Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 4 6 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Recently released footage from #Russian sources show that #Marinka, heavily fortified over the last decade, seemingly impregnable to Russian advance, is finally near falling.

The work of the "flamethrower" TOS-1 indicates that only around 15% of the town remains in UA hands.
The TOS1A Solntsepyok, which cannot be too far behind (short range), is targeting UA positions in the western edge of the town. Little is left of the once lovely Donetsk suburb, famously captured from Russian separatists by the Azov battalion. ImageImageImage
Earlier in the war its capture would have been very strategic (as we have discussed earlier) as it distances UA artillery & observers from Donetsk city and opens up the way for additional RU advances in key directions. Today, less so as the UA forces have learned to dig in and
defend in open territory and not only in urban areas. However, with the muddy season ending, we may see some maneuver potential in open territory returning to the battlefield (by either side). In this case, the fall of Marinka may yet still prove very important.
For example...
We discussed since the beg of Feb, the salient from Vuhledar (Ugledar) to Pobjeda (). The latter may become untenable with the fall of Marinka.
Finally, let us note that a RU advance on the north or south of Maryinskaya dam could lead to the collapse of Image
opposite bank's positions as they risk being cut off. The same holds true further west around Heorhiivka.

#RussianUkrainianWar

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More from @ZimermanErik

May 5
Now onto Bakhmut. First, a couple of days ago Wagner's head Prigozhin released an interesting video. He shows off large stocks of captured weapons (complains that the higher ups haven't been interested in it), and complains about the artillery munition supply. He jokes that
they can sell or trade these online in exchange for munitions. All sorts of theories on this, since it seems quite insubordinate, especially against the bureaucrats and Minister of Defense Shoigu. The leaked Pentagon documents mention this issue, and have been wanting to comment
on it, but no time yet. Here let us focus more on Bakhmut for now. On May 2nd-3rd all hell broke loose. While previously UA forces were barely shelling RU positions back, this changed drastically. UA forces initiated fierce counterattacks on the flanks and in NW Bakhmut to keep ImageImage
Read 23 tweets
May 3
You heard them right? The world's lone superpower Secretary of Defense and Chairman the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in testimony to the House (Armed Services Committee).

Short version below in thread.

So what is going on?

Seems like the evidence keeps lying.
It points to the US Navy now using drag queen Joshua Kelley (aka Harpy Daniels) to "attract" new enlistment.

Not sure what kind they are trying to attract. But I am sure this strikes fear