Thread by @DionisCenusa

#Moldova: The fugitive businessman, hiding in Israel, Ilan Shor, was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison. Some reflections: 1) An amount of approximately 250 million euros of his property in assets or money can be confiscated;⤵️

2) The Moldovan side expects him to be arrested by Interpol or even to serve his sentence in Israel (highly unlikely); 3) The exponents of the ruling party are using this episode to show that justice is giving results;⤵️

4) Fighting grand corruption is something that the ruling party promised to be elected. This is also part of the preconditions for accession to the EU; 5) The law was modified last year to be able to issue sentences in absentia.⤵️

A similar approach is expected in the trial against fugitive oligarch Plahotniuc; 6) Shor has his own agenda that overlaps with Russia's. Shor wants impunity and to achieve it he seeks to provoke early elections at all costs. This serves Russia's objectives;⤵️

7) It's hard to know if Shor's sentence will influence his party's ability to organize protests and mobilize people; 8) The ruling party needs some sort of success before the EU begins assessing pre-accession conditions;⤵️

9) The ruling party through state institutions, at the request of the president, is organizing a rally on the main square of Chisinau on May 21. The ruling party says that people will come on their own and will not be transported. Having 50,000 involved in a demonstration can⤵️

only be achieved through organized activities; 10) Polls show only ~24% support for the ruling party. According to the latest polls, the main Socialist and Communist opposition parties have 17%.⤵️

If the Shor party is outlawed as the ruling party seeks to obtain in the Constitutional Court, Shor's voters will migrate to the opposition. There is a very complex local dynamic, which is highly influenced by the Russian aggression against Ukraine.