Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Mar 9 13 tweets 6 min read
Freddy remains a massive storm taking up nearly the entire Mozambique Channel - outer bands are already over the African coast.

The latest forecast predictions contain a range of possibilities & the latest ensemble mean model forecast is very bad in terms of additional flooding……
The last two days of development. 7-8 March.
And 8-9 March. Freddy is strengthening rapidly on approach to the mainland - and remains embedded within and fueled by an AR coming in from the North East.
This image measures the size of the wind and convection fields associated with the strengthening #CycloneFreddy last night.

Night has now fallen over the Mozambique channel and the satellite presentation is again very interesting.
#CycloneFreddy before sunset this evening and after.
The GFS 3hr model 16 day model simulation shows Freddy leaving, but two more systems replacing it to the north of Madagascar.
PWAT model shows a mass of PWAT moving in from the West and organising itself.
and the 500 hpa winds shows that organisation producing vortices at 5000m +
Looking at the entire South Indian Ocean view we can see in clearer detail the exit of Freddy after heading inland over Mozambique again and then back out over the Mozambique channel. Freddy's assisting AR from the NE is very obvious.

Whilst the forecast path of #Freddy in this……
This second part of the animation shows the forecast decay of #Freddy post exit and the formation of the two cyclones north of Madagascar - one of which makes landfall in Mozambique soon after formation.
Here we can see the situation at the postulated model time of the disturbances which become these two storms on 22 March & the corresponding PWAT and IWVT plots. The dominant feature is the intense high pressure system which spans the entire south Indian ocean.
The most intense period of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season (which started very quietly) occurred in the post equinox period. Fiona, Ian and Julia. We are now seeing a similar pattern now in the South East Indian Ocean - a repeat of early 2022 record Madagascar cyclone season.
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More from @althecat

Mar 10
The high intensity ensemble model forecasts for #CycloneFreddy #Freddy have always indicated the possibility of it turning and exiting before landfall.

And now the HRWF cyclone model is indicating this also. Image
However a very large cyclone sitting off the coast can still produce very large quantities of rain.

But the catastrophic rainfalls indicated yesterday 300-500mms of rain deep inland may not now eventuate. Image
The storm has experienced startling intensification over the past few hours in line with the model.

View current Diagnostic imagery


CMISS… Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
Ok 👌so in my opinion this account of the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline - which we know took place during a NATO exercise - coming after Seymour Hersch’s expose (the pre-eminent US Intel insiders insider - which seeks to point the blame at Ukraine holds no water.
It’s a very poor fig leaf for a US 🇺🇸 administration who’s credibility around this war is rapidly disintegrating.

Europeans are being taken as fools, expected to believe whatever nonsense the global superpower across the pond throws at the wall.
Politically - even if it were sourced and evidenced (which it isn’t) - it creates more problems than it solves inside Europe in relation to this war, coming as it does before an expected spring offensive in this horrific and futile war. Arguably the dumbest, and most pointless……
Read 10 tweets
Mar 7
Here's an earlier vioew from theis morning while the spinning up cyclone - now commencing its second pass across the Mozambique Channel started intensifying rapidly, very quickly developing a clear eye.
Here's a 24h animation over night and into this morning.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 6
It appears that the TPLF negotiators Tsadkan and Reda are continuing to try to establish a narrative & support for a narrative that they will play a role in Tigray’s interim govt. My clear understanding (well sourced) is that they will not do so. SHORT THREAD.
I have just posted this short thread in response to @AnnGarrison and @iyoba4u (see quoted thread) 🧵 is in response to the report in “the reporter” posted yesterday of a nearly 400 strong TPLF and TDF dominated assembly in Tigray which came up with this unworkable proposal.
Here is the original thread from @iyoba4u about this with a link to “The Reporter” article. This could be a good place to discuss this further.

My understanding of this “meeting” in Tigray is also that the political opposition groups in Tigray are far from happy with this……
Read 9 tweets
Mar 5
#ExtremeWeather #Mozambique #Madagascar #Zimbabwe UPDATE THREAD

The Cyclone Freddy event which initiated a humanitarian emergency in South East Africa (exacerbating exisiting folldinghas now been underway for a fortnight and is ongoing. Freddy is expected to strengthen and……
The quoted tweet in the OP above covers the period February 21-27.

This thread provides an update series of 24 hour satellite animations from 27th Feb till March 5th. But the event is not yet over. The latest UNHCR emergency reponse……
So far 1.75 million people have been affected - and 163,000 were affected as of March 3rd - when this […[ report (the most recent) was issued.
Read 20 tweets
Feb 28
This tweet was posted by @EmmanuelMacron in the immediate aftermath (it finished 20/11 am) of #COP27 in Egypt. And the conference appears to be going ahead.

To speed the process of provding relief to poor countries France 🇫🇷 is now proposing “rechannelling” of unused SDRs.
During Cop27 Climate Economist Professor Stern provided an update on the level of finance which is needed to address global climate mitigation and adaptation needs - an eye watering 4 trillion + dollars a year.

I wasn’t aware till recently how much progress was being made.
A couple of weeks ago I attended a German video media event (in english) discussing World Bank Reform. The proposals for which are considered by many to be inadequate. Particularly considered against continued World Bank financing for fossil fuel infrastructure.
Read 9 tweets

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