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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Apr 27

🧵It is increasingly clear that #China is positioning itself to benefit from the war in #Ukraine. Putin’s folly has increased #Russia’s dependence on China for energy exports, accelerating Moscow’s vassalization to Beijing. It’s increasingly clear China is in the lead. 1/5

Beijing has also been able to exploit differences between Washington, Paris and Berlin when it comes to their #China policy, with a flurry of senior European leaders visits to China underscoring Beijing’s growing influence. China is now a rising great power in Europe. 2/5

Through its Belt and Road initiative China has sought to flip the maritime-to-land domain relationship in its favor, building a land-based supply chain network that—if successfully completed & defended—would enable China to compete from a position of advantage vice the US. 3/5

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Apr 23

🧵As I look at how the war in #Ukraine has unfolded, I’m increasingly convinced that this year will be critical to the final outcome. The drivers are both weapons, munitions and financial support for UKR, and as importantly also how the war factors into great power conflict. 1/6

First, the Sino-Russian axis is growing stronger, with PRC articulating positions ever-closer to Moscow’s (vide: statements by PRC ambo to FR that post-Soviet successor states lack int’l legitimacy). Second, voices in the US that weapons for UKR and Taiwan are a zero sum game.2/6

Vocal claims in some in US policy circles that we can’t afford to continue sending weapons to #Ukraine signal that Washington is not yet ready to move to wartime production, and that the defense budget will be in contention going forward. This means aid to UKR may decline. 3/6

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Apr 21

🧵I grow weary of the “China first ”school in US policy community, which argues that since our military isn’t big enough to cover both #Europe & #Asia, we need to stop aiding #Ukraine, leave EUR to its own devices & husband our resources to focus on the pacing threat in Asia.1/6

I’m sorry but this makes no sense. The “China first” school is retreading the tired “pivot” rhetoric from the last decade. You don’t try to solve the problem by running away from it. If our military is too small to secure our strategic interests, we need to build it up. 2/6

The Atlantic and the Pacific are not and either/or proposition; they are together/with. They are one problem set. China and Russia understand it—they have sought to create a simultaneous two-frontier crisis for us: one in Eastern Europe, the other in the Indo-Pacific. 3/6

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Apr 21

🧵There is a lot of speculation about how the war in #Ukraine will unfold—some better-informed, some less so. I would not venture to predict how it will end, nor what the final settlement might look like. But I can offer a few observations based on what we’ve seen so far. 1/6

Based on what we have seen since the initial RUS attempt at blitzkrieg suggests that Moscow counts on winning by attrition, where the size of its population and its staying power would give it an advantage. Putin seems to believe the West will tire of supporting #Ukraine. 2/6

Thus far #Russia has not been able to conquer #Ukraine and the morale of Ukrainians remains high, including their confidence that they will liberate their national territory. But it looks like Putin is banking on #Ukraine not having the resources to stay in a prolonged war. 3/6

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Apr 18

@PembrokeOxford

🧵A few thoughts as we are about to wrap up our workshop at @PembrokeOxford. Perhaps the most important deliverable is to underscore how transformative for European and global security the war in #Ukraine has been. Comments from different @NATO allies are clear on that. 1/6

@NATO

There is a sense of understandable uncertainty about what lies ahead, as #Ukraine prepares for its spring offensive. Clearly, @NATO members are politically unified in their condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but they have different appetites for risk-taking. 2/6

@NATO

This is reflected in different levels of military support already provided to #Ukraine by different countries, and by the extent to which "red lines" are still present when talking about future assistance. So far @NATO has been able to deter RUS from attacking its territory. 3/6

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Apr 15

🧵As I follow Russian media and the tenor of Russian politics, I am increasingly convinced that we are potentially looking at a historic inflection point in #Russia. I would call it "de-Westernization"-- an effort to return Russia's self-definition to its pre-European roots. 1/6

I think we continue to underestimate the civilizational shift that is occurring in #Russia in the wake of the war in #Ukraine.The current wave of Russian nationalism-cum-imperialism strives to redefine this war as a birth of a new Russian nation-free of any Western influence. 2/6

It is about returning #Russia to an imagined era before its modernization that drew heavily on Western civilizational resources, and then laid for Moscow a path to its three centuries of European empire. Russia's ever-closer alignment with #China is part of this trajectory. 3/6

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