Thread by @JohnLechner1

Why I’m making no conclusions yet on the deaths of nine Chinese citizens killed at a mining site near Bambari in #CAR.

In short it is *way* too early. Why? (1/n)

https://twitter.com/JohnLechner1/status/1637477635247702017

First, local independent media credited the attack to the armed group coalition CPC. There are credible reports that CPC were in the area, that armed men were looking for Chinese citizens days before. (2/n)

Moreover a few days before 3 Chinese citizens were kidnapped by CPC in the southwest of the country. However, this was likely perpetrated by anti-balaka, while CPC operating in the center of CAR are more likely to be UPC or FPRC affiliated (an FPRC gen was taken at Bria) (3/n)

The armed groups have been desperate for cash, so we cannot rule out a kidnapping gone wrong. The CPC, however, has denied any connection to the attack, instead blaming Russian PMCs (Wagner) (4/n)

That Russian PMCs move into mining sites is no secret. They have also been accused before of stealing Chinese miners’ equipment and pushing them off mining sites. But this attack too represents a *significant* escalation in tactics vs. foreign citizens (5/n)

And it runs in the face of recent patterns to lay low and pursue business interests. The timing is also bizarre, when Xi is visiting Moscow. (6/n)

Whoever committed this attack was very aware of the political implications, and the attack reflects *neither* the CPC nor Russian PMC MO. This is why we need to wait before speculating further (end)