Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Georgia: The ruling party has decided to avoid political and geopolitical costs and has withdrawn the “foreign agents” bill. It was an action of self-harm, which came about as a result of monopoly power and a lack of real “checks and balances”. GD will have a hard time⤵️

recovering its legitimacy. However, it is too early to say that the opposition has managed to capitalize on the street protests. The polls will show how profoundly the legitimacy of the ruling party was affected. One lesson to be learned is that the EU needs to be⤵️

more preemptive and articulate in its public positions on ALL reforms made by the govt as part of the enlargement process. Furthermore, civil society can use this victory⤵️

and the sandwich effect of protests and external pressure as a window of opportunity to hold the govt to account more efficiently.

An additional thing: the success of the protests is also a blow to Russia, which will try to hide or undermine the role of the protests in Georgia (for fear that they might inspire some liberal anti-Putin pockets inside Russia in the context of the anti-war diasstisfaction).

This is how the situation could have evolved if the government had pushed the law. They weren't very strategic in coming up with this law in the first place, but political survival is imperative so the law was dropped (hopefully for for). dioniscenusa.substack.com/p/explainer-8-…

As sone Georgian sources have pointed out, the bill has not been de jure withdrawn. The ruling party has spoken politically about the decision to annul the bill. This must materialize in practical and legal terms. The protests will probably continue to put an end to this story.

The law can be annulled if in second reading the majority votes against the bill. Therefore, an urgent parliamentary session must take place for this purpose. The protesters will demand this from the ruling party. Trust in the ruling party is low. Deeds count more than words.

Update: Caution is the right approach to what is happening in Georgia. The ruling party seeks to revise/sell to the public the "foreign agents" law rather than scrap it. The regime is adjusting its actions and its rhetoric frequently trying to muddle through the current crisis.