Thread by @R__Politik

The @TheStudyofWar reported yesterday on a recent discussion in Russian media concerning an alleged "leak" about a Russian Security Council meeting. A thread 🧵 understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

According to the leak, Nikolai Patrushev informed #Putin of the reasons for the security services to "neutralize" the #Wagner Group.

The ISW states that it has not observed any information suggesting these discussions took place, nor has it captured any speculation in the Russian information space about them.

The report concludes that #Prigozhin likely "fabricated the alleged plot to advance several information operations on behalf of Wagner and improve his own reputation.”

ISW believes this story portrays Patrushev and possibly the Russian Security Council as enemies of the Wagner Group, believing that Patrushev is a target for Prigozhin.

It is difficult to understand how observers can base their analyses on such questionable grounds.

📌 Information about the alleged Security Council meeting appeared in a Telegram post by General SVR, linked to Valery Solovey, who is known for his often fabled stories. It is surprising that the reputable @TheStudyofWar overlooked this detail. t.me/generalsvr/1464

📌For those familiar with Security Council proceedings, it is highly unlikely that Patrushev would report on the threats posed by #Wagner during an official meeting, particularly over video conference.

While the #FSB might discreetly mention risks associated with Prigozhin in top-secret reports to #Putin, no one would openly suggest neutralizing Wagner, as it is part of Putin's personal agenda and responsibility.

It is true that the FSB has advocated preventing Wagner from recruiting prisoners, as it undermines their efforts to jail criminals and maintain control. Additionally, Valery Gerasimov has requested Putin's assistance in securing the military chain of command and preventing…

…Wagner's constant attacks. However, Putin has not given Patrushev the authority to discuss the political risks posed by Wagner, and this is simply impossible to imagine.

📌Prigozhin has no incentive to fabricate plots against himself, as it would alienate the senior Russian officials with whom he is trying to build relationships. Attacking Patrushev would be a reckless move for Prigozhin, and his comments regarding the rumors support this.

📌There is no indication that Patrushev opposes Wagner, and it is not within his purview to do so. In fact, both share hawkish views with significant ideological similarities and favor escalating the conflict rather than prolonging it.

📌Currently, Prigozhin finds himself in a vulnerable position, facing significant losses among his ranks, difficulties recruiting new members, and limited access to the presidential administration and Putin.

Furthermore, he faces an uncertain future in the ongoing conflict. It would be unwise for him to open a new front of confrontation with Putin's inner circle at this time.