Thread by @TradetheMatrix1

Tracking cycles is the most helpful method in any market including #smallcaps. No indicator or single point reason will ever provide as much clues as cycles recognition can. Here are some tips on daily routines for tracking:

#trading
1.

Start tracking tickers performances.
-EOD close green or red
-intraday range % max

Note down are closes and ranges expanding/improving or decreasing for tickers on the day.

2.

Every strong cycle begins the same way. There is uptick for three days on stronger green closes (vs where gapping tickers open), ranges expand by 30-50%.

Tracking uptick/downticks in cycle flows every 3 days (if significant) can provide insight before things explode.

3.

Do not mix tickers from different categories! D1 gappers and MDRs and intraday pumps on no gaps should not be mixed in data set. Otherwise you have negated the whole point of exercise. Each category has its own metrics to measure uptick/downticks activity of cycle flows.

4.

Track rigged activity. Very important. High amount of rigged flows are present ahead or in the middle of strong cycle. Once that cycle is done it's very common manipulation activities will decrease significantly. If you notice uptick of rigged tickers in past two days...

5.

For example we had clean notice few days ahead of latest strong cycle that rigged flows were clearly at increase and that notice was out there few days before CXAI went berserk. Plenty of type1 and type4 traps and reclaims as key rigged patterns. Track those daily.

6.

Hot sectors. Most strong cycles in smallcaps ignite from hot sector in large caps. It is valuable to be aware on where latest fresh investment flows are moving in non-smallcaps to figure which sector has higher ignition potential.

7.

Do quick research daily to see what hot sectors are moving in large caps. It gives you a bit of heads-up of what might be sector to be "careful about" shorting early one or two months down the road.
Luckily it's rare to have more than one sector at once on potential list.

8.

What justifies hot sector potential:
-huge media exposure
-high google search rate
-big companies investing big all of sudden into it
-ideally is fresh sector, never had hot time around it before

9.

Track AH movement. High increase in AH activity is unique strong cycle behavior. It happens right in the middle of strong cycle (2 decent AH runners in row). It tells you where on the timeline of cycle you might be. It's not early anymore but not late either.

10.

It's about tracking change of uptick/downtick, not the absolutes. It's about context change from before. Current day vs past three days. Last two days vs prior 6 days. But understand the timing aspect. Smallcap cycles don't last long. You have to be quick on recognition.

11.

Track 1000% runners. First ticker that goes from it's base on day1 and completes 1k% move is typically going to top out strong cycle. The momentum downhill (consistent downticks every next day) is likely to follow. Usually one ticker always completes 1k% run in s.c.

12.

There is no magic indicator that can create good longs in weak cycle. Cycle recognition tells you when to stop with certain approach and pause for few days. In my view every method no matter what, requires 5-10 days of pause every 20 days being incompatible with cycle.

13.

Offerings are not good predictor of cycles. Increased amount of offerings does not provide above-noise response to cycles even that it kinda makes sense it should. With other words just because three offerings drop it doesn't kill the strong cycle potential.

14.

Tracking cycles requires daily data input because skipping three days can be already enough to miss critical context where the cycle is already shifting. You either do it daily or you don't. It doesn't take more than 5 minutes daily once you get it under practice for while.

15.

The edge in smallcaps can be thin. Strong cycles are biggest kill/add contributor. Specializing into recognizing those cycles early can be very helpful. It gives you better chance to not make all sorts of mistakes there.

16.

If you track cycles well and realize aprox where strong cycle began (near its peak), you know when it might expire to not overstay the long side. Past three strong cycles will tell you what duration could be (8d,14d, etc). Currently we run tight ship past 12 months.

17.