I have just begun my annual re-read of John @Scalzi’s superb novel of future war, “Old Man’s War”. It is one of the few books that I re-read frequently (another is Clausewitz’s “On War”). I thought I would explain why in a thread that started short, but grew as I wrote. 1/15 🧵
2/ Old Man’s War gets war right. While technology & society drive change in the character of war, there is much that is enduring. This includes the human-centricity of conflict, as well as the friction, uncertainty and terror experienced by combatant. @scalzi describes this well.
3/ The novel explores adaptation. Soldier scholar Sir Michael Howard once wrote that it was less important to predict or prepare for the next fight than it was to ensure one’s institution had the leadership and culture to learn and adapt more quickly than an enemy once war began.
4/ It is an important insight. As we have seen in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has adapted quickly across many areas to stay ahead and defeat their Russian adversaries. Scalzi explores the importance of adaptation during the book.
5/ Technology matters, but does not provide a silver bullet in warfare. Technologies such as space travel, biological augmentation, communication among others help paint the picture of a future military environment in Old Man’s War.
6/ However, it is important to explore the implications of new technologies on near future conflict. Not only do new technologies impact the doctrines and tactics of fighting, they also influence strategy and political decision making.
7/ The ethics of war is examined. Just war theory explores jus ad bellum (the ethics of making decisions to go to war) and jus in bello (the ethics of conduct in war). Scalzi covers both of these in this novel, and in more detail in subsequent books in the series.
8/ Related to this, Old Man’s War explores the price of combat on individuals. No one can fight for long without it taking a psychological toll. The books covers this well. As the main character, John Perry notes after one particular battle…
9/ “Maybe that’s what’s bothering me. There’s no sense of consequence. I just took a living, thinking thing and hurled it into the side of a building. Doing it didn’t bother me at all. The fact that it didn’t does bother me.”
10/ “There ought to be consequences to our actions. We have to acknowledge at least some of the horror of what we do, whether we’re doing it for good reasons or not.” This speaks to military personnel having to be trained, educated and led with our values always in sight.
11/ Intelligence. The collection, analysis, dissemination & use of intelligence is the hallmark of successful military organisations. This is also an integral part of Old Man’s War. It highlights to military and national security professionals the importance of this process.
12/ Training. Training not only physically and intellectually prepares soldiers - individuals & teams - for the rigors of combat. It also provides the means for them to survive their first weeks on the battlefield so they can learn & adapt. It is emphasized in this book.
13/ Leadership. Good leaders always get better results from teams and more inspired performance from individuals. The book is full of insights into leadership and leading teams in challenging situations. These lessons cover good and bad leadership styles.
14/ I know military #scifi is not everyone’s cup of tea. But it is one of my favorite genres, and I think there is much we can learn from it. And, if you are thinking of reading your first military sci-fi novel, this is a great one to start with.
15/ Every time I read this book, I am a little older and have acquired new and different experiences. This means I am reading the book through slightly different eyes. I learn something, and ponder things anew, with each reading of Old Man’s War. End.
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Over the last 2 months, Russia has undertaken a series of thrusts in eastern #Ukraine to capture territory & weaken Ukraine’s armed forces. Soon, it will be the turn of the Ukrainians to resume their offensive operations. 1/20 🧵
2/ It is important to explore the purpose of these offensives because those planning them will have to balance multiple political, strategic and military imperatives for the coming attacks against Russian forces. abc.net.au/news/2023-03-2…
3/ Purpose in these circumstances is vital. It provides the starting point for strategy, and operational planning. But, it also ensures that those who will participate in these offensives understand why they do so.
This week saw the failure of Russia’s President Putin to openly elicit military assistance from China for his special military operation. It could be a strategic turning point of the war, particularly as #Ukraine launches its offensives. 1/25
2/25 Ukraine, which has long telegraphed its 2023 offensives, is likely to launch these attacks soon. I would note there will not be just be one big push, but probably several different offensives. mickryan.substack.com/p/the-coming-u…
3/25 This is because both the south and the east present opportunities for offensive action. It is also because the Ukrainians will want to deceive Russia about their main effort. The south in particular has significant economic importance to Ukraine.
The reports of a Ukrainian attack on a train allegedly carrying Russian missiles in #Crimea is interesting. While the nature of the target is to be confirmed, there are a couple of potential implications. 1/10 amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/03/21…
2/ First, despite the overwhelming focus on the Battle of #Bakhmut at the moment by many, #Ukraine is continuing as well with its ‘deep fight’ against Russian operational and strategic targets.
3/ This is important because it forces the Russians to rethink their force posture and defensive deployments in Crimea and beyond.
In military operations, we often speak about ‘momentum’ and ‘seizing the initiative’. It is a term used in military publications, and heavily emphasised in #leadership & operations. Today, an examination of whether Russia is generating momentum in #Ukraine. 1/25 🧵
2/ The essence of seizing the initiative is gaining a position of advantage relative to an enemy & denying the enemy their objectives. Military leaders seek to disrupt enemy decision making, make their plans irrelevant &, force the enemy respond to friendly initiative.
3/ At the beginning of Russian invasion, the Russians seized the initiative. Despite the extraordinary courage of Ukraine’s defenders, Russian Army forces were able to seize over 20% of Ukraine and keep Ukraine on the defensive for the first six months of the war.
The Battle of #Bakhmut has now raged since August 2022. The massive human and material resources expended by Russians on this objective may soon necessitate a Ukrainian withdrawal. 1/25 🧵
2/ Back in October last year, I examined how withdrawals are conducted and some of their considerations for the Russians in Kherson. I will apply a similar approach for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in #Bakhmut. washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/…
3/ Withdrawals, which are considered a ‘retrograde operation’ in US Army doctrine, are designed to allow a force to disengage from the enemy and redeploy on a new mission or to a new location, while minimising casualties.
This is an another excellent thread from @Tatarigami_UA that explores Russian tactical adaptation in eastern #Ukraine. In particular, the shift to infiltration tactics is interesting. A thread on tactical innovation and why it needs to be nested within operational plans. 1/22 🧵
2/ These types of infiltration tactics are something that also emerged as a solution to a stalemate on the Western front in WW1. While generally the Germans are given credit for this (known as Stormtrooper tactics), this approach originated elsewhere.
3/ French officer, Captain Andre Laffargue, was wounded in 1915 and during his convalescence wrote a pamphlet called "The Attack in Trench Warfare". You can read it here: gutenberg.org/files/60197/60…