Of ∼800,000 initial Russian invasion force and troops added later, Ukraine estimated 166,570 were killed as of 3/21
Based on Western estimates of a 3-to-1 wounded-to-killed ratio for Russian losses in the war, that means ∼500,000 wounded, for a total of ∼666,000 casualties /2
Of the Russian wounded, based on calculations using data from previous wars and reports from the current war, I estimate 250,000 have returned to battle, 150,000 still getting medical care and 100,000 are permanently out of action 3/
This means nearly 420,000 Russian troops are dead or out of the fight, or 52% of the 800,000 total
A military unit that has lost over 50 percent of its personnel is commonly seen as needing to be withdrawn from battle because of a loss of combat effectiveness 4/
A 1997 US Army field manual says a unit with >50% losses is “combat ineffective” and “requires reconstitution before [its] next mission”
Soldiers may still be able to put up a fight, but not effectively as a cohesive military force
Based on the above data, Russia's army crossed the 50% threshold in mid-March, coinciding with reports of its offensive starting to peter out and Russia deciding to mobilize 400K more troops
It earlier crossed the threshold in October amid its catastrophic initial war losses 6/
Western estimates of Russian losses are lower than Ukrainian losses, but in my opinion they're implausibly low
An EU military official estimated them at 250,000 in mid-November, and they've remained in that range ever since - despite some of the heaviest fighting of the war 8/
Since mid-November, Ukraine's estimate of Russian losses has doubled.
Secondly, the 250,000 casualty estimate implies there are 650,000 Russian troops in and around Ukraine - about two times more than Western and Ukrainian officials believe are there 9/
Up to 350,000 RU troops are thought to be in and around Ukraine. Also, up to 97% of Putin's army is believed to be deployed to the war
Western estimates of RU losses don't add up with those figures and seem outdated or too conservative
Ukrainians crowdfund their fight against genocide
🇺🇦 troops used drones (mostly from donations/volunteers) to destroy 43% of enemy equipment lost since Russia's Avdiivka offensive Oct 9-Nov 6
➡40% of tanks
➡52% of arty/MLRS
➡54% of special equipment like high-value EW
🇺🇦Bulava Presidential Fly Team BBQs 🥩 two entrenched enemy automatic grenade launcher positions
🚀Using @wilendhornets FPV drones
🙏A record 350 went to the front last month thanks to your donations!
➡Let's send more! PayPal: donate@svoboda-ukrainy.com
Fedorov's drone strikes are all reported as video-confirmed. This suggests...
➡OSINT sites catch only a small % of actual enemy war losses (@WarSpotting has only 95 tanks KOed Oct 9-Nov 6, half of Fedorov's #)
➡🇺🇦 data on enemy losses is likely accurate
Ukraine has advanced 5-17 km in the Zaporizhya region, breached Russia's first line of defenses and liberated over a dozen communities, according to the site Volya, citing Ukrainian and Russian contacts
@WarMonitors:⚡️Video showing Russian troops withdrawing from positions in the Zaporizhia frontline due to the concentration of the Ukrainian offensive in the area
"Timed exactly to disrupt the Ukrainian counteroffensive, there is no doubt that the culprit is Russia": Dnipro River Foundation director
Despite "overwhelming" evidence Russia destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam, unleashing a Chornobyl-scale ecological catastrophe, the Western… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
"The dam was destroyed from the center, which some experts say rules out a dam failure as the damage would start from the edges of the dam in such a scenario. Destruction of the dam from explosives would require the use of hundreds of pounds of explosives and would best be done… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
That's 800,000 casualties out of about 900,000 Russian troops in the initial invasion and recruited since.
Keep in mind most wounded eventually return to combat. Based on data from this and past wars, about half of Russian wounded have likely returned to combat after med care /2
The data suggests over 53% of those 900,000 troops are out of action (killed, disabled, recovering, missing or captured)
A common rule of thumb is that a military force losing over 50% of its troops is considered combat ineffective and needs to be withrawn to be reconstituted /3
Q: Does [Putin] really have cancer?
A: Yes, we fully confirm this information. He has several serious illnesses, one of which is cancer.
But it is not worth hoping that Putin will die tomorrow. He has at least a few more years. Like it or not, it's true.
Budanov: Look at the history of any dictator of the XX-XXI century. They ended the same, absolutely all. None of them ended differently. In most cases, they died against their will... Putin will end the same way.
"Also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia, with a bold letter Z crossing out all hopes and prospects for a prosperous free society in our country"
"Those who conceived this war want only one thing - to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity"