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Mar 18 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
#NATO_Enlargement: The crisis surrounding Sweden's entry into NATO is deliberately provoked by Turkey (and now apparently exploited by Hungary as well), which demands in return the extradition of 120 Kurds. Erdogan argued that, unlike in Sweden, Turkish legal proceedings will⤵️
be brought forward so that Finland is finalized before the Turkish elections in mid-May. Ankara steers the crisis around Sweden’s security in a highly uncertain geopolitical context to extort concessions from Stockholm. Erdogan is decoupling Finland from Sweden by saying that⤵️
Turkey is promoting an "open policy" regarding NATO enlargement. This interpretation of "open politics" is at odds with Sweden's liberal policies towards asylum seekers who found refuge while fleeing persecution in Ankara (where they qualify as terrorists). Extraditing⤵️
people from Sweden to Turkey knowing that they are likely to be imprisoned and mistreated will have a high political cost for any political leader in Sweden. That’s the reading why such a Turkish request is unacceptable for Sweden.⤵️
It is more likely to find a solution after the Turkish general elections, where at least 4 opposition parties (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) united forever to compete against Erdogan. If Erdogan loses the election, Sweden has a better chance of overcoming Turkey's veto.
elconfidencial.com/mundo/2023-03-… @elconfidencial

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 19
#Critical_Goods: The grain deal was renewed, without much resistance from Russia. Turkey announced that both sides agreed to extend. Moscow claims that it is only for 60 days, while Ukraine speaks of 120 days. ⤵️
In the previous iteration, behind-the-scenes diplomacy was carried out to make adjustments to the sanctions regime in order to avoid bottlenecks for financial transfers or insurance related to the Russian export of agri-food and fertilizers.⤵️
It is very likely that Russia has exhausted its diplomatic and technical resources to prevent the supply of grain from Ukraine to the world.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 19
#Russia: Putin made unannounced visits to Crimea and Mariupol. The ICC court order on Putin's name cannot be the reason, because such visits by Putin require meticulous preparation for security reasons. Why then? Some reflections:⤵️
1) It is more likely that the reasons are linked to a clear intention to target the national public and the international positioning; 2) The Kremlin is not advancing as it would like on the battlefield while registering massive human losses. While in Mariupol,⤵️
Putin tries to signal to the audience that it is “worth” fighting in Ukraine to fuel pro-war state propaganda and growing expectations about new military victories; 3) Stepping on the soil of Crimea and Mariupol is also a political statement intended to reiterate that⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 19
#WesternBalkans: North Macedonia hosted trilateral Serbia-Kosovo-EU discussions, within the framework of the EU-facilitated Dialogue. Serbia and Kosovo committed to implement various aspects of the standardization plan. The main advance is the approval of Kosovo to allow⤵️
an “appropriate level of self-management” (= autonomy) of the regions populated by the Serb community. The first evaluation of the fulfillment of the conditions could be the second summit of the European Political Community, which will take place in Moldova.⤵️
The Kosovar delegation is supposed to participate in the event. The EU promised both Serbia and Kosovo that under the normalization process they will both advance on their path to the EU, without explicitly mentioning that Kosovo will gain EU candidate status.⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 18
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Historical revisionism, rooted in alleged Soviet decisions, is not invoked solely by Putin and his aggressive war against Ukraine. Azeri leader Aliyev is indirectly questioning the territorial integrity of Armenia. Aliyev argued⤵️
that Syunik from Armenia would have belonged to Azerbaijan in the past (West Zangezur). This echoes future territorial disputes beyond the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The EU has lately been taking the lead from Azerbaijan because of the country's geostrategic⤵️
position in the field of energy. The EU Delegation in Baku is not saying to much about the opposition’s or civil society’s rights in Azerbaijan, which are kept in the shadow in exchange for energy strategic dialogue.⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 17
#Risk_Reduction: The unintended consequences of sanctions on Russia can lead to environmental catastrophes. This is related to the old fleet of ships used to export the oil abroad that are poorly insured. It is reported that the Finnish authorities started organizing drills⤵️
for emergency responses in case of accidental oil spill or other types of incidents (collision, etc.) involving Russian vessels operating in the Baltic Sea. Similar concern should keep other riparian countries in whose nearby waters Russian oil tankers sail on alert.⤵️ Image
With declining technical capabilities, the Russian authorities cannot guarantee the safety diligence of the cargoes they send by sea, air or land. The environmental impacts of sanctions need to be seriously considered within regional risk assessments.⤵️
Read 6 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 17
#China_Russia: There is a misconception that China is using a weakened Russia to extract more material opportunities from it. In my opinion, Putin is also benefiting from a strengthened alliance with Xi (who is going to visit Putin after another autocrat Lukashenko):⤵️
1) China watches and learns from the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, sparked by Putin's war against Ukraine; 2) Russia is exposing the West's toolbox of measures (sanctions) that could be used should China act militarily to gain control of Taiwan.⤵️
Some of the measures are already implemented on the basis of technological competition (for example, export control). Both parties - Russia/Putin and China/Xi - are consciously playing a geopolitical game, in which their rivals are in the West.⤵️
Read 4 tweets

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