#China_Russia: Xi's trip to Russia to meet Putin reveals many interesting aspects. Starting a longer thread on this (geo)political event: 1) Xi's choice to visit Putin (who is wanted by the ICC) as his first destination after being re-elected for a third term. ⤵️
Xi doesn't care about reputational costs because they don’t exist for him in China or the Global South; 2) Putin has already welcomed Xi's 12-point peace agreement between Ukraine (victim) and Russia (aggressor), and agreed to discuss the details. The respective proposal ⤵️
favors Russia not a long-lasting peace for Ukraine, including the de-occupation of its territories off Russian military forces; 3) Almost immediately upon arrival, Xi endorsed Putin for re-election during the 2024 presidential election.⤵️
This can mean only one thing: China will support Putin’s regime to survive and adapt to the Western sanctions. Otherwise, Putin might find re-election a more complicated exercise, even if, without any internal opposition, this prospect seems quite positive for him.⤵️
4) Putin is flattering Xi by confessing that Russia would be a jealous of China's robust progress, which combines the market mechanisms (actually a performative, yet state-controlled economy) with a stable political course (actually an authoritarian way of ruling). ⤵️
US Secretary of State Blinken said much the same as I wrote above. The US is dissatisfied that Xi is ignoring the ICC decision and is comforting Putin diplomatically.
5) Xi called Putin his very good friend in public, which is a very strong statement. However, Putin/Russia would need just as much to sign energy deals as the deadlines for Power of Siberia 2 or trade in critical minerals.⤵️
Nothing big economically has backed Xi's injection of external legitimacy into Putin, who is in critical need of alternatives to the West to endure the failures of Russian aggression against Ukraine.
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