Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 7 9 tweets 6 min read
Here's an earlier vioew from theis morning while the spinning up cyclone - now commencing its second pass across the Mozambique Channel started intensifying rapidly, very quickly developing a clear eye.
Here's a 24h animation over night and into this morning.
The ensemble spaghetti track and intensity plots for Freddy suggests that if the storm strengthens too fast it may turn around.
The ECMWF model PWAT forecast.
And the GFS rainfall solution. However the speed of strengthening is such that this could well be subject to significant error. But it is clear that there will be a lot of rain. In this solution you can see the storm crossing and recrossing the Mozambique channel for a second……
Having first traversed the entire Indian Ocean from Australia to to reach Madagascar, Freddy is already in the cyclonic history books as one of the longest surviving cyclonic systems on record. This forecast suggests it could last another fortnight yet. On its way back from……
The full story of #CycloneFreddy #Freddy, which began on Jan 30th can be found in the wikipedia entry on the storm. The latest forecasts suggest it could remain a cyclone through to Equinox on March 20th.…

It remains a storm to watch closely. Mozambique……

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More from @althecat

Mar 8
Ok 👌so in my opinion this account of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline - which we know took place during a NATO exercise - coming after Seymour Hersch’s expose (the pre-eminent US Intel insiders insider - which seeks to point the blame at Ukraine holds no water.
It’s a very poor fig leaf for a US 🇺🇸 administration who’s credibility around this war is rapidly disintegrating.

Europeans are being taken as fools, expected to believe whatever nonsense the global superpower across the pond throws at the wall.
Politically - even if it were sourced and evidenced (which it isn’t) - it creates more problems than it solves inside Europe in relation to this war, coming as it does before an expected spring offensive in this horrific and futile war. Arguably the dumbest, and most pointless……
Read 10 tweets
Mar 6
It appears that the TPLF negotiators Tsadkan and Reda are continuing to try to establish a narrative & support for a narrative that they will play a role in Tigray’s interim govt. My clear understanding (well sourced) is that they will not do so. SHORT THREAD.
I have just posted this short thread in response to @AnnGarrison and @iyoba4u (see quoted thread) 🧵 is in response to the report in “the reporter” posted yesterday of a nearly 400 strong TPLF and TDF dominated assembly in Tigray which came up with this unworkable proposal.
Here is the original thread from @iyoba4u about this with a link to “The Reporter” article. This could be a good place to discuss this further.

My understanding of this “meeting” in Tigray is also that the political opposition groups in Tigray are far from happy with this……
Read 9 tweets
Mar 5
#ExtremeWeather #Mozambique #Madagascar #Zimbabwe UPDATE THREAD

The Cyclone Freddy event which initiated a humanitarian emergency in South East Africa (exacerbating exisiting folldinghas now been underway for a fortnight and is ongoing. Freddy is expected to strengthen and……
The quoted tweet in the OP above covers the period February 21-27.

This thread provides an update series of 24 hour satellite animations from 27th Feb till March 5th. But the event is not yet over. The latest UNHCR emergency reponse……
So far 1.75 million people have been affected - and 163,000 were affected as of March 3rd - when this […[ report (the most recent) was issued.
Read 20 tweets
Feb 28
This tweet was posted by @EmmanuelMacron in the immediate aftermath (it finished 20/11 am) of #COP27 in Egypt. And the conference appears to be going ahead.

To speed the process of provding relief to poor countries France 🇫🇷 is now proposing “rechannelling” of unused SDRs.
During Cop27 Climate Economist Professor Stern provided an update on the level of finance which is needed to address global climate mitigation and adaptation needs - an eye watering 4 trillion + dollars a year.

I wasn’t aware till recently how much progress was being made.
A couple of weeks ago I attended a German video media event (in english) discussing World Bank Reform. The proposals for which are considered by many to be inadequate. Particularly considered against continued World Bank financing for fossil fuel infrastructure.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 27
2. Landfall in Madagascar 21 Feb
3. #Freddy exits Madagascar and makes its way into the Mozambique Channel and begins to reform. It appears to be being supported in this by an atmosphericn river which may originate in South America. Surface flows of PWAT are in opposite direction.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 26
I think @SimeonBrownMP is impressed that someone is talking about National Policy

… and hoping that will win him some exposure for his daft Ill thought out ideas - ideas which he seems disinterested in even trying to understand.
Tactically drawing attention to a powerful critique of your own policy isn’t really SOP in elections.
I wonder if @SimeonBrownMP remembers how the Don Brash effort to get elected by playing this game failed. And if anything Brashwas playing to a more fertile voting base for dog whistle posturing than NZ had today - he certainly had more profile and polling positives than Luxon.
Read 4 tweets

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