar 6, 2023 15 tweets 6 min read Read on X
1/ Today, the distinguished professor and dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University Yan Xuetong gave a lecture at the University of Helsinki.

Very interesting event, some thoughts below.

THREAD ⤵️

#China #IR #Security Image
2/ One day after publishing my own ”Thick Red Book”, the discussion was even more inspiring as there were many overlapping topics, e.g. the role of small states in ”counter-globalization” (in Finnish):

docendo.fi/sivu/tuote/jal…

(The pic is from a @RosebudBooks store). Image
3/ The first part was very academic.

Several points:

a) Individuals define national interests while group-thinking accelerates trends
b) Populism, fundamentally xenophobic, is behind ”counter-globalization”

Image
4/

c) From the Chinese perspective, Trump is right: Beijing benefits from ”globalization” more than the US
d) Thus, Deng Xiaoping’s ideals have not been fully rejected
e) As China is not dogmatically liberal, she did not carry the flag of populism (no counter-reaction).

5/

f) However, ”someone had to get rich first”. Thus, there is maybe even more ground for populist tendencies in China than in the West (a concept Yan rejects).
g) If both great powers, China and the US, have populist leaders, counter-globalization accelerates.

6/

h) One can hear a lot of implicit criticism against Xi Jinping.

This is probably a well-considered strategy.

Image
7/ I have seen this show before, with Russian intellectuals.

First, they present themselves as relatively liberal and use very academic language. Intellectually stimulating, sophisticated feeling.

Right after that, they reveal a brutally imperialist mindset. Image
8/ Thanks to @TeivoTeivainen’s provocative question about democracy as well as some discussion about Putin, the distinguished professor revealed himself: there is poverty in the West, too, so our democracy is not better than the ”Chinese democracy”. Image
9/ When it comes to Russia, Yan announced that China is just guarding her national interest: Moscow threatens Beijing because of the long border.

However, the distinguished professor ignored a crucial thing: the two countries share a very similar world view.
10/ Thus, they are likely to find each other in the future, too. Already now, China and Russia are more or less allied.

If you look for further evidence, just check this out.

npr.org/2022/02/06/107…
11/ Moreover, Yan started to rant about #Finland joining #NATO: ”emotional decision”.

Right. Image
12/ However, I am happy such events are being organized.

I would like to know where the distinguished professor will be after ten years.
13/ Some of the Russians I previously referred to have moved abroad, part of them likely feeling regrets about legitimizing imperialist discourses home and abroad.

Some have turned into a full-fledged propaganda machine.
14/ In the end, it is surprising how clear-eyed such people can be when staying within their comfort zone.

I largely share Yan’s analysis on (de/counter/anti)globalization.
15/ Let’s hope the West (I do endorse the concept) will succeed better in containing China than it did with Russia. Image

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More from @Virkki5

Jun 25
1/ @Haavisto on kertonut #Norja n demareiden pyytäneen hänen nimeään neuvostovakooja Arne Treholtin vapautusta vastineeseen vetoomukseen. Hän teki työtä pyydettyä. Sitä kaima ei tosin ole kertonut, osallistuiko esim. nimien keruuseen ja mikä oli #KGB:n (luultava) rooli taustalla. Image
2/ #KGB-miesten taloudellisten operaatioiden kannalta keskeiseksi myöhemmin muodostunut Treholt oli #Venäjä n tiedustelun prioriteetti.

Päinvastainen prioriteetti oli Liettuan vapaustaistelija Vytautas Landsbergis, jota @TuomiojaErkki haukkui päiväkirjoissaan ”pässinpääksi”. Image
3/ Norjan #KGB-asema antoi kontakteilleen yksityiskohtaiset ohjeet Landsbergiksen mustaamiseksi.

Treholtin tapaamisia KGB:n kanssa Helsingissä hoitivat G. Titov ja V. Marejev, joista jälkimmäinen oli Tuomiojan yhteyshenkilö, minkä jälkimmäinen on itsekin myöntänyt. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 25
⚡️⚡️ Toimittaja @TuulaMalin @leivoks n erinomaisessa @puheenaihefi -haastattelussa:

PUOLUEET, MINISTERIÖT, @Suojelupoliisi JA @Puolustusvoimat ON OTETTAVA #LUSTRAATIO N PIIRIIN JA VIETÄVÄ PROSESSI LOPPUUN



1/ Positiivista kehitystä ainakin #Supo ssa on…
Image
2/ …Malinin mukaan jo tapahtunutkin ja @PetteriOrpo n hallitus vaikuttaa ottavan asian vakavasti.

