Thread by @criprights

Let me explain some basic economic facts to people who do not get the importance of what was announced on Friday re #NDIS by @AlboMP. I have had much rebuttal, especially from Labor rusted ons who think that disabled people are being unduly critical and folk who have it wrong.

2/ This is the situation.

They say that under the current trajectory, the cost of the NDIS will reach $97 billion by 2032-33. But if the scheme achieves just an 8 per cent growth rate instead, the NDIS will cumulatively save more than $50 billion over the next decade.

3/ Now as most people know, forward estimates are mostly just imaginary nothing figures. You can say whatever you like. The number they have clawed out of their asses previously here is designed to make people afraid of cost, without looking at actual budgetary mechanisms/return.

4/ This has fuck all to do with @billshortenmp clawing back money via fraudulent providers, although that might turn out to be one of the cost saving measures. The issue there is that no, there is no way providers are ripping off 20% of the scheme. That will only be a fraction.

5/ Currently, growth sits at 14%. They want to reduce it to 8%. There are only a few ways to do that.

One is to reduce waste, which Shorten is doing through the review process, with any luck. That will cut out some process - but there is no way Labor will reduce workers hours.

6/ Another is to stop participant growth. That means that they will make it harder for disabled people to get in the scheme - introduce more onerous restrictions, like the need for more evidence, or having assessments. Or to narrowly define disabilities. This is another option.

7/ Another is to reduce funding across the board, which will probably mean more narrowly defining what we can & can't purchase with our money. And the last is a return to block funding some services, which many of us think is where they are headed, or a combination of the above.

8/ Now the principles of the NDIS are pretty fucking clear and advocates will fight tooth and nail to stop anything that limits, say, choice and control. These are the actual Principles guiding the NDIS Act, which nobody ever seems to cite any more. idfnsw.org.au/images/files/8…

9/ The issue is this - if they do anything which goes against these Principles, it makes a mockery of the Scheme, which was designed to both give back to the community via an investment approach, provide disability insurance for all Australians and support for disabled people.

10/ And there is something that is more serious in terms of actual, tangible effects. The Scheme provides more than 50 billion a year to the Australian economy. For every $1bn that the NDIS is underfunded, over 10,200 jobs will be lost, & economic activity & GDP will be reduced.

11/ You can read about that here.

What makes us angry, though, is this. That Labor is creating unnecessary stress and tension for Australians with disability and this is wholly unfair. How will you feel if this causes suicides, @AlboMP?

Because we both know this is bullshit.

12/ The reason is this. That even if we are allocated decent funding, there is neither the market (especially in regions) nor the ability for many disabled Australians to spend our funding, especially in a worker drought. For Aboriginal people, the underspend is 50%.

13/ So think of it like this. You get, say, $50,000 in funding. You might get $10,000 in therapy. But you have no physio in your region - you can't get them to visit your home & you're at risk from COVID - you are working full time and just didn't get to the therapist. Whatever.

14/ What happens to that money? Well, that ten grand - and it will probably be more than that, if there is an underspend - goes back into a kitty that was designed not for us, nor to be returned to the Scheme. It was designed to be unavailable. It is the Disability Care Fund.

15/ The reason we KNOW the line about unsustainability is bullshit is that the NDIS Disability Care Fund has grown from 2bn to a whopping 28bn over the years. Starving us of support has fed the investment portfolio of the Future Fund, where the DC Fund is held. By Peter Costello.

16/ There is every chance that this announcement comes from Albo as an appeasement to Sky viewers and those who would knock this budget. But if true, it is a threat to the lives of Australians. Wherever the cuts come from, it will halve the scheme funding in one way or another.

17/ This is not speculation, nor is it fearmongering, nor is it Laborbashing and those who seek to paint this as any of those things need to just stop now. Neither are we going to wait & see what happens with the Budget. There are fifty of us strategising today & during the week.

18/ If we were on horseback we would be saying, 'we ride at dawn'. And Labor should be worried about this, because there are a lot of us, we have a lot of families & we vote. Ditto the providers; if they are heading for block funding support coordination/plan management - whooee.

19/ I am going to pin this, because the lack of understanding of this issue is fairly widespread. People really don't seem to understand how the NDIS works. In the meantime, read this - you'll understand more.

percapita.org.au/our_work/false…

Get your hands off our NDIS.

20/ Number 11 - the link is here. percapita.org.au/our_work/false…