Abraar Karan Profile picture
Mar 16 12 tweets 8 min read
1/ Phenomenal lecture today from Dr. Stephen Luby on his team's work discovering the mechanisms of #NipahVirus transmission in Bangladesh over nearly the past two decades

The story starts with an outbreak of fatal encephalitis among 11 patients (Dec 2004)
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17326940/
2/ They asked the families of deceased cases about many exposures; & similarly asked the same to neighborhood controls

The evidence here pointed to consumption of raw date palm sap (odds ratio of 7.9)

Bats were suspected to drink from/near the clay pots of sap in the trees
3/ They used infrared cameras to help add to the evidence base, showing Pteropus bat behaviors at night related to consumption of the date palm sap where they presumably shed live virus. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21207105/
4/ They investigated further outbreaks in Bangladesh in subsequent years where the only significant risk factor for infection was consumption of raw date palm sap consumption; they further utilized infrared cameras to document bat contact with the sap. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21923274/
5/ They designed an intervention-- a skirt that could cover the date palm collection pots-- and tested it in a randomized controlled trial which showed that these could effectively prevent bat-sap contact. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22905160/
6/ And worked together with the government of Bangladesh to help create commercials and other forms of public health communications to help effect behavior change around safe-sap consumption.

bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
7/ They tested their behavior-change intervention in a controlled trial and found that messaging around only consuming safe sap likely significantly reduced consumption (self reported) of raw sap.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28905152/
8/ Dr. Luby discusses further the pandemic potential of Nipah Virus, which can be transmitted person-person and has a very high infection fatality rate; with zoonotic spillover happening in multiple countries in South/SE Asia.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
9/ In other studies, they explored Nipah virus RNA detection at bat roosts. One of the challenges is identifying where/when outbreaks may occur.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35731130/
10/ In other studies, they have found Nipah virus antibodies in cattle, dogs, and cats suggesting further spillover into other species, although unclear to what extent these will serve as important reservoirs for future outbreaks.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36692447/
11/ Inspiring to hear about some of the work of a true giant in global health and infectious disease epi. The Luby Lab was also part of the Bangladesh masks RCT for #Covid19.

Lucky to be working in the Luby lab for my post-doc @stanford @StanfordCIGH @stanfordwoods
@Stanford_ID

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Abraar Karan

Abraar Karan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AbraarKaran

Mar 1
If we were hit with another covid-like pandemic soon, are we ready? As USG & (likely soon) WHO end the "emergency" phase of #Covid19, we need to avoid panic-neglect cycles. I think this is the bigger emergency. @bmj_latest

bmj.com/content/380/bm…
2/ As much as this is a matter of public health, it is also (perhaps more) a matter of politics. What will a Republican-led House focus on/fund for pandemic preparedness? And, w/ elections next year, to what extent will prevention efforts get pushed further down priority list?
3/ Furthermore, while we have excellent vaccines, more attention on high-quality masks, & some movement toward cleaner air, each of these areas is plagued by serious challenges in implementation.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 25
1/ It's difficult to see the pictures of severe #monkeypox infection in patients with uncontrolled HIV/AIDS in this Lancet case series. These patients are at high risk of death. These cases remind me of @NickKristof work on deaths of despair.

thelancet.com/action/showPdf…
2/ While these aren't the diseases that the term usually describes, the same social and economic despair underlies these infections as well. I have followed these cases in LA County as part of surveillance efforts for the past 6 months. Patients who were homeless, who had...
3/ significant mental health issues; substance abuse; relied on transactional sex for survival; and had other co-morbid sexually transmitted infections. These were patients who, because of these challenges, also were not consistently taking antiretroviral treatment for their HIV.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 4
This. In these mask RCTs, what’s rarely accounted for & hard to determine is when transmission happened. If it happens mostly when masks are off & that is happening way more than you account for in your analysis, you likely have significant misclassification of exposure bias.
2/ This doesn’t mean masks don’t work. What it might mean is that masks aren’t worn at all times they need to be in order for them to work. So pragmatically an intervention may need to increase compliance at specific high risk times when they are being removed.
3/ And when I use the word "work" here, it is really not a binary. The trial would be set up with an estimated effect size of the intervention. You are looking to detect that effect. That estimate is based on people complying with the intervention. But compliance is complex here
Read 9 tweets
Feb 3
1/ "We identified high loads of #monkeypox virus DNA by qPCR in 35 (85%) of 41 saliva samples. Infectious monkeypox virus was recovered from 22 (67%) of 33 saliva samples positive for monkeypox virus DNA."

Interesting study but transmission more complex

thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…
2/ Detection of viral DNA in various samples is not equal to transmission. We often say that culturable virus is a proxy for transmission potential, but even this doesn't mean transmission routes from those specimens are inherently effective ones.
3/ We saw this epidemiologically play out during the current #monkeypox outbreak. We did not see major spillover outside of MSM sexual networks. If there was substantial droplet transmission, transmission patterns would likely have looked different than they did.
Read 7 tweets
Jan 20
1/ Also, the move recently has been away from screening asymptomatic patients who are being admitted to the hospital. This will reduce burden on hospital/labs to process tons of samples, many which will be negative. It will miss some cases who are incubating + infectious
2/ I appreciate costs/benefits of this. On one hand, missed cases could transmit to staff who may be wearing surgical masks (still some protection but less than N95). For shared rooms, more concerning (see our paper) so would definitely screen prior

academic.oup.com/cid/article/74…
3/ In times of low community incidence, screening all asymptomatic may put strain on lab capacity for small benefit. If symptomatic or in shared rooms, would definitely advocate for testing in this scenario though as outlined above. Benefit of hospital is you can identify quickly
Read 4 tweets
Jan 20
1/ I was asked yesterday by @mehdirhasan about the ‘with v for’ argument on #covid19 hospitalizations/deaths which has been used by some to argue that hospitals are over-counting @MSNBC
2/ One of the arguments is that we have 'over-screened' because many infections aren't leading to 2020-21 pneumonia syndromes. Or, that screening can/does sometimes pick up persistent positive on rtPCR representing old infections
3/ This is true to an extent. But the other side of this is that screening during times where there is high level of community spread still helps identify cases who would likely benefit from antivirals. And, to reduce spread to other hospitalized patients and staff.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(