The reports of a Ukrainian attack on a train allegedly carrying Russian missiles in #Crimea is interesting. While the nature of the target is to be confirmed, there are a couple of potential implications. 1/10
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/21…
amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/21…
2/ First, despite the overwhelming focus on the Battle of #Bakhmut at the moment by many, #Ukraine is continuing as well with its ‘deep fight’ against Russian operational and strategic targets.
3/ This is important because it forces the Russians to rethink their force posture and defensive deployments in Crimea and beyond. 
4/ And it allows the Ukrainians to collect intelligence on Russian responses in Crimea as the Ukrainian Armed Forces plan future military operations there.
5/ A second implication is that it places further pressure on Russia’s limited stocks of missiles. Several sources confirm Russia is now only able to fire what it produces monthly - its war stocks have been used extensively in the past year.
6/ Third, it is an indication of how Ukraine will be able to conduct such strikes across Crimea, with greater frequently, once it takes back more of its southern territory. Ultimately, if Ukraine can make Crimea untenable for Russian military forces, it helps Ukrainian strategy.
7/ Finally, it reinforces that Ukraine will target Russian forces wherever they are in Ukrainian territory and keeps the ‘Crimea issue’ live. Despite the misgivings of some about taking back #Crimea, strikes like this make it clear Ukraine intends to take it back.
8/ A final interesting issue is the timing. Coming as Xi visits Putin for their Moscow authoritarian lovefest, it could permit Putin to reinforce the case for Chinese assistance. But, it is more likely to cause Putin embarrassment in front of his ‘friend’ more than anything else.
9/ Strikes like this are not war winning silver bullets. But, their impact is cumulative on the degradation of Russian morale and war fighting capability. End.
10/ Thank you to the following whose links and images were used in this thread: @cnn @DefenceHQ @abcnews @noclador
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