Anthony Bardaro Profile picture
Mar 20 7 tweets 5 min read
1/7

It's worth adding to these $sivb snippets from @matt_levine and @benthompson – particularly Stratechery's "The End of Silicon Valley (Bank)", which was more nuanced than it sounds:

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

stratechery.com/2023/the-death…

🧵👇
/2

...RE The End of Silicon Valley 👇

🅰️ I-95 Belt:
One thing that sank Greater Boston's thriving minicomputer/hardware/tech ecosystem was lack of (local) reinvestment – winners cashed-out vs SV VCs/founders continually reinvest time and money #flywheel

vox.com/2014/12/9/1163… Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) PDP-7 minicomputer, intr
/3

...The End of Silicon Valley (cont'd)👇

🅱️ SVB Bank Run:
VCs ran-the-gamut fm posterboys to paperboys to cheerleaders to D-linemen – that the outsized impact of a few snowballed to the many isn't signal of SV's downfall as much as classic panic

$sivb
/4

…the confluence of 🅰️+🅱️ is that Silicon Valley's rebound will determine its future trajectory – seems obvious, but its fate is not yet written:

SV's rise outta this travashamockery can be virtuous or vicious cycle of collective action – a lot like the $sivb snowball itself
/5

...too many of y'all are treating Silicon Valley's fate as some deterministic thing – like you've travelled through the one-and-only wormhole to SV's one-and-only fate

...but this future is probabilistic – again, "the outsized impact of a few [can snowball] to the many"
/6

...Silicon Valley has gotten big, mature, corporate – far more competitive zero sum impulse than last cycle

...but there's still plenty of capital there; question is whether or not last cycle's winners will cash-out like the 95-belt or reinvest like their predecessors
🏁/7

...and there's no shortage of capital intensive opportunity that falls into the province of Silicon Valley venture rn – e.g.:



medium.com/adventures-in-…

medium.com/adventures-in-…

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More from @AnthPB

Jun 23, 2022
/1

"The historical linkage between corporate tax rates and investment growth is non-existent [almost zero, but the correlation] between [interest] rates and investment actually has the wrong sign [they're positively correlated]"

#capex #macro #fiscalpolicy Image
/2

"when profits are growing, so does investment [which] also shows a stronger connection with growth expectations – when CEOs expect stronger growth they also are planning higher levels of capex growth"

Image
Read 4 tweets
May 31, 2022
/1

...pursuant to prior myths (), here's another misunderstanding debunked – most recently by the Fed itself (2021):

"the money multiplier...is anchored in an obsolete explanation of how the Fed operates and influences banks"

research.stlouisfed.org/publications/p… ImageImageImageImage
/2

...money multiplier obsoletion TLDR:

· (fractional) reserve rates were a thing until GFC 2008, and obsoletion redoubled during COVID 2020 when reserve requirements were suspended/lowered to zero

· since reserves are now abundant, POMOs and SOMAs can't influence FFR anymore
/3

...money multiplier myths (cont'd):

· in the Fed's modern "ample-reserves regime... IORB serves as a reservation rate, and affects market interest rates [via arb]...influences banks' decisionmaking about setting deposit and loan rates...lending and investment"

#ioer #iorr
Read 5 tweets
May 10, 2022
@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein 0/7

What are the chances that capital markets distortions are not passive's fault, but rather misattributed/coincidental ('correlation not causation')...?

To wit, some hypothetical questions – the devil's advocacy null hypothesis you've asked for...

@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein /1

Weren't there a lot of reasons for this empirical increase in valuation multiples, e.g.:

• macro (demographics/disinflation/negative real rates)

• technical (TINA/access)

• sector mix-shift (tech)

• ~idiosyncratic ()
@fed_speak @cullenroche @profplum99 @EconomPic @MstarETFUS @ritholtz @choffstein /2.i

Why isn't increasing equity market implied correlation/comovement (and hence kurtosis) more attributable to rising financialization than specific passive/active share – i.e. stock market is increasingly a macro proxy instead of a collection of idiosyncratic stocks...?
Read 21 tweets
Mar 27, 2022
... Twitter safe spaces are Twitter Communities and Twitter Spaces is Twitter talk and Twitter's edit button is Twitter's Delete Tweet and Twitter's Vine was Periscope but is now TikTok – you're taking notes, right?!

(... I kid because I love you 🐦)

$twtr
... update:

Not exactly, but it's a start 🤷‍♂️

Image
1/11

... some thoughts on "decentralized Twitter" – using Sam Bankman-Fried's thread as a foundation 👇

$twtr
Read 21 tweets
Jan 5, 2022
/1

A thread on credit creation, money supply, and how the printer does (and doesn't) go brrrr 🧵🖨💸👇

First, banks don’t lend reserves – banks make a loan first, then they find reserves second (if necessary)...

#monetarypolicy #FederalReserve #Fed
/2

If a bank extends a new loan, it creates a loan asset and a deposit liability on their balance sheet ⚖️:

loan deposit
📄 💵
asset liability

/3

The bank only needs reserves against that loan in case the borrower wants to move his deposit to another bank:

e.g. A borrower from Bank ABC is a construction co who needs to buy materials from a supplier whose checking account is at Bank XYZ...

👷‍♂️↔️💁‍♀️
💸↔️🪵
Read 20 tweets

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