1/ Hello,
i had too many thing to deal with this afternoon and i came back home late, so i won't be able to do a full recap tonight.
i'll do it during the week.
just few elements i gathered all day long :
first of all about #Bakhmut
Russians seems to be contain in the north
2/ but in the south along the river & the direction of the city center, they have apparently made some progress (even if nothing certain can be said right now as we have only geoloc vids of "conflicts" areas.
if true they are 1km away to possibly make a junction along the river
3/ also there is some indications of some progress to the S-W of the football field in the South part of the city. Ru claims last 48h to have units passed the famous Marioupolska street seems confirms.
but (in the orange area) there is no other proves than small Ru units for now
4/ meaning if UKR high command decides to send more reinforcements, like last week, they might be able to take it back. right now it's more a devastated waste land in all the vids available.
some Ukr "tik toker" reports that situation is under control, but they r losing grounds
5/ now, North #Kupiansk Ru might have finally taken the city of #Hryanykivka #Гряниківка 62701
(you can look up with hashtags about all my previous threads about it)
so it gives now the opportunity to Ru to focus on the south front, and try to advance to #Kupiansk north area.
6/ Now, north part of #Mariinka area, Ru are advancing 50 to 100m to the west ... in the directio of .... nowhere actually.
the only "advantage" would be to get entrenched with some mortars to shell UKR defenders in Mariinka. but nothing to be really concern about right now.
7/ and that's about it.
as i said this morning nothing dramatic
the second "best army" on planet earth was able to make progress on the equivalent of 2 football stadium today.

really impressive... (me being sarcastic fyi)
they are stuck. that's as simple as that.
8/

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More from @HeliosRunner

Mar 26
I hope that no one in Europe or US will ever forget abt #Assad mass murderer and that in couple years from now, when Ru will have only butter knives left to defend one the worst criminal in recent history we will go there to bring him back to the @IntelCrimCourt @CourPenaleInt
2/ because this guy is responsible like Putin of almost 8 millions permanent refugees (by the way none one them to this day really created any problems in the countries they went to) and hundreds thousands of direct murders including massacre of children by chemical attacks or
3/ even torture and rape...
hundreds thousands. like 10 times more that the worst Russians ever did until now (& they did really terrible things out there)
so i hope we are not just simply going to forget about that guy and all his croonies...
that would be worse than all.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 25
1/ ok... wooof... there is a lot to say here as usual

(Ping les gens incompétents chez @LCI qui il ya 2 semaines faisaient la promo de ce débile complet on m'a fait passer qq extraits de vids connaissant mon "amour" pour cette serpillère/idiot utile du FSB ) Image
2/ first of all if the numbers were correct there would no more war for months. Also everybody is ramping the production and soon enough Ukrainians will have exactly, if not more shell and better ammo than RUssians (also GPS kit etc)

then the production of MBT will never reach
3/ 16 hundreds as they are -max- able to produce about 12 to 14 MBT (T-90) per month.
AND huge "caveats" => there is no more optics & all the "electronic" parts are now made by China grade products not able to perform & to be reliable as the components they were using before.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 23
1/ I could not agree more with Michael @michael_wasiura on that subject (& on other situations by the way) as it just drove me nuts for months... here excellent paper :
Undersupplied #Ukraine prepares #SpringOffensive with limited western arms newsweek.com/undersupplied-…
2/ so this morning i have posted this (see link below)
& have received numerous questions from friends, but i can't answer all (first of because i'm no psychic & also because there are too many variables now)
But i just wanted to let people know that this
3/ famous counter attack #SpringOffensive could appear (maybe not in some areas) as an "anti climax" situation, for months, and then things can suddenly change. we don't know, just don't expect sudden actions like in a Hollywood movie.
i mean even D day was followed by terrible
Read 6 tweets
Mar 23
1/ So there is this video out there and #Prigozhin (with a map they draw only for the occasion & with big errors by the way) who wants to communicate something, like "he knows" about Ukr plans and the possible outcomes of a huge counter offensive.
but is it really to perform
2/ to perform an act (like for example Girkin is doing quite often) or simply (as i believe) because now he start to understand his own potential is going lower and lower by day, & by doing do, he wants to protect his own image of "conqueror" saying : "see! it's not my fault! i
3/ never had enough ressources in terms of man & materials (to accomplish what i should have accomplish with proper ressources & help from the Kremlin...)

before the ship sinks, the rats start to move out...

also the vid here :
Read 4 tweets
Mar 21
1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on March 21, 2023
#RussianArmy is no more giving the tempo of ongoing operations along the front-line. Weak attacks are recorded everywhere except in the #Avdiivka area on small zones outside the city.
#UkraineMap
2/ As the situation in #Avdiivka is very fluid (i have recorded dozens of attacks/counterattacks last week, to draw the exact FEBA line is not realist, but according to several reports it is likely looking like below to date. Ru are now trying to go with their previous moves,
3/ so going on the direction & led offensive actions in the areas of #Novobakhmutivka, #Krasnohorivka, #Avdiivka itself, #Syeverne, #Pervomayske but despite huge ressources in materials & men were not able to really capitalize anywhere where offensives took place. only small
Read 22 tweets
Mar 19
1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on March 19, 2023
#RussianArmy has stalled almost everywhere.
All Ru forces seems to be employed in the area of #Bakhmut & #Avdiivka. some minor progress have been noticed in few places
nothing dramatic.
#UkraineMap
2/ Generally speaking the situation is the same as yesterday and both parties and several sources agrees on the fact, nothing has really changed so far on the frontline. so no need for big "blahblah".
the only location where Russians are progressing is south #Bakhmut & that"s it
3/ to be more precise Gen staff indicates it has stopped the Ru progress in the north of the city (first time mentioning precisely a location there) & with lots of Geolocs from AFU in the south & diff Ru true reports, there is obvious progress for them there.
one of the only
Read 14 tweets

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