1/ Ukraine TVD, 20 FEB-07 APR 23. The past 7 weeks saw a continuation of the Russian Winter Offensive as major pushes continued in Kreminna, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. Russia made important gains, Ukrainian defenses continue to hold. #UkraineRussiaWar#RussianArmy#UkraineFrontLines
2/ Current weather outlook for the Ukraine TVD. The mud season will continue to impede maneuver, especially in severely restricted terrain. The weather favors small-scale assault forces. Night operations will continue to be difficult.
3/ Operational Terms. To assist in easy of comprehension of the threads graphics, here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions. (note: I am still refining and updating this list, please bear with me as I do, thank you).
4/ North OD. The Northern Operational Direction (OD) remains the principal support zone for both Russian and t Ukrainian forces. Activity remains centered on cross border artillery strikes along key lines of communication to disrupt reconstitution & training efforts. #Sumy
5/ Luhansk OD. The pace of operations in this Operational Direction (OD) has slowed for both Russian and Ukrainian forces. Fighting has been centered on Hryanykivka on the Oskil River, Novoselivske (NEof Svatove), and the area between Chervonopopivka and Nevske. #Luhansk
6/ Donetsk OD. Donetsk Oblast remains the decisive OD for Russian Ground Forces. Developments in Avdiivka have been overshadowed by the focus on Bakhmut. Russian gains here are the most worrisome to the integrity of Ukraine's defense of the Donbas Strategic Front. #Donetsk
7/ Kreminna AO. SVRF offensive action along this line of operation continues but has slowed in pace and scale. Russian attacks persist through the Serebrian Forest towards Serebryanka & the Siverskyi-Donets. 2d AC continued its attack from Shypylvka towards Bilohorivk #Kreminna
8/ Bakhmut AO. Bakhmut remains the critical Objective Point of Maneuver in the Donbas. The fall of Krasna Hora in mid-February turned into a pivotal event for Russian forces, as it set tactical conditions for Wagner Group & the VDV to advance deep into north Bakhmut #Bakhmut
9/ Avdiivka AO. The SVRF has made important gains in Avdiivka, capturing more territory in the past 7-weeks than since hostilities resumed in Feb 2022. Russian success has come at a high price, however these gains threaten to dislodge the ZSU from prepared defenses. #Avdiivka
10/ Zaporizhzhia OD. The most significant development in the Zaporizhzhia OD over the past 7-weeks was the localized ZSU counterattack south of Orikhiv which managed to push into Novodanylivka, liberating the town. #Zaporizhzhia
11/ Vuhledar AO. Russian efforts to capture Vuhledar have largely ground to a halt. This has allowed Ukrainian forces in the Vuhledar area to conduct a series of small-scale counter attacks that have pushed back against what little gains the Russians made in Jan 2023 #Vuhledar
12/ Kherson OD. Russian forces will continue an active defense on the Dnipro River with a focus on gaining control over the Dnipro Delta. UKR forces will continue to probe Russian defenses while missile & artillery strikes target logistic nodes in Kherson and Crimea. #Kherson
13/ Ukraine OTMO. The Black Seas Fleet remains focused on force protection of vessels, facilities, & personnel rather than offensive operations or active patrolling of sea lanes & the northern Black Sea coast / littoral. #Sevastopol
14/ Ukraine SVKO. Russian aerospace forces continue to prioritize targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure & troop concentrations over suppression of Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian HIMARS & UCAVs will continue targeting Russian supply & command nodes. #airdefensefofukraine
15/ This is another short update focused on theater wide actions of the past seven weeks. Again thank you for your patients, suggestions, & continued support as I start to increase content in the coming weeks.
16/ This open-source operational summary of the Ukrainian TVD is based on information from the ZSU & VSRF daily operations briefs, various Ukrainian & Russian Telegram channels, western intel agencies public statements, military analysts, & my own professional experience.
