Russia and China were masterfully wedged by the Nixon Admin and Kissinger with the help of Pakistan, which was then led by Gen Yahya.
Now, history has brought the two Cold War Rivals closer.
This will create new Geopolitical, Geoeconomics and Geostrategic risks for the USA.
The biggest foreign policy and strategic failure of the USA has been that it didn't see the thaw between Iran and KSA coming
The entire Muslim world is now bifurcated into Russian & Chinese Camps
Hardly any Muslim nation will back America if a war breaks out between larger powers
Pakistan, the only Moslem Power with nuclear weapons, is the closest Chinese Ally not just in South Asia but the whole world.
It's akin to Italy under the Axis Power cosigned Pact of Steel or how Austro Hungarian Empire was buttressing the Kaiser.
BRI's epicentre is Gawadar.
Don't know how the Malay Triangle which consists of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei will tie themselves in SE Asia, but at least two out of these three are largely Anti-Semite Nations.
Malaysia under DR M blamed George Soro, Jews and the Quantum Fund for attacking the currency.
They are some in Indonesia who won't forget the CIA's role in overthrowing Sukarno's regime and the communist revolutionaries during the Cold War.
Then AFC overthrew Suharto.
Later, the dismembered East Timor caused embarrassment.
Indonesia will go with China or Russia.
So the USA and its allies will be facing a three-pronged challenge in International Politics and Relations.
One coming from Russia, China and the unified Moslem Bloc which is now led by Erdoğan, MBS+ MBZ, and Iranian-backed Shia Moslem Nations and their proxies.
Sensible?
#Afghanistan was a good listening post for the Americans due to its proximity to China, Pakistan, Iran, and the CIS Bloc
The overthrow of the American-backed regime of Ashraf Ghani has dealt a severe blow to the Yanks in SWA South West Asia.
Russia is befriending the Taliban
Potential nuclear flashpoints remain ->
1. War in Ukraine
2. Kashmir
3. Two Koreas
4. Taiwan
5. South China Sea where a contest b/w China and primarily Japan and Vietnam cant be ruled out.
The most unnoticed development in Latin America is one which involves the growing influence of China in the Argentinian military upgrade
The Chinese alongside Pakistan might sell their co-manufactured multi-role fighter jet to the Argies
JF 17 Thunder Block 3
Remember #Falklands?
If the Chinese and the Russians can market their weapon systems on easier credit terms to the Latinos, African and Caribbean Nations, then it will be reminiscent of 1962-style tensions when Cuba was being homed by the Soviets to keep an eye on the American Geostrategic moves.
Actually, Donald Trump despite his rhetoric understood the importance of the Moslem Nations in International Politics and Economics.
He kept KSA on his side and kept the Arabs, the Persians, and the Turks equally divided.
Played a role in easing tensions btw India and Pakistan.
Both Biden today and previously, Obama made the same mistakes.
Myopic!
Both president didn't understand foreign policy, national defence and security imperatives in International Relations, Politics, Economics, and Military Geostrategy.

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More from @SAH16928046

Mar 21
Two striking resemblances btw #SVB & former @CreditSuisse.
Both banks did not pay attention to the top 8–20 risks, which every board must.
Either these banks kept their risk desks understaffed or didn't hire key managerial position holders at all.
Why?
Need introspection now.
@CreditSuisse It was reported on this forum that #SVB did not have a CRO for some 8 months during the VC Market spiralling.
Also, I read just now that former @CreditSuisse was sacking key MDs in their across their risk desks.
This trend continued since the #Archegos fiasco surfaced after 2019
CRO Chief Risk Officer or Head of Risk Management is a key managerial decision-making position and C Suite Level role which every financial institution can afford to keep empty these days.
The Front, Middle, and Back Office roles form key lines of defence against top risks.
Read 120 tweets
Mar 13
Not every financial company should be structured as a bank, thereby accepting deposits, intermediating funds across markets, and reporting capital adequacy ratios using the @BIS guidelines.
This is the lesson I derive from the #SVBCollapse
#SVBCrash
@Bis What is the point of pasting SVB CAR and Capital Ratio Metrics?
What sense could one derive from them before the run began?
They didn't reveal the full picture to the creditors, depositors, or shareholders.
CAR is a metric which exemplifies loss absorption capacity
Now?#SVBCrash
We need to revert to the Glass Steagall Act to understand economic history.
Why it was introduced in the aftermath of the Great Depression.
Why FDR and his team drew Chinese walls between Investment and Retail Banking institutions?
federalreservehistory.org/essays/glass-s….
Read 6 tweets
Mar 13
Yes, we have spoken a lot about public failure and the lessons we draw from the Socialist Bloc nations of Eastern Europe during the Cold War and the USSR as their patron-in-chief, which broke up due to state inefficiencies
We are not quick to pontificate about Market Failure
#SVB
After GFC and several other frauds and financial failures within the private sector post-2008, it is time we hold corporate white-collar workers accountable for their misdeeds.
Yes, not everything is Fraud or portends to be a Financial Crime.
But, incompetence is a Moral Crime!
LTCM, Enron and WorldCom, GFC were only the tips of the iceberg.
American Corporate Management Standards have tremendously deteriorated due to a lack of professional ethics, or possibly due to a lack of competition.
When Japan & West Germany were competing, the Yanks did well.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
Mutual funds do come with lock-in features! Especially if you are investing in a capital-protected product, you are not entitled to early encashment for a certain time.
Redemptions are deterred with the backend load.
#Backstops are required in the banking arena beyond penalties
Of course, if you park liquidity in a time deposit liability side product, at a bank, you might have to pay a penalty for early withdrawal.
But, the highest liquidity risk is emanating from the sight deposits pool.
Run-on-the-bank risk is hard to mitigate if assets don't sell
Also, the standard practice is to call in the treasury department and borrow short-term through the interbank market to fund liquidity drains.
Call and Clean lending is done via the wholesale market for Fi credits.
Also, Repo markets can be used.
Read 16 tweets
Mar 12
The #SVBCrash also further exposes the uselessness of the Basel 3 Accord and its modifications over the years
Why nobody is discussing the utter failure of @BIS_org which makes financial institutions invest billions in technology and staff recruitment, etc
We need answers
@BIS_org And the liquidity risk metrics reporting and filing which were introduced by @BIS_org under BASEL 3 were not fully implemented by the FED beyond certain large banks
But, still, certain aspects of Basel 3 were fully incorporated by the #SVB to make risk disclosures to the public.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 30
#Incident reporting should follow & precede #riskmanagement?
The two are slightly different areas of specialization
in the office environment.
It is akin to the debate between #reliability and #safety.
Both are contrasting concepts in organizational #resilience studies.
They are certain leading businesses including big banks that have separated incident reporting desks from risk management co-ordination cells.
Actually, incidents are events which require an eye and a taxonomy for recognition.
Coding outcome events into loss database is essential
The most difficult area in financial risk management was the coding of operational risk incidents or potential events having adverse negative probabilistic outcomes, which can yield material quantifiable losses in the financial statements.
@BIS_org changed the AMA RiskMetrics
Read 13 tweets

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