Kyse on avoimuudesta ja turvallisuudesta #Venäjä n naapurissa, asioiden selvittämisestä.

Prosessilla vältetään leimakirveiden heiluttelu omien vanhojen virheiden peittelemiseksi.
3/ Näistä virheistä Malin nostaa esiin mm. #Venäjän maakaupat strategisten kohteiden lähellä, jotka ovat ei vain Suomen, vaan nyt koko #Nato n ongelma.

@VanhanenMatti hallitusten aikana ei uskottu varoittajia ja #tiedustelu n portinvartijana toimi @TarjaHalonen 🇷🇺-opettaja…
Read 22 tweets
Jun 11
1/ Pääsin tänään tutustumaan aiemmin piilossa pysyneisiin #Stasi-asiakirjoihin.

Kyseessä on #Nato-projekteista tietoa itätiedustelulle toimittanut professori Lassi Päivärinta (”Larsen”), joka käytännössä sai vakoilutoiminnasta kuukausipalkkaa.

#Lustraatio #Tiedustelu #Turpo Image
2/ Vaikuttaa siltä, ettei aiheesta aiemmin kirjoittanut professori Kimmo Elo ole nähnyt aineistoa kokonaisuudessaan tai on jättänyt siitä olennaisia osia huomiotta.

Näitä ovat esim. #KGB:n voimakas sekaantuminen tapaukseen sekä 💰 merkitys toiminnassa.

journal.fi/ennenjanyt/art…
3/ ”Larsen” sai #Stasi lle tekemistään palveluksista kuukaudessa keskimäärin n. 200-500 Saksan markkaa, minkä lisäksi maksettiin suuria kulukorvauksia.

#KGB vastasi ”Larsenin” vakoilutapaamisten fasilitoinnista mm. Tallinnassa. Tästä saattaa löytyä lisätietoja 🇪🇪 arkistoissa.
Image
Image
Read 5 tweets
May 27
1/ Tämänpäiväinen @jliski n @Suojelupoliisi-artikkeli paljastaa melkoisia, hyvin tärkeitä tietoja ”tietolähde Sashasta”, joka näyttäisi olleen #FSB:n kaksoisagentti ja päässeen #supo-eläkeläisen koneelle.

Ketju 👇

#Lustraatio #Tiedustelu #Turpo

iltalehti.fi/politiikka/a/a…
2/ Alexander Ignatjev vaikuttaa kaikin puolin olevan #Venäjä n turvallisuuselinten suojeluksessa: hän on haastanut tietolähdeväitteistä venäläisen mediayhtiön oikeuteen, mutta kulkee edelleen vapaalla jalalla. Normaalia? Tuskin.

Jutun mukaan…
3/ …Ignatjev on todennäköisesti ”palvellut Vympelissä tai jossakin muussa erikoisyksikössä. Vympel on vanha KGB:n salamurhiin ja muihin erikoisoperaatioihin erikoistunut yksikkö.”
Read 23 tweets
Nov 7, 2023
1/ WHAT WOULD THE SECOND TRUMP TERM MEAN FOR #EUROPE, @NATO, AND #UKRAINE?

We do not know, but we can see the risks (and, in fact, also several opportunities).

THREAD 👇

🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸
2/ He may downgrade or, in extreme case, withdraw from #NATO.

We should not close our eyes from this. Instead, we should act.

#Europe must upgrade its military industry. Now.

The NATO members bordering Russia (🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱🇷🇴🇧🇬🇹🇷) must deepen bilateral ties with the #USA.
3/ The negotiations on the #EU membership of #Ukraine must be started & carried out efficiently to prevent a situation in which a potential policy change in the #USA drives a wedge between #Kyiv & #Brussels.

Any armistice/peace must be accepted by Ukrainians themselves.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 17, 2023
1/ The increasing #China-#Russia cooperation (or alliance?) suggests we in #NATO countries should be more aware of the #Beijing networks of influence & #espionage than we currently are (the same applies to #Iran).

Sometimes these networks are even shared by the 3.

Example: 🇫🇮👇 Image
2/ In 2014, the 🇨🇳🇷🇺 cooperation deepened.

One of its most important facilitators was Gennady Timtchenko, the alleged owner of #Redut PMC & a citizen of #Finland.

It seems the new #PMC is rapidly replacing #Wagner as a #Kremlin-loyal element in #Russia.

meduza.io/amp/en/feature…
3/ It is yet to be clarified how exactly Timtchenko received his citizenship, although it likely protected him from being sanctioned before Feb 2022.

However, we know the 🇫🇮 security police #supo failed to prevent this disastrous decision despite Western objections.
Read 8 tweets

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