1/ Today, the distinguished professor and dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University Yan Xuetong gave a lecture at the University of Helsinki.
2/ One day after publishing my own ”Thick Red Book”, the discussion was even more inspiring as there were many overlapping topics, e.g. the role of small states in ”counter-globalization” (in Finnish):
a) Individuals define national interests while group-thinking accelerates trends
b) Populism, fundamentally xenophobic, is behind ”counter-globalization”
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4/ …
c) From the Chinese perspective, Trump is right: Beijing benefits from ”globalization” more than the US
d) Thus, Deng Xiaoping’s ideals have not been fully rejected
e) As China is not dogmatically liberal, she did not carry the flag of populism (no counter-reaction).
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5/ …
f) However, ”someone had to get rich first”. Thus, there is maybe even more ground for populist tendencies in China than in the West (a concept Yan rejects).
g) If both great powers, China and the US, have populist leaders, counter-globalization accelerates.
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6/ …
h) One can hear a lot of implicit criticism against Xi Jinping.
This is probably a well-considered strategy.
…
7/ I have seen this show before, with Russian intellectuals.
First, they present themselves as relatively liberal and use very academic language. Intellectually stimulating, sophisticated feeling.
Right after that, they reveal a brutally imperialist mindset.
8/ Thanks to @TeivoTeivainen’s provocative question about democracy as well as some discussion about Putin, the distinguished professor revealed himself: there is poverty in the West, too, so our democracy is not better than the ”Chinese democracy”.
9/ When it comes to Russia, Yan announced that China is just guarding her national interest: Moscow threatens Beijing because of the long border.
However, the distinguished professor ignored a crucial thing: the two countries share a very similar world view.
10/ Thus, they are likely to find each other in the future, too. Already now, China and Russia are more or less allied.
If you look for further evidence, just check this out.
11/ Moreover, Yan started to rant about #Finland joining #NATO: ”emotional decision”.
Right.
12/ However, I am happy such events are being organized.
I would like to know where the distinguished professor will be after ten years.
13/ Some of the Russians I previously referred to have moved abroad, part of them likely feeling regrets about legitimizing imperialist discourses home and abroad.
Some have turned into a full-fledged propaganda machine.
14/ In the end, it is surprising how clear-eyed such people can be when staying within their comfort zone.
I largely share Yan’s analysis on (de/counter/anti)globalization.
15/ Let’s hope the West (I do endorse the concept) will succeed better in containing China than it did with Russia.
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1/ WHAT WOULD THE SECOND TRUMP TERM MEAN FOR #EUROPE, @NATO, AND #UKRAINE?
We do not know, but we can see the risks (and, in fact, also several opportunities).
THREAD 👇
🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸
2/ He may downgrade or, in extreme case, withdraw from #NATO.
We should not close our eyes from this. Instead, we should act.
#Europe must upgrade its military industry. Now.
The NATO members bordering Russia (🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱🇷🇴🇧🇬🇹🇷) must deepen bilateral ties with the #USA.
3/ The negotiations on the #EU membership of #Ukraine must be started & carried out efficiently to prevent a situation in which a potential policy change in the #USA drives a wedge between #Kyiv & #Brussels.
Any armistice/peace must be accepted by Ukrainians themselves.
1/ The increasing #China-#Russia cooperation (or alliance?) suggests we in #NATO countries should be more aware of the #Beijing networks of influence & #espionage than we currently are (the same applies to #Iran).
Sometimes these networks are even shared by the 3.
Example: 🇫🇮👇
2/ In 2014, the 🇨🇳🇷🇺 cooperation deepened.
One of its most important facilitators was Gennady Timtchenko, the alleged owner of #Redut PMC & a citizen of #Finland.
It seems the new #PMC is rapidly replacing #Wagner as a #Kremlin-loyal element in #Russia.
2/ Tiitinen ei omassa asiassaan ole luotettava lähde.
Hänen noustuaan #Supo n päälliköksi poliittisen vakoilun (ns. koti**ien) seuraaminen lopetettiin lähes täysin ja luotiin ennakkovaroitusjärjestelmä, ts. KGB-miehille ”vihjaistiin” ennen mahd. kiinnijäämistään.
#Lustraatio
3/ Jo Tiitisen edeltäjä Arvo Pentti (Mannerheim-ristin ritari, kyllä) oli itätiedustelun värväämä.
Tiitisen ensimatkaa Moskovaan KGB piti kuitenkin edeltäjäänsä onnistuneempana.
Aiheesta kirjoittanut ainakin professori Kimmo Rentola @TieteessaTapaht -lehdessä.
2/ In Hungary, Russia used three important tools to increase her influence, eventually enabling Orbán’s autocratization:
1) Demoralization in front of the totalitarian heritage (inadequate #lustration) 2) Corrupt networks of the ancien regime 3) Organized crime with Russian ties
3/ While Finland was never a communist dictatorship, all the elements above were present in the country after the Cold War.
2/ Minulle olisi ollut helpompaa olla kirjoittamatta kirjaani Mykkäsistä. Meillä on paljon yhteisiä tuttavia, jotka joutuvat nyt mahdollisesti ikävään asemaan ja saattavat kokea painetta.
3/ En pyydä ketään ”valitsemaan puolia”, vaan kirjoitan asioista, joita pidän poliittisesti relevantteina.
Kai Mykkänen on puolueensa linjan mukaisesti kannattanut Nato-jäsenyyttä pitkään. Samoin hän ilmeisesti puhui kovempien Venäjä-pakotteiden puolesta.
2/ Tammikuussa menehtynyt Karasev (Sutyrin) kehuu teoksessaan etenkin Vikatmaata lämpimästi ja piti tiivistä yhteyttä Suomiseen.
Oikeasti kuitenkin kovapintainen KGB-mies, jonka pyynnöstä esimerkiksi presidentti Koivisto puuttui neuvostorahanpesun viranomaistutkintaan.
3/ Ilkka Suominen ei ollut missään tapauksessa yksiselitteinen hahmo. Puhuin kanssaan viimeisen kerran viikko ennen kuolemaansa idänkaupasta ja Viktor Vladimirovin taustasta KGB:n salamurhaosastolla. IS sanoi runebergiläisittäin: jotain ehkä tietäisin, olin siellä minäkin.