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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 10

#China: The Dutch govt is the fourth after the US, Taiwan and Japan to introduce export controls on microchip manufacturing equipment to China. Bringing more countries together, the US persuaded the Netherlands to join the restrictions. This will be setting off a chain⤵️

reaction in the EU. It is inevitable that the Dutch decision will soon be supported by an EU policy to protect the technological advantage (intellectual property) of EU-based companies. Dutch PM Rutte has made it clear that technological leadership must remain in the West.⤵️

The Dutch are ready to introduce stricter investments in high-value technology (semiconductors, quantum computing, etc.). The multipolar Cold War will also have to do with the technological race.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 10

#Moldova_Georgia: The Russian MFA Lavrov accuses the West of double standards when it comes to the protests organized in Moldova compared to those we witnessed in Georgia. Actually, these are apples and oranges. Let's dig into the nuances:⤵️

1) The protests in Moldova involve local power dynamics and are organized by opposition forces that have been sanctioned by the US for their close ties to Russia (Shor Party); 2) Georgian protests were triggered by the “foreign agents” law & ceased after the law was cancelled;⤵️

3) The protesters in Moldova are made up of socially vulnerable and opportunistic categories, who are paid to join the protests and are bused from the regions; 4) There was no money involved in the protests in Georgia, where the driving force has been the youth of the capital;⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 10

#Georgia: The “foreign agent” law is officially dead. In the second reading, 35 of the 58 deputies present voted against it. The massive protests against the law, together with external criticism of the West, produced the "sandwich effect" which has efficiently led to the⤵️

following results: 1) This law itself is nullified and nothing similar will be proposed in the near future by part of the ruler party; 2) This positive precedent represents a “lesson learned” for both the public and the ruling party (the former can wield power if it sticks⤵️

together and the latter is not immune from accountability); 3) The public can be mobilized to pressure the govt to adequately implement the EU requirements for the EU candidacy. These protests demonstrated that the govt can be forced to compromise with the public interest;⤵️

Read 7 tweets

Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 9

#Russia: Due to the sanctions, Russia has begun to phase out the dollar and the euro to accommodate the decoupling process from the West. Consequently, the dollar-based export decreased to 48%, down from 87%, while the yuan increased from 0.5% at the beginning of 2022 to 16%⤵️

at the end of the same year. Similarly, Russia is using fewer dollars for imports: from 64% at the beginning of 2022 it dropped to 48% last Dec. In the same period, the yuan grew from 4% to 23%.⤵️

The de-dollarization of Russian foreign trade could probably have been carried out by Moscow more efficiently, if not the markets with which it is trading and where dollars have influence.

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 9

#Georgia: The ruling party has decided to avoid political and geopolitical costs and has withdrawn the “foreign agents” bill. It was an action of self-harm, which came about as a result of monopoly power and a lack of real “checks and balances”. GD will have a hard time⤵️

recovering its legitimacy. However, it is too early to say that the opposition has managed to capitalize on the street protests. The polls will show how profoundly the legitimacy of the ruling party was affected. One lesson to be learned is that the EU needs to be⤵️

more preemptive and articulate in its public positions on ALL reforms made by the govt as part of the enlargement process. Furthermore, civil society can use this victory⤵️

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Dionis Cenusa

@DionisCenusa

Mar 8

#Ukraine: The EU is discussing today the package related to the financing of the military supply to Ukraine: 1) €1 billion from the EPF is already on the table (40% is paid by Member States; 2) the joint military procurement is taking shape, but still slowly (the EU wants to⤵️

create the demand that will boost the production of European military industry); 3) The EU raises the question of the proper functioning of the military industry to replenish its military deposits, without which the EU cannot guarantee any responsibility for strategic autonomy.⤵️

According to this package, the existing ammunition in the EU will go to Ukraine, when the Member States receive the fresh ones.

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