Thread by @virtaava

The ICC Indictment of Putin: Consequences for Russia and the World
#ICC #Putin #WarCrimes #GlobalPolitics #InternationalRelations #Europe #Russia #NATO #UnitedNations #G20 #HumanRights

The recent International Criminal Court (ICC) indictment of Vladimir Putin on charges of war crimes may seem like a symbolic victory, but its impact goes far beyond symbolism. 1/16

While it is unlikely that Putin will ever stand trial in The Hague, the indictment will have significant consequences for Russia's relationship with the rest of the world and for politics within Russia itself. 2/16

In short, the ICC's announcement means that there is no future with Putin. 3/16

Legally, each of the 123 state parties of the Rome Statute, including all members of the European Union, most African states, all Latin and South American states except Cuba and Nicaragua, and even Tajikistan, are required to arrest Putin if he ever sets foot on their… 4/16

…territory. Politically, few heads of state from ICC-respecting countries will want to be seen shaking hands with the only sitting president, other than Sudan's Omar Al Bashir, to be indicted by the Hague. 5/16

With summit-level interactions effectively frozen, the rest of Russia's relationships with these countries will suffer an inevitable chill. 6/16

Democratic states, in particular, where leaders are more sensitive to public opinion and accusations of consorting with a wanted war criminal, will be affected. 7/16

For example, leaders of Austria, France, Germany, and Hungary can no longer even talk to Putin, and they will not be able to return to the status quo ante for as long as he reigns. 8/16

In Europe, this realization will have an immediate impact on the approach to the war, as there is no prospect of doing business with Putin. 9/16

The ICC's decision will also impact those parts of the Russian elite who have allowed themselves to believe in at least a partial post-war reconciliation with the West. 10/16

Putin has maintained a degree of ambiguity about how the war might end and what might come next, but his new status as an indicted war criminal means there is no longer anything for which to wait. 11/16

For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has previously received giveaways from Putin, can no longer thrive on this relationship.

Putin, of course, will not sit idly by. 12/16

He will work to discredit the ICC, portraying the court as a puppet of a hypocritical West. But it will be an uphill battle, given that many of those countries that have been unwilling to participate in the effort to isolate Russia are also signatories of the Rome Statute. 13/16

Leaders such as Chinese President Xi Jinping and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who continue to see Putin, will fall into disrepute and lose international standing.

Russia's global ambitions will be severely hampered until Putin is gone. 14/16

The ICC indictment shows that he is a dead ender, and either Russian leaders may finally hesitate to engage in Putin's crimes against humanity. Personal sanctions have not been enough, but the indictment against Putin has provided a new level of accountability. 15/16

If the US wants to demonstrate its adherence to restoring a rules-based world order, it should ratify the Rome Statute and put the final nail in the coffin of Putin's global ambitions. 16/16

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