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Benjamin Thibault Profile picture
@ThibaultBen
May 4 • 14 tweets • 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
It's been a hectic few hours, but here is what we know about how @ABDanielleSmith, @rebeccakschulz, @BrianJeanAB and @Alberta_UCP are lying to you about net-zero electricity. #ableg #abpoli #abelxn 🧵 @JSJamato @CanadianPress @TorontoStar @calgaryherald
The government (Department of Energy at the time) commissioned an analysis of net-zero grid back in August. The RFP was won by ICF. The work was completed in the winter and provided to government.

vendor.purchasingconnection.ca/Opportunity.as…
The government has chosen not to release or talk about the results. Clearly, they didn't like the results -- presumably, they wanted to results to show higher costs. They have not been asked by media about this analysis.
The UCP caucus then used public $ to commission a report from Navius, through the Legislative Assembly of Alberta: naviusresearch.com/wp-content/upl…
UCP caucus has had it on their website behind a password protected area since March 31: unitedconservativecaucus.ca/wp-content/upl…
The UCP then releases it today as a part of a "net-zero grid is too expensive" presser and misrepresents the analysis, and also redacts certain parts. Bear with me...
First, MISREPRESENTS: In the analysts' own words: a nice short thread:

Basically, they double-counted costs and totally misrepresented what the analysis said.
Second, REDACTS: in the version the UCP posted in their press release, they whited out the information on who Navius submitted it to. They submitted it to the UCP caucus and the Legislative Assembly! But the UCP didn't want you to know that.

drive.google.com/file/d/1GXGWnc… ImageImage
We wouldn't have known, except that in straightening the record, to correct how the UCP misused the analysis, Navius posted the unredacted version.

naviusresearch.com/wp-content/upl…
So, the UCP takes a 0.03% economic impact from the Navius analysis, and erroneously adds it to an already inflated AESO net-zero cost number... and bear with me here again...
"Erroneously adds it": this is double-counting. The UCP is double-counting costs in coming up with their grotesquely over-inflated number:
"Already inflated AESO net-zero cost number": the AESO way overestimated emissions reduction technologies, ... and ...
Juiced the numbers so that the non-net-zero case looks aberrantly low.
Conclusion:
A) the UCP hides its analysis that didn't give the number it wanted;
B) commissioned another analysis and then lied about its results;
and 3) redacted it so that it wasn't clear that the public's legislature procured it but they used it for Party benefit.

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More from @ThibaultBen

Benjamin Thibault Profile picture
May 3
Some comments on the UCP's misleading rhetoric around net-zero electricity. #abpoli #abelxn
It's totally unhelpful, for two main reasons:
1) It perverts the AESO’s 2022 net-zero analysis
2) It is hiding its own analysis that it commissioned in the summer of 2022 to be delivered to them by February, but it hasn’t released.
There isn’t much to say about #2, except that we can only assume that their own analysis (#3) takes a more optimistic view of the path to net-zero electricity. If they are interested in a constructive conversation around net-zero electricity, why not release the report?
Read 14 tweets
Benjamin Thibault Profile picture
Jul 30, 2022
A comparative study in neighbouring provinces' <5 COVID vaccine press releases.

One (BC) gives a clear, science-based message to support public health. The other (AB, #ableg) chose a craven, ambiguous message to accommodate disinformation and anti-vaxxer sensitivities.
TLDR: In BC, parents are encouraged to get their kids vaccinated. In #ableg UCP's AB, parents are encouraged to talk to a "trusted health-care provider."
1) Timing.

BC: Announced opening on a Thursday afternoon, July 14.

AB: waited 2 additional weeks, announced late Friday July 29 before a long weekend.
Read 18 tweets
Benjamin Thibault Profile picture
Mar 7, 2022
Apropos of nothing:

Amount my family gets from federal climate action incentive this year: $858
Carbon tax costs on one 58-L tank: $6.38 (I might fill up 12 times in a year, so $76.56)

AB's electricity rebate: $150
AB's fuel tax relief: save $7.54/tank
I'll take the climate action incentive, thanks.
One additional point: there are a LOT of Ukrainian-Canadians in Saskatchewan and Alberta. It would be interesting to see how much both provinces and their economies are making off global oil and fertilizer price increases resulting from Ukraine's suffering.
Read 4 tweets
Benjamin Thibault Profile picture
Mar 6, 2022
Double-confirmed #YQL rumour that Kenney was loudly booed at the #Brier2022 in #Lethbridge when he came up on the jumbotron. #ableg
Small-city prairie curling crowds are not a constituency that conservatives can afford to lose (trust me… I know this works well!)
People have speculated that Team Botcher would be booed because Darren Moulding has Coaldale roots. Turns out it took the premier to bring the boos out.
Read 7 tweets
Benjamin Thibault Profile picture
Jan 18, 2021
Alberta's multi-billion $ public investment in KXL takes another step toward a write-off. It leaves me wondering: what role did an erroneous understanding of "indemnification of political risk" play in getting us here? #ableg
There is a logic to public investment to indemnify a project against political risk in some situations: where the government making the investment has some control or influence over that risk.
It serves the same function as a change in law provision in a contract with government: the government accepts the losses of the prospective policy change that creates the risk. The losses are allocated to the party who can best avoid them.
Read 14 tweets
Benjamin Thibault Profile picture
Aug 11, 2020
My family's experience with private delivery of joint replacement dates back to 2006. #abhealth [1/13]
Then only 24 years old, my brother underwent a Birmingham hip replacement surgery at the Health Resources Centre, a for-profit surgery clinic converted from the old Grace Hospital in Calgary's Hillhurst community. [2/13]
At the time, it was performing around one-third of such surgeries in Calgary. [3/13]
Read 14 tweets

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