Chronology of the battle for Bakhmut
#RussianUkrainianWar @Deepstate_UA #Bakhmut
1/8
2/ The battle in the Bakhmut direction began after Popasnaya and Svitlodarsk were captured by Ru in May 2022. Bakhmut became the next city on the way of the Ru army. It is hard to imagine, but already in June 2022 Ru troops were 10 km from Bakhmut
3/ But in general, the pace of the offensive was the highest in the first months of the fighting. At that time, Russia captured territories 5 times larger than now, losing 10 times fewer soldiers.
4/ June-August: the total losses of the Russians averaged about 200-300 soldiers per day (along the entire front line of 1,300 km). The Bakhmut direction is usually noted in the chronicles as one of the main places of battles along with Kherson, Kharkiv, and Donetsk.
5/ Russia probably lost <50 soldiers a day at Bakhmut then
facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
6/ October-December:
Usually, Ukrainian officials talk about Russian losses in the Bakhmut direction as 50-100 killed per day
kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ukra…
7/In January, more and more people are talking about 200 killed per day, or more. And in February-March, estimates of the losses of Russia and the Wagner group reached an absolute maximum - an average of 200-400 killed per day
pravda.com.ua/news/2023/02/1…
8/ General Mark Milley speaks of maximum losses of 1,200 killed per day
economist.com/graphic-detail…

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More from @Volodymyr_D_

Mar 15
We all see many statements about war losses that are difficult to put together.
How can Ukraine lose 5 times fewer killed and at the same time the total number of losses is called 200K/120K in Ru/Ua?
I will try to explain it briefly:
#RussiaUkraineWar #RussianArmy
1/14
2/14
1. Different ratio of killed/wounded
In the Russian army, the ratio of killed/wounded troops is usually called 1/3. In the Ukrainian army - 1/7-1/8, and sometimes even as much as 1/10 or more.
There is a great point @shashj about this:
3/14
2. Different types of troops
When they talk about the losses of the Russian army, they usually mean the regular troops of Ru. But in addition, more than 50K "LDNR", 50K "Wagner", and several thousand volunteer battalions such as "Bars", "Rusich" and others.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 15
Losses in wars
I decided to compare losses in different wars in order to understand how big Russia's losses are in this war
1/12
#RussianArmy #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar
2/12 Average daily losses of the main attacking country:
1. Germany (World War II) - 2415 killed soldiers per day.
2. USSR (Finnish War 1939) - 1440
3. Germany (World War I) - 1280
4. Russia (Ukrainian war 2022) - 380 (about 650 per day after mobilization).
3/12
5. North Korea (Korean War 1950) - 337
6. Russia (Russian-Japanese War 1904) - 115
7. Russia (First Chechen War 1994) - 22
8. USA (War in Vietnam 1964-75) - 20
9. USSR (Afghan War 1979-1989) - 4
10. USA (Iraq War 2003-2009) - 2
Read 12 tweets
Jan 23
How Russia's tactics have changed since the beginning of the war - 4 strategies of the Russian command 1/
#russianlosses #Russiawar #UkraineRussiaWar ImageImage
Phase I - Blitzkrieg
Initially, the Ru attack was planned as a large-scale rapid operation from the air, land and water. It was planned in 4 acts:
Act 1: A large-scale missile attack was supposed to suppress the Ukrainian air defense system and create chaos in defense management
Act 2: The main role was planned for amphibious operations. Which were to quickly capture key objects and capture government buildings in the main cities - Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa
Ru planned to use hundreds of helicopters, at least 18 large Il-76 planes and a naval landing force
Read 25 tweets
Dec 20, 2022
Balance of power
This is a comparison of the available military power of Ukraine and Russia (according to open data) 1/17
#UkraineRussiaWar #RussiaInvadedUkraine #ATACMSForUkraine #OSINT Image
2/17 Now I only have electricity for 4-6 hours a day, so I can't spend as much time on Twitter as I used to.
But I finally got to my calculations and clarified them to give you a clear picture (it may not be perfect and contain errors, like any analytics).
3/17 In general, the gap between Ukraine and Russia in military power is gradually decreasing.
This happens both because Russia has heavy losses and because Ukraine maintains or even strengthens its power due to the help of allies and war trophies. Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 28, 2022
In 9 months, Russia has already spent a quarter of its annual budget on the war, but the needs of the war will only grow 1/20
#RussiaIsLosing #RussiaUkraineWar #RussianArmy #UkraineUnderAttack @HelloMrBond Image
2/20 Russia's direct military costs for the 9 months of the war, are about $82 bln. This estimate includes direct costs that are necessary to support military operations. The estimate does not include others defense spending or economic losses forbes.ua/war-in-ukraine…
3/20 In 2021, all budget revenues of Russia amounted to $340 billion. That is, the Russian Federation has already spent a quarter of last year's revenues on the war against Ukraine.
Read 20 tweets
Nov 3, 2022
The number of weapons that the West has/supplies to Ukraine
How many Western countries have weapons and how many of these weapons were transferred to Ukraine during the 8 months of the war?
1/17
#russianinvasion #UkraineRussiaWar #Artillery #atacmsforukraine
2/17 NATO transferred 1.4-3.6% of its heavy weapons systems to Ukraine. The highest percentage is for artillery - about 3.6%.
3/ The need for artillery remains the most acute because Ukraine has minimal stocks of shells for Soviet artillery systems of 122/152mm caliber.
The transition to NATO artillery began in April. And in half a year, Ukraine received about 400 artillery systems of 105/155mm caliber
Read 17 tweets

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