Monica Marks Profile picture
Apr 24 9 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
No publication fact checks more rigorously than ⁦@NewYorker⁩ imho & no journalist covers MENA better than ⁦David Kirkpatrick⁩ (@ddk_nyc⁩).

This ✍️—on why Ghannouchi’s arrest matters not just for #Tunisia but for the world—is a must-read. 🧵 newyorker.com/news/daily-com…
“The imprisonment of a leader as singular as Ghannouchi,” Kirkpatrick writes, is not just a blow to #Tunisia’s democracy. It’s “a setback to the wider world.

For Islamists who espouse violence, his imprisonment is a vindication—new evidence of the futility of the ballot box.” Image
Tragically, I couldn’t agree more.

Anyone watching closely knows #Tunisia’s return to repressive dictatorship will be a boon—to authoritarian rulers & jihadist recruiters—who argue Islam, liberalism & democracy can’t mix.

Saied’s persecution of RG vindicates jihadist narratives
This is another outstanding paragraph in Kirkpatrick’s article.

Kais Saied has proven far more “Islamist,” both in speech & deed, than Rached Ghannouchi and his so-called Islamist Ennahda Party dreamed of being post-2011.

The word “secular” belongs nowhere near Saied’s name. Image
Article 5 of Saied’s self-authored authoritarian 2022 constitution pushes #Tunisia in a much more “Islamist direction” than democratic 2014 constitution it replaced.

3 resources to understand this better:

amnesty.org/en/latest/news…

jadaliyya.com/Details/44358

brookings.edu/blog/order-fro…
I appreciate, too, that Kirkpatrick’s piece avoids hagiography & acknowledges Ghannouchi’s mistakes.

He calls RG’s decision to seek the speaker of parliament’s chair in 2019 “questionable.” I’d call it deeply unwise.

And this quote from fellow scholar Emad Shahin is excellent. Image
Kirkpatrick also recalls key details most writers miss, or never knew in the first place.

Like 1) RG’s efforts to talk sense into Egypt’s Morsi in 2012-13 & 2) that it was RG (w/ Essebsi)—not #Tunisia’s Nobel laureates—who broke the Bardo logjam in 2013.

newyorker.com/news/daily-com…
To learn more about:

1) How Ennahda & RG related to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood & Morsi

2) How Ennahda & RG helped create—& resolve—the 2013 Bardo Crisis (which nearly toppled #Tunisia’s transition)

Here are 2 more articles:

washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…

tcf.org/content/report…
Lastly, to learn more about Ghannouchi & Ennahda, here’s a podcast I did w/ great journalist @erinclarebrown.

Read scholars who’ve researched it most deeply, too: Emad Shahin, Larbi Sadiki, Andrew March, Anne Wolf, Rory McCarthy, Sebnem Gumuscu & myself.

spotify.link/LjIgzdBCfzb

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More from @MonicaLMarks

Mar 26
600,000 demonstrating is an extraordinary figure. It means approx 6.5% of #Israel's population is out protesting tonight, many having literally woken up from their beds when they heard Bibi fired Gallant.

When was the last time 6+% of any country protested? Genuine question.
Acc to @EricaChenoweth, a top scholar of protests, 3 of the largest were Philippines 1986 (3.5% of pop), Brazil 1984 (less than 1% pop) & Czechoslovakia 1989 (nearly 5% pop).

🇮🇱’s protest tonight is, pop percentage-wise, larger than all these.

Source: bbc.com/future/article…
For prior Tweet, I looked at protests @EricaChenoweth ranked as largest recorded, then Googled each country’s pop at that time & did the math. Disclaimer: not exhaustive research!

If anyone knows a protest that’s brought higher % of pop onto streets simultaneously, let me know!
Read 5 tweets
Mar 4
I want to introduce you to some of the kind, dignified ppl—most of them card-carrying UNHCR-certified refugees—surviving in utterly inhumane conditions in one of #Tunisia’s 🇹🇳 very poshest neighbourhoods.

This is what President Saied’s “Great Replacement” speech has wrought:🧵⬇️ Image
In the Lac neighbourhood of Tunis, amidst UN offices, foreign embassies & some of 🇹🇳’s fanciest cafés, a large group of refugees—the majority of whom I met were card-carrying UNHCR (@Refugees) certified—have been camping in very cold, rainy weather.

They are hungry & unsafe.
I spoke to 33 (group is much larger) over a few hours this afternoon.

Most were evicted overnight, often w/ violence, by landlords who either enthusiastically supported Kais Saied’s Feb 21 Great Replacement tirade, or feared they’d be criminalised for renting to Black migrants.
Read 31 tweets
Feb 8
In 2018 I dated a brilliant Turkish seismologist who worked at 🇹🇷’s top earthquake research institute, Bogazici University’s Kandilli Observatory.

We naturally discussed earthquake preparedness a lot.

He was fond of saying that earthquakes don’t kill ppl; buildings do.
Like most ppl w/ a firm grasp of statistical probability, he didn’t expend much energy worrying about terrorist attacks.

Those sometimes happened in Istanbul.

But the real threat—the looming sword hanging over all our heads there—was, & remains, a quake.
These past two disastrous days in 🇹🇷 have delivered horrifying revelations.

Suspicions that experts like my seismologist ex shared (abt, for example, building regulations not being properly enforced) have been confirmed.

The psychological toll on ppl across Turkey is enormous.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 7
Erdogan’s enraged face says so much.

He hasn’t visited the deprem bölgesi (earthquake zone) to empathise, apologise for Turkish state’s clear failures (in planning & construction regulation) or applaud responders.

Instead he sits in Ankara, threatening those who dare criticise
Ironically, white-hot rage against the state’s response to #Turkey’s devastating 1999 earthquake, which killed 18,000 ppl—characterised by sclerotic incompetence & touchy intolerance towards critique—created the context for Erdogan’s meteoric rise & 1st electoral victory in 2002.
Erdogan’s rise was also fuelled by his 1998 imprisonment on politically motivated charges.

Just 4 months before 1999’s devastating earthquake, Erdogan emerged from jail.

Imprisonment helped transform him, for many, into a symbol of democratic resistance to a sclerotic state.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 7
Serious delays in response, reflecting possible oversights in planning & coordination, are emerging in #Turkey.
Here’s one widely shared video on Turkish social media today.

It features an Izmir pediatrician who rushed to the affected area in SE Turkey.

But there’s a total absence of coordination, he explains, leaving doctors & nurses idle, their presence wasted.

This disaster’s scale is massive. Even w top-flight contingency planning, systems would’ve likely strained to respond.

At same time, earthquakes are to #Turkey what hurricanes are to Florida: a terrible, but predictable, part of the territory. Clear playbooks should’ve existed.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
In #Turkey’s 1999 earthquake, reported death #’s on 1st day constituted tiny fractions of the total (nearly 18,000).

Then, as now, countless ppl are trying to dig loved ones out of rubble w/ their bare hands.

Then, as now, entire blocks of flats collapsed in one fell swoop.
But now, tragedy’s faces are much more immediately visible.

Through our phones, we watch ppl trapped under collapsed buildings, broadcasting messages begging for help.

We wonder if rescue teams will get to them in time, and how—w/ airports & roads broken—they might manage.
Many Turkish friends are fuming that key infrastructure—places like airports, state hospitals & schools—collapsed.

Surely these buildings should’ve been reinforced or rebuilt acc to quake-resistant codes since the 1999 debacle, they say.

Maybe some were. Maybe others weren’t.
Read 4 tweets

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