Following the 2024 NC gubernatorial election requires us to hold two seemingly contradictory things in our heads at the same time: (1) The NC gubernatorial election is among the most important elections in the country, (2) the NC Governor is extremely weak
On point 1: The Governor is the rhetorical political leader of the state. Like EF Hutton, when they talk, people listen. Whether or not they have actual power is beside the point to most citizens; people think the Gov is powerful, therefore (to some degree), they are.
In terms of partisanship, right now the country is divided 26 R Governors to 24 D. Sure they don’t vote together like a legislature, but each election takes on amped up importance because of the tight partisan balance. Map from governors.rutgers.edu/fast-facts-abo…
Cooper is also one of only 2 Dem Governors in the South (no, I don’t count KY as the South; get off my lawn), and the outcome of this election will say a lot about whether we are a 1 party or a 2-party region.
As Gov. Cooper has demonstrated (to some people’s relief & to other’s chagrin), politically adept governors can use their limited power to affect a lot of change (hello, Covid). & if we go back to an #ncga without supermajority control, the Gov's power to stop legislation will ⬆️
On point 2: In 1776, delegate to the NC Constitutional Convention William Hooper noted that they had given the Governor “just enough power to sign the receipt for his own salary.” 2 constitutions later, things have changed, but not by a lot.
NC was the last state in the country to give the Governor the veto power in 1996, but it is about the weakest veto imaginable.
Today, the NC Gov is one of only 6 in the country w/o line item veto power.
The NC Gov has virtually no power over the budget, except to sign or not sign it. As for the Gov's budget--as a legislator once told me, “the Gov's budget is extremely valuable—where else are you going to find a cheap doorstop when you need one?”
On appointments: Until 2018, the Governor had power to appoint ~1500 people to various positions (still fairly limited, compared to other states). In 2018 the NCGA reduced this # to ~300.
As @olpolhack said at the time, the NC Governor, already among the weakest in the country "are on their way to becoming a potted plant.”
& now there are attempts to reduce Gov. power even further. Clip from @TravisFain story:
So—pay attention to the #ncgov race; it’s extremely important, symbolically and substantively. Their words matter & a politically adept Gov. can affect policy change (+ & -).
But remember that no Gov is a king, and the NC Gov is the least king-like of any Gov in the country. Much of their power hinges on #ncga partisan control, so when a Gov candidate talks like their wishes will be translated into action, ask yourself if they have that power.
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Like everyone else in #ncpol, @BowTiePolitics & I been thinking a lot about the Tricia Cotham Party Switch.
A brief 🧵below for today.
Look for an @OldNorthStPol blog entry soon (probably tomorrow)
In terms of ideology, Cotham's past voting record places her towards the moderate end of the NC Dem Party, although she has not been a conservative.
Here's one way to think about it, using @bshor & @Nolan_Mc/s measure. Vertical line is Cotham. Higher #'s=more liberal.
If you prefer your analysis a little less wonky, I looked at her Civitas Action Score civitasaction.org/methodology/. For this score, ⬆️ numbers and better grades are associated with more conservative ("pro-freedom") votes
Cotham received an "F" for every year for which they have data
5 emerging thoughts on Cawthorn's loss. #ncpol#nc11
A 🧵 :
1. For all of the scandals, the one that did Cawthorn in was leaving the district & coming back. When he left, Edwards, Burril, Woodhouse & O'Connell weren't in this race. If he didn't leave, it's unlikely they would have gotten in. And he likely would weathered the storm.
2. Rules matter: without a runoff, Cawthorn wouldn’t have been elected in in the first place. If the #ncga didn’t move the threshold down to 30% in 2017, we’d be in a runoff in 2022.
National media posting helpful previews about what to follow in NC primaries today. Everyone's listing #nc11, but if you're not also watching #nc4#nc1 & #nc13, you're doing it wrong (1/4)
Fascinating local races across the state that will go a long ways to determining the direction of NC. Far too many to list, so I'll just point out this Charlotte City Council seat as one worth watching (story by @timfunk)
It's election eve in #ncpol (like New Year's Eve but w/ no hangover or pressure to stay up past midnight) & it's worth reflecting briefly on the people & institutions it takes to run a primary election and keep democracy working 🤏🧵
1) It takes a lot to run for office in any environment, but particularly in 2022 with..[gestures widely]...my 🎩 is off to all the candidates. Most of these folks are doing it for the promise of low $ & the inability to go to the grocery store w/o being harassed.
2) without an active & free press keeping us informed, this whole thing falls apart. We're lucky to have smart journalists covering our state--in DC, in Raleigh, and throughout the state. W/o them, it's just social media & spam texts (i.e. w/o them it's good-bye democracy).
Some back of the envelope math on potential voter turnout scenarios in #ncpol.
Background: In the past few elections, election day voting has become a smaller proportion of the overall vote. It was ~69% in the 2018 primary. We expect that % to drop, but by how much? 🤷
(1/6)
So, I ran some scenarios w/ 50% of all turnout coming on election day (ED), 55% coming on ED & 60% coming on ED.
Statewide:
50% ED translates to ~15.8% final turnout
55% ED: 17.6% final turnout
60% ED: 19.8% final turnout