It's worth adding to these $sivb snippets from @matt_levine and @benthompson – particularly Stratechery's "The End of Silicon Valley (Bank)", which was more nuanced than it sounds:
🅰️ I-95 Belt:
One thing that sank Greater Boston's thriving minicomputer/hardware/tech ecosystem was lack of (local) reinvestment – winners cashed-out vs SV VCs/founders continually reinvest time and money #flywheel
🅱️ SVB Bank Run:
VCs ran-the-gamut fm posterboys to paperboys to cheerleaders to D-linemen – that the outsized impact of a few snowballed to the many isn't signal of SV's downfall as much as classic panic
…the confluence of 🅰️+🅱️ is that Silicon Valley's rebound will determine its future trajectory – seems obvious, but its fate is not yet written:
SV's rise outta this travashamockery can be virtuous or vicious cycle of collective action – a lot like the $sivb snowball itself
/5
...too many of y'all are treating Silicon Valley's fate as some deterministic thing – like you've travelled through the one-and-only wormhole to SV's one-and-only fate
...but this future is probabilistic – again, "the outsized impact of a few [can snowball] to the many"
/6
...Silicon Valley has gotten big, mature, corporate – far more competitive zero sum impulse than last cycle
...but there's still plenty of capital there; question is whether or not last cycle's winners will cash-out like the 95-belt or reinvest like their predecessors
🏁/7
...and there's no shortage of capital intensive opportunity that falls into the province of Silicon Valley venture rn – e.g.:
"The historical linkage between corporate tax rates and investment growth is non-existent [almost zero, but the correlation] between [interest] rates and investment actually has the wrong sign [they're positively correlated]"
"when profits are growing, so does investment [which] also shows a stronger connection with growth expectations – when CEOs expect stronger growth they also are planning higher levels of capex growth"
· (fractional) reserve rates were a thing until GFC 2008, and obsoletion redoubled during COVID 2020 when reserve requirements were suspended/lowered to zero
· since reserves are now abundant, POMOs and SOMAs can't influence FFR anymore
/3
...money multiplier myths (cont'd):
· in the Fed's modern "ample-reserves regime... IORB serves as a reservation rate, and affects market interest rates [via arb]...influences banks' decisionmaking about setting deposit and loan rates...lending and investment"
Why isn't increasing equity market implied correlation/comovement (and hence kurtosis) more attributable to rising financialization than specific passive/active share – i.e. stock market is increasingly a macro proxy instead of a collection of idiosyncratic stocks...?
... Twitter safe spaces are Twitter Communities and Twitter Spaces is Twitter talk and Twitter's edit button is Twitter's Delete Tweet and Twitter's Vine was Periscope but is now TikTok – you're taking notes, right?!