One more thing I'd like to add on the #Wagner discourse in #Niger. The events in Niamey are, I think, a culmination of an increasingly polarized geopolitical environment combined with the arrival of new security partners for African governments (1/n)
What I don't think gets a lot of attention is how narrow the structure of the international system is for African political entrepreneurs: i.e., African governments, political opposition, armed groups etc. (2/n)
Aug 4, 2023 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
A few thoughts on #Wagner and #Niger. I am going to put myself out there, and I may be wrong, but I think it's unlikely we would see Wagner intervene before ECOWAS, for the following reasons: (1/n)
Let me say before, I am not an expert on Niger, on Nigerien politics, or what is going on Niamey. I do know, however, a bit about how #Wagner views its operations in Africa and that's the perspective I'm coming from (2/n)
Mar 20, 2023 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Why I’m making no conclusions yet on the deaths of nine Chinese citizens killed at a mining site near Bambari in #CAR.
First, local independent media credited the attack to the armed group coalition CPC. There are credible reports that CPC were in the area, that armed men were looking for Chinese citizens days before. (2/n)
Mar 13, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
This conversation, to me, shows that people still fundamentally misunderstand Russian PMCs in Africa. Russia (and its PMCs) are inseparable from the larger ecosystem, consisting of local governments, civilians, outside powers, NGOs, etc. (1/n)
Whether a national government partners with Russian PMCs is based almost entirely on local security priorities. Russian PMCs as a potential partner are simply the latest among of slate of potential intervenors (West, particularly France, UN). (2/n)
Feb 23, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts from Bangui on a slew of articles citing U.S. officials and plots regarding Russian PMCs in the Central African Republic. First, the recent Le Monde article (1/n)
lemonde.fr/afrique/articl…
Le Monde claims US diplomats gave Touadera 12 months to get rid of Wagner, and in exchange they would support training for CAR armed forces, increase humanitarian aid, and step up their support to the UN peacekeeping mission (2/n)
Jan 31, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
#CAR update: Some thoughts on the security agreement between the CAR government and #Sudan's Hemedti (a thread)
On December 29, the CAR government, represented by Hassan Bouba (former number two under Ali Darassa's UPC armed group), and Russian PMCs met with reps of Hemedti's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in CAR's northeast town of Birao (1/n)
"don" comes from the Chechen дуй хьуна? (dui hwuna)
First: хьуна is the dative form of the second person singular, i.e., "to you." Literary Chechen has eight cases: nominative, genitive, dative, ergative, instrumental, substantive, comparative, and locative...
