Cycle Bottom Profile picture
Mar 8 4 tweets 2 min read
We are independent thinkers $WKT 1.2x 2024 (0.6x 2027) CF, $CKA 1.8x 2024 CF (0.4x 2027) and $AEE 1x 2025 CF (0.5x 2028)

#metcoal
#expandablegraphite
#uranium
We won't mention a position unless we own it or are accummulating it (and eventually scaling down, often due to size constraints of our 20 baggers), sometimes in size, we are paid by noone to promote anything. We are asset managers who investor near cycle bottoms.
Many of our core positions are difficult to replicate, hence we are cycle holders, particularly in #uranium.

$CKA while we believe the #coal cycle is against us, the company will scale up to 5mtpa through 2027 and produce 3x it's current cap in cashflow in due course.
We love our pre-production plays moving through production to become contributors to the economies they operate in, employment, GDP contributors and positive corporate citizens. We believe we are owners of real businesses, not stock traders.

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More from @BULLReturns

Mar 9
We provided full guidance on this opportunity over this period....while many were overpaying for explorers and high AISC plays, we did the opposite and shared this widely. $AEE #uranium

The weighing machine works in the end, the voting machine has a shorter life.
Tiris resource will grow to a major deposit within 4 years due to nearology, new DFS out this month....

Haggan a monster mix of battery metals and #uranium has a very low AISC due to the monster credits.....Sweden moving to pro-mining this Month.

Total NPV per share > $4
How did you miss this opportunity?
- you didnt read the DFS or Scoping study
- you went for the over-promoted plays and overpaid
- you listened to those with marketing agendas as opposed to those open for the best value plays in the #uranium space
- you didn't relate NPV to sp
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
$AEE outperforming #uranium again today +30% in the last week.

Why?
- few have read the Haggan Scoping Study < $20 AISC
- Sweden is going pro-mining
- Tiris updated DFS pushes the NPV up massively
- #auraenergy is underexposed Vs peers
When we entered into this potential 100 bagger we read everything we could get our hands, as the price fell 65% we tripled up and tripled up again, why?

- it was by far the best value of the whole sector with 2 great #uranium projects
- we worked hard to create alignment ...
....of interests between the board and shareholders to ensure future success.

- we exposed the opportunity to those that had objectivity of thinking

- 2023 will be transformational

$AEE
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
#AuraEnergy incoming Tiris NPV upgrade > 150% & Sweden pro-mining move adds an NPV > 10x the current cap back into the mix.

Which #uranium stock has a resource over 850mlbs and is trading at less than US$140m?

$AEE
The Tiris NPV will scale up to > US$1.2bn over 5years due to nearology.

Haggan NPV will be US$2-5bn over the next 7 years with full credits included.

Cap US$140m
2025 NPV $2.0bn
2027 NPV $3.5bn
2029 NPV $5.0bn

$AEE
No high risk exploration drilling required, just execution of Tiris into production, followed by moving Haggen to the DFS project level.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
Thought of the day: Return compounding is all about timeframes in #cyclicals, 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years reinvested in 10x over 5 years with 1-2 year waiting between reinvestment = 1000x over 17-19 years. Are you formulating your compounding plan?
Our working example:

$BTU from $1.21 = 13x < 30 months

deployed into:

$IREN from $1.32 = expect 10x over 48 months

deployed into:

Unknown at this time = 8x

Total return = >1000x
Documented is previous tweets
Read 7 tweets
Feb 19
Thought of the day: The biggest mistake of 90% of investors, is to overtrade (our guidance is not to trade, but to invest, sitting being the most important element), therefore missing 65% of the returns that simple cycle bottom & reversion to the mean investing delivers.
Let's review an Asymmetric trade in play: $RIG

65c low moving to $15 high (overshot potential to $25 = > 20x

Holding time: 4-7yrs = sitting

Likely 50% plus draw downs within the holding period: 3-4

Day rates: < $200k to over > $700k
Capacity Utilization: <50% to >97%
How reversion to the mean works? $RIG
- sector cyclical low 2H 2020, 10yr plus low
- low new sector capacity
- cashflow momentum increasing due to capacity & day rate increases
- sector positive coverage increases, new players enter the stock from $4 indicating > $20 recovery
Read 10 tweets
Feb 17
The key pleasing point is the new staff additions, as this will drive 2Q volume efficiency and expansion.

The pivot back to Met is key given the higher margin opportunity.

Couple these 2 positives = > $50/t margin 2Q-3Q 2023

$AHQ
Regal has a short term positive wave to complete their selling into....

Future dilution is still on the cards.
40-50 new staff at NEM should allow for an additional shift and more than doubling in volumes pushing unit costs down 👇 to below $135/t, 3Q possible?
Read 5 tweets

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