17/ Any errors to the information presented here is strictly my own and will be corrected as soon as it is discovered.
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1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1121: March 17-18, 2025, was marked by a significant escalation in ground and air operations across multiple fronts. In the north, Ukrainian forces have largely withdrawn from the Kursk region while simultaneously launching a surprise offensive in Russia's Belgorod Oblast.
The Donbas Strategic Direction, particularly in the Donetsk and Luhansk Fronts, remains heavily contested, with the largest concentration of Russian and Ukrainian forces. In the Southern Strategic Direction, the Russian buildup of forces, which started in December 2024, has now transitioned into a renewed offensive push to the west of Orikhiv. This push is likely to isolate the city and force a Ukrainian withdrawal to the Stepnohirsk-Novopavlivka line.
Air operations have intensified, with Ukraine launching a major drone attack on Russia's Engels airbase, involving 54 drones, while Russia retaliated with massive drone and missile strikes across Ukrainian cities. The naval theater remains relatively quiet.
Diplomatically, discussions around a temporary ceasefire focusing on energy and infrastructure targets are ongoing without concrete resolutions. The conflict continues to have significant economic impacts, exacerbating inflationary pressures and trade disruptions. The situation remains highly dynamic and volatile, with both sides engaged in intense combat operations and strategic maneuvers across multiple regions. #UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #Belgorod #Zaporizhzhia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Direction Orikhiv: From February 25 to March 20, 2025, intense combat operations took place in Operational Direction Orikhiv. Russian forces made gradual gains along the Lobkove-Stepove-Mali Shcherbaky line at a significant cost in personnel and equipment. However, Ukrainian troops demonstrated resilience and tactical effectiveness in their defense of the region, successfully thwarting many Russian advances.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1119: The period of March 17-18, 2025, was marked by significant Russian territorial gains, particularly in Kursk Oblast. These gains were balanced by continued Ukrainian resistance and offensive capabilities. The high casualty rates and extensive infrastructure damage underscored the war’s continued intensity.
The partial ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure attacks represents a notable diplomatic development, though it falls short of a comprehensive resolution. The strategic landscape remains complex, with both sides maneuvering for military advantage while engaging in high-stakes diplomatic negotiations that will shape the conflict's future and the broader geopolitical environment.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha #toretsk #Zaporizhzhia
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Toretsk-Nui York Area of Operations: OTU Luhansk demonstrated superior effectiveness in its initial assault to retake Toretsk, which began on February 25. This is evidenced by the swift and brutal attack led by elite Ukrainian units, particularly the Lyut brigade, which overran the exhausted Russian defenders, setting the tone for the entire operation.
While Russian forces have implemented defensive measures and counter-strikes, they have struggled to match the effectiveness of the Ukrainian operations. The effectiveness of the Ukrainian counterattack puts pressure on Russian military leadership. The need to defend Toretsk while maintaining operations elsewhere may force a reevaluation of Russian military objectives and resource allocation.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1114: Fierce combat persisted across the Donbas Strategic Direction, especially north of Chasiv Yar and in the Kostiantynopil regions. Russian troops made attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defensive positions using heavy artillery and infantry assaults but encountered strong resistance, leading to limited territorial advances.
In the Southern Strategic Direction, Ukrainian forces executed precise strikes on Russian ammunition depots in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which disrupted supply lines and hampered Russian artillery effectiveness.
The Northern Strategic Direction saw an uptick in cross-border shelling from Russian forces into Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts, which led Ukraine to bolster its defensive setups in these areas.
Concurrently, Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure continued, with Ukrainian air defenses successfully intercepting most incoming threats; however, there was some minor damage to energy facilities in Kyiv and Dnipro.
#UkraineRussiaWar #Kursk #Sudzha
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Direction Kursk: In the past two and a half weeks, OUV Kursk has effectively utilized its operational advantages over recent months to defeat OTU Siversk in the Kursk Oblast. While it is nearly certain OTU Siversk will shift to a defensive posture in Sumy Oblast, it’s uncertain how much force structure OUV Kursk will retain for future operations.
1/ A breakthrough or a deadlock? The Jeddah agreement, reached on March 11, 2025, between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, marks a significant development in efforts to address the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. This comprehensive agreement includes a cease-fire proposal and economic terms, with mixed reactions from Russia. As the world watches, all eyes are on Moscow's response. Will this lead to peace or another impasse? Is this the road to Minsk III? Here are the key details:
#UkraineWar #Ceasefire #Geopolitics
2/ Cease-Fire Proposal
The centerpiece of the Jeddah agreement is a U.S.-proposed 30-day cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia. The main aspects of this cease-fire include:
1. Duration: An immediate, interim period of 30 days that can be extended by mutual agreement. 2. Scope: The ceasefire encompasses the entire front line of the conflict, including aerial and naval operations. 3. Comprehensive coverage: It encompasses all forms of combat, including missile, drone, and bomb attacks. 4. Conditional implementation: The cease-fire depends on Russia's acceptance and simultaneous implementation.
1/ Ukrainian TVD Operational Update (Day 1096): February 2025 saw intensifying military operations throughout the Ukrainian TVD, with both sides focusing on strategic air campaigns and continued Russian offensive on multiple fronts. Russia continued its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, targeting energy grids and transportation hubs to disrupt military logistics and civilian morale. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated its use of long-range drones and precision missile strikes, hitting Russian oil refineries and logistical hubs deep in Russian territory, including key sites in Belgorod and Kursk.
On the political front, Ukraine secured additional Western military aid, including French Mirage 2000 fighter jets, while NATO reaffirmed its support amidst growing concerns about potential escalation. Domestically, Russia faced increasing discontent among its population due to Ukrainian strikes on its territory, while sanctions-induced economic stagnation and logistical strain further challenged its war effort.
Economically, Ukraine struggled with energy shortages caused by continued Russian strikes, but international financial aid and grain export corridors through the Black Sea provided a lifeline. The conflict remains entrenched, with both nations locked in a war of attrition, as neither side achieved decisive breakthroughs on the battlefield or in negotiations. #UkraineWar #Donbass #Pokrovsk #Kupyansk #Pishchance #VelykaNovosilka #Kurakhove #ChasivYar #siverek
2/ Fourth Year of the War Begins: Today marks a solemn day for Ukraine and the international community. Three years have passed since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced. Three years later, much has changed, but one constant that has remained is the resolve of the Ukrainian people to defy Russian aggression and the conviction of those in the West willing to oppose it. Ukraine has shown the world what Patriots are made of. #SlavaUkraini x.com/ZelenskyyUa/st…
3/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
1/ Daily Tactical Update (DTU), Ukrainian TVD Day 1083: Today's DTU focuses on actions along the Donetsk Front from 08-11 February, 2025. #Siversk #Donbas #ChasivYar #Toretsk #Pokrovsk #NovyKomar #VelykaNovosilka #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini
2/ Operational Terms: Here is a list of commonly used terms and their definitions to help you understand the thread's graphics.
3/ Operational Overview: The Donetsk Oblast serves as the critical front for the Ground Forces of the Russian Federation (SVRF). The primary focus of OUGRV-Ukraine operations is the capture of southern Donetsk Oblast, which will facilitate advances into the less fortified areas of western and central Donetsk.
In the OSV Yug Area of Responsibility, the 3d Guards Combined Arms Army has made minor advancements in the Siversk region. In the Chasiv Yar area, VDV and Spetsnaz units have achieved significant tactical control over the northern and central sections of the town. The 41st Guards Combined Arms Army has established control over most of Toretsk. Yet, Ukrainian forces continue to resist in the northern and northwest outskirts of the city. While OSVs Tsentr and Vostok are making daily advancements in southern Donetsk, OUV Donetsk is successfully conducting delaying operations despite intense pressure.