Thread by @HeliosRunner

Hello there!
grosse semaine pour moi, impossible d'être avec vous...
mais regardez ce qui suit... je vous montre la voie j'ai fait la reco ;-)
Have a good week end you all take care friends!
доброго ранку та успіхів усім моїм українським друзям!
1/n

2/ First of all the situation even w lots of difficulties, is quite "good" for Ukrainians right now despite a lots of noises, still a ton of highly motivated ppl out there and an entire country behind it's army ! so if WE, in other countries give them all they need, it'll fine.

3/ Russia is still perfectly -on point- about totally losing it's army, they are losing the equivalent of a BTG every 2 (days) and it's even worse with manpower..
#Prigozhin as i explained weeks ago is now clearly kind of a pariah w Ru regular army & his "forces" r going down.

4/ now,
1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on March 11, 2023
#RussianArmy this week tried to push their tiny advantages here & there but no major success.
they hold East #Bakhmut, & still push in the south..
no break through though.
#UkraineMap

5/ in the #Bakhmut direction, #UAarmy fight back & stopped numerous assaults in the areas of #Spirne, #Fedorivka, #Zaliznyanske, #DubovoVasylivka, #Paraskoviyivka (!!!) #Bohdanivka, Bakhmut south and #Ivanivske.

there is a major news here! #Paraskoviyivka (in the area of) which

6/ could indicate that #ZSU have pushed couple hundreds meter more in that direction and it could fit with the last report i made on the subject in the area of #Yahidne :
but we don't know the exact limit of Ukraine reach there.
also it does not mean they

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1633038002950750211

7/ in full control of any of the surroundings.
because last time we heard about #Berkhivka for example it was only to say that Ukr forces pushed back Wagner at the entry of the village but couple days later, Wagner posted some legit pics of them in the center of the village.

8/ so i'm staying very cautious and "conservative" here with limits reached because Ru are also, and for sure, encroaching the entire other part of the hill and still trying to push to #Bohdanivka meaning no real fear of being "cut" in their back. also indicating they still want

9/ to keep their hand on the "railway" line as a "limit" under their control.
but if we look at a sat map and we try to make sense about the actual FEBA line, & being a "bit" optimistic, we could be witnessing a really nice forward dyn by #Ukraine forces there :
#Paraskoviivka

10/ Also about the area.. Ru shelled #Vasyukivka, Zaliznyans'ke, #Minkivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Bakhmut, #Ozaryanivka (area i still believe), #OleksandroShultyne (direction they still try to push like effing dumb they are), #Kostyantynivka, #Mayorsk (no clear reports) & #NiuYork

11/ So basically the entire situation there for RU is pretty much totally a stall & a pure failure in terms of global operations. Ru are not even close to seize the entire city and even less the entire area. Reinforcements around Bakhmut, even if not "massive", is very effective.

12/ that being said, their main goals remains clearly the same and they are trying (if we zoom out and try to understand it in a macro perspective)
trying to push 20 clicks West & NW of #Bakhmut along main roads (LOCS) & canals, to advance to their "ultimate" goal & also try to

13/ force out (push away) Ukr forces out of the #Siversk area
but frankly as #Bakhmut battle is important it also shows how pathetic & weak is Ru global forces in the region as they are not even able to conquer one of the 20 small villages everywhere else on their "way"
...

14/ i remember few years ago, a general explaining how it was stupid to rely on very few (even if super high tech) number of shells & system because the mass will always be important. But the "corollary proposition" of having only few "dumb" mass arty systems &shells like Ru have

15/ right now shows also the tremendous limits of it's army and the utter lack of everything else they can use in the battle.
MBTs & IFVs are just simple ATGMs "catcher" right now.. & their "bench" of incoming troops are no fit to such a task even if 5 times more in numbers

16/ now as for other areas : Russian failed in their offensive actions in the areas of #Hryanykivka and #Masyutivka in Kharkiv region, and #Nevske, #Kreminna and #Bilohorivka in Luhansk region.

17/ Ru shelled 20 settlements in the global area, including #Kamyanka, #Fyholivka, Novomlyns'k, #Dvorichna, #Hryanykivka, Masyutivka, #Pishchane (area i think), Kyslivka and Krokhmal'ne in Kharkiv region, and #Novoselivske, #Stelmakhivka, #Nevske and #Kuzmyne in Luhansk region.

18/ now about the situation in #Donetsk, Ru were unsuccessful (but are still really pushing strong there!!) in the areas of #Kamyanka, #Avdiivka, #Tonenke, #Syeverne, #Vodyane, #Pervomayske, #Nevelske, #Krasnohorivka, #Maryinka and #Novomykhaylivka.

19/ so the situation is quite simple and it's about 4 to 5 click in each direction (north and West) Ru wants to totally surround the city of #Avdiivka & contrary to Bakhmut it holds a real signification for Ukrainians, as the city is a real strong symbol of Ukrainian resistance

20/ here the situation is also quite difficult for Ukrainians defenders but main roads are still under their control, and there is a lots of defensive lines able to be use in order to defend from Ru attacks.
hopefully again, Ru have not enough "mass" or quality to make huge gain

21/ and that's basically about it for this morning SITREP.
just gonna paste here Gen staff report :

22/ Hayday Luhansk gov last reports :

23/ soon again ?? wait couple months! (cross fingers!) it'll come!
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Згинуть наші вороженьки, як роса на сонці!
З Днем Державного Гімну України!
Переможемо!🇺🇦

24/ ok i can go on and on... but i got to go!
enjoy your day you all & don't forget to say to the ones you love that they are important to you! you never know... life is precious & fragile.
So long my friends!