“The imprisonment of a leader as singular as Ghannouchi,” Kirkpatrick writes, is not just a blow to #Tunisia’s democracy. It’s “a setback to the wider world.
For Islamists who espouse violence, his imprisonment is a vindication—new evidence of the futility of the ballot box.”
Tragically, I couldn’t agree more.
Anyone watching closely knows #Tunisia’s return to repressive dictatorship will be a boon—to authoritarian rulers & jihadist recruiters—who argue Islam, liberalism & democracy can’t mix.
Saied’s persecution of RG vindicates jihadist narratives
This is another outstanding paragraph in Kirkpatrick’s article.
Kais Saied has proven far more “Islamist,” both in speech & deed, than Rached Ghannouchi and his so-called Islamist Ennahda Party dreamed of being post-2011.
The word “secular” belongs nowhere near Saied’s name.
Article 5 of Saied’s self-authored authoritarian 2022 constitution pushes #Tunisia in a much more “Islamist direction” than democratic 2014 constitution it replaced.
I appreciate, too, that Kirkpatrick’s piece avoids hagiography & acknowledges Ghannouchi’s mistakes.
He calls RG’s decision to seek the speaker of parliament’s chair in 2019 “questionable.” I’d call it deeply unwise.
And this quote from fellow scholar Emad Shahin is excellent.
Kirkpatrick also recalls key details most writers miss, or never knew in the first place.
Like 1) RG’s efforts to talk sense into Egypt’s Morsi in 2012-13 & 2) that it was RG (w/ Essebsi)—not #Tunisia’s Nobel laureates—who broke the Bardo logjam in 2013.
600,000 demonstrating is an extraordinary figure. It means approx 6.5% of #Israel's population is out protesting tonight, many having literally woken up from their beds when they heard Bibi fired Gallant.
When was the last time 6+% of any country protested? Genuine question.
Acc to @EricaChenoweth, a top scholar of protests, 3 of the largest were Philippines 1986 (3.5% of pop), Brazil 1984 (less than 1% pop) & Czechoslovakia 1989 (nearly 5% pop).
🇮🇱’s protest tonight is, pop percentage-wise, larger than all these.
For prior Tweet, I looked at protests @EricaChenoweth ranked as largest recorded, then Googled each country’s pop at that time & did the math. Disclaimer: not exhaustive research!
If anyone knows a protest that’s brought higher % of pop onto streets simultaneously, let me know!
I want to introduce you to some of the kind, dignified ppl—most of them card-carrying UNHCR-certified refugees—surviving in utterly inhumane conditions in one of #Tunisia’s 🇹🇳 very poshest neighbourhoods.
This is what President Saied’s “Great Replacement” speech has wrought:🧵⬇️
In the Lac neighbourhood of Tunis, amidst UN offices, foreign embassies & some of 🇹🇳’s fanciest cafés, a large group of refugees—the majority of whom I met were card-carrying UNHCR (@Refugees) certified—have been camping in very cold, rainy weather.
They are hungry & unsafe.
I spoke to 33 (group is much larger) over a few hours this afternoon.
Most were evicted overnight, often w/ violence, by landlords who either enthusiastically supported Kais Saied’s Feb 21 Great Replacement tirade, or feared they’d be criminalised for renting to Black migrants.
He hasn’t visited the deprem bölgesi (earthquake zone) to empathise, apologise for Turkish state’s clear failures (in planning & construction regulation) or applaud responders.
Instead he sits in Ankara, threatening those who dare criticise
Ironically, white-hot rage against the state’s response to #Turkey’s devastating 1999 earthquake, which killed 18,000 ppl—characterised by sclerotic incompetence & touchy intolerance towards critique—created the context for Erdogan’s meteoric rise & 1st electoral victory in 2002.
Erdogan’s rise was also fuelled by his 1998 imprisonment on politically motivated charges.
Just 4 months before 1999’s devastating earthquake, Erdogan emerged from jail.
Imprisonment helped transform him, for many, into a symbol of democratic resistance to a sclerotic state.
This disaster’s scale is massive. Even w top-flight contingency planning, systems would’ve likely strained to respond.
At same time, earthquakes are to #Turkey what hurricanes are to Florida: a terrible, but predictable, part of the territory. Clear playbooks should’ve existed.