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Mar 19 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
#Critical_Goods: The grain deal was renewed, without much resistance from Russia. Turkey announced that both sides agreed to extend. Moscow claims that it is only for 60 days, while Ukraine speaks of 120 days. ⤵️
In the previous iteration, behind-the-scenes diplomacy was carried out to make adjustments to the sanctions regime in order to avoid bottlenecks for financial transfers or insurance related to the Russian export of agri-food and fertilizers.⤵️
It is very likely that Russia has exhausted its diplomatic and technical resources to prevent the supply of grain from Ukraine to the world.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#Moldova_Georgia: According to media reports, the Estonian and Romanian MFAs have mentioned during today's meeting in Brussels that the EU should apply sanctions to the oligarchs of Moldova and Georgia because they seek to destabilize the two countries. The proposed sanctions⤵️
are envisioned as part of the Russia sanctions package. The protests that took place in Georgia and that occur regularly in Moldova have very little in common. The sanction to the oligarchs of these two countries will have a symbolic connotation. The fugitive businessman⤵️
behind the Moldova protests (Ilan Shor) or Georgian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili is highly unlikely to stop meddling in politics, quite the contrary. Tomorrow will publish an analytical article on the nature and differences of the protests in Moldova & Georgia. Stay tuned!
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#China_Russia: Xi's trip to Russia to meet Putin reveals many interesting aspects. Starting a longer thread on this (geo)political event: 1) Xi's choice to visit Putin (who is wanted by the ICC) as his first destination after being re-elected for a third term. ⤵️
Xi doesn't care about reputational costs because they don’t exist for him in China or the Global South; 2) Putin has already welcomed Xi's 12-point peace agreement between Ukraine (victim) and Russia (aggressor), and agreed to discuss the details. The respective proposal ⤵️
favors Russia not a long-lasting peace for Ukraine, including the de-occupation of its territories off Russian military forces; 3) Almost immediately upon arrival, Xi endorsed Putin for re-election during the 2024 presidential election.⤵️
Read 8 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#Russia_Sanctions: Moscow has just announced that it will abandon its participation (compliance) in the grain agreement on May 18 if the following conditions are not met: 1) reconnect Rosselhozbank to Swift; 2) resumption of agrotech exports to Russia;⤵️
3) remove restrictions on insurance and access to ports; 4) resumption of ammonia supply by pipeline from Tolyati to Odesa; and 5) unfreezing of all assets of Russian companies that produce or transport agri-food.⤵️
This ultimatum will most likely be ignored, raising the level of uncertainty about the Ukrainian grain supply. Russia again seeks to involve the UN to advocate for a solution.
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#Russia: To escape sanctions, Russians moved abroad or away from sanctionable jurisdictions (such as EU member states). Against this background, Russian citizens opened 1,300 new companies in Turkey (670% increase) in 2022.⤵️
This is not close to the number of registered companies in Georgia, which rose to 15,000 in 2022 (16-fold increase from 2021 ). Similar trends are observed in Armenia and other third countries close to Russia considered “friendly”.
transparency.ge/en/post/georgi…
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 20
#Russia: A ruble payment mechanism for the import of agri-food products from Russia (mainly wheat) is being developed. De-dollarization and protection against the effects of Western sanctions seem to be the main objectives. The proposed mechanism will be somewhat similar⤵️
(but operationally different) to last year's gas payment scheme, when the buyer had to open two bank accounts and make payment in euros or dollars (depending on the contract), after which the amount was changed to rubles. However, there are several obstacles to the grain ruble⤵️
payment mechanism: 1) Importing countries must use rubles as a trade currency to purchase Russian grain. But there is no clearly identified Russian financial institution that ensures the liquidity of the rubles; 2) On the other hand, the Russian govt is⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Mar 19
#Russia: Putin made unannounced visits to Crimea and Mariupol. The ICC court order on Putin's name cannot be the reason, because such visits by Putin require meticulous preparation for security reasons. Why then? Some reflections:⤵️
1) It is more likely that the reasons are linked to a clear intention to target the national public and the international positioning; 2) The Kremlin is not advancing as it would like on the battlefield while registering massive human losses. While in Mariupol,⤵️
Putin tries to signal to the audience that it is “worth” fighting in Ukraine to fuel pro-war state propaganda and growing expectations about new military victories; 3) Stepping on the soil of Crimea and Mariupol is also a political statement intended to reiterate that⤵️
Read 6 tweets

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