The massive rise in Bond Volatility which can be tracked by the MOVE index is driving VAR (Value at Risk) related Asset Sales which is driving the sell down across various Asset classes.
Gold is quite a illiquid asset and hence a bit of buying here (most obvious asset that benefits), can send it up even in such an environment. GOLD is a great asset to reduce the overall Volatility in your portfolio.
Copper ….
Aluminium
Would expect Decent EM ETF related selling tomorrow. It’s fallen far more sharply than the US markets.
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People are asking WHY DID #INR to fall so sharply on FRIDAY to 83.64/USD?
A quick 🧵 explaining why …#RBI
Who BENEFITS most when INR Depreciates?
✅It’s Financial Year end and @RBI has PROFIT targets & DIVIDEND targets of 120,000 Crores to pay Govt of India
✅ when INR Depreciates (#USDINR Rises), @RBI makes profits since it’s ASSETS are USD BONDS/GOLD & it’s LIABILITIES is INR
✅ When #INR depreciates (#USDINR rises), EXPORTS become competitive and IMPORTS become cheaper
✅ When #INR Depreciates, The BIGGEST component of GST (IGST of GST) grows faster since IGST is levied on IMPORTS, Basic & Intermediate Raw Materials, Inventory
#NRI #Remittances will not only #COLLAPSE but they could reverse
A quick thread with implications for the #INR
#NRI #Remittances will not only collapse but they could reverse as outflows unless the DEPOSIT Rates offered by Indian Banks to NRIs are at-least 6-7% $ Rates
Today the US Rates are 1) 4.7% on the US 10yr 2) Investment Grade US bonds offer $6.5% 3) MBS Securities offer $7% at-least 4) US High Yield Bonds are offering $8-9% pa
Compared to that FCNR deposits are at just 5.5-5.8%
FIRST: Every litre of Ethanol, Govt India will lose Rs15-20 in Tax Collections since:
👉Cost of Procuring PETROL is Rs45/lt
👉Cost of Procurement of ETHANOL is Rs65/Lt