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Mar 12 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Russia_Sanctions: The US has warned Georgia to avoid becoming involved in sanctions circumvention by Russia. Trade data shows Georgian export to Russia increased by more than 6% in 2022, this also includes re-export of passenger cars. Russian citizens opened 60,000 accounts⤵️
in Georgian banks. The total amount of remittances transferred from Russia to Georgia constituted $2.1 billion during 2022 (5-fold increase). Other indicators (migration, FDI, etc.) remained below the 2020-21 periods.
interpressnews.ge/en/article/124…
transparency.ge/en/post/georgi…

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 12
#Moldova: Anti-government protests organized by the US-sanctioned Shor Party will take place today. Law enforcement agencies stated that they have details about the stabilization intention, with the participation of Russian services. The presidential office has expressed⤵️
confidence that the situation is under control. The US embassy is the only one that warned its citizens to be vigilant. The negative expectations from these protests (that are repetitive and take place since 2021) are rather moderate because the authorities have been taking
preventive actions (ex: ban entry into the country at the airport, search suspects, identify money from unknown sources, etc.) Local voices claim that the ruling party is using the security alarm surrounding the protests organized by the Shor Party as a reminder of the⤵️
Read 13 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 11
#Russia: The idea that Russia would have lost its “soft power” in the post-Soviet space is actively circulating. It can be misleading. The reality seems different however. What we can say at this point is that Russia's soft power is “in crisis”.⤵️
This claim is supported by empirical: 1) Armenia: The Russian language is widely used, especially after the influx of Russian citizens fleeing sanctions and mobilization. If Russian is spoken, then Russian misinformation is there too;⤵️
2) Moldova: The pro-Russian forces are in parliament and their public support is on the same level as the ruling pro-EU party. Russian disinformation penetrates Russian-speaking communities and also the Romanian majority.⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 11
#China: After going nowhere with the 12-point Ukraine-Russia peace deal (supported by Kazakhstan, Hungary, Belarus and Russia), China has scored a point in its favor by heating up diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This is considered an achievement of⤵️
Chinese diplomacy in the Middle East. Beijing is filling the geopolitical vacuum in the region, looking primarily at pairing and maximizing its own economic benefits (realpolitik) and excluding any form of normativism.⤵️
With Russia being pushed back by the Ukrainian defense, the West is fostering alliances with the liberal West to challenge Russia's geopolitical supremacy in the post-Soviet space and deter Chinese non-market technology policies.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 11
#China: The US and the EU agreed to coordinate certain policies directed at China: 1) The bilateral Trade and Technology Council will share information on non-trade policies to act in unison through the multilateral platforms;⤵️
2) Both sides will take more aggressive measures to enforce sanctions and export controls to deter circumvention (action covering all third countries, not just China);⤵️
3) Diversify supply chains (critical minerals) and prevent the leakage of sensitive emerging technologies, through incoming and outgoing investment screening, export control, etc., to systemic rivals in a changing geostrategic environment.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 11
#Moldova: Certain aspects are overlooked by the US intelligence assessment: 1) Actually, parliamentary opposition overlaps with Russia's in Moldova - namely, the political destabilization favors both; 2) Such protests have been organized by the same opposition since 2021, but⤵️
are now perceived as a threat to national security because protests can derail into violence; 3) At the same time, the evidence shows that normally up to 5,000 are protesting (the opposition claims numbers that are 10 times bigger), but they are carried out by the socially⤵️
vulnerable or opportunistic categories, making them both risk takers and libialities; 4) The govt cannot be simply overthrown. The ruling party controls the parliament, the govt and the president is from the political field. The likelihood that the protests, as⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 10
#China: The Dutch govt is the fourth after the US, Taiwan and Japan to introduce export controls on microchip manufacturing equipment to China. Bringing more countries together, the US persuaded the Netherlands to join the restrictions. This will be setting off a chain⤵️
reaction in the EU. It is inevitable that the Dutch decision will soon be supported by an EU policy to protect the technological advantage (intellectual property) of EU-based companies. Dutch PM Rutte has made it clear that technological leadership must remain in the West.⤵️
The Dutch are ready to introduce stricter investments in high-value technology (semiconductors, quantum computing, etc.). The multipolar Cold War will also have to do with the technological race.
Read 4 tweets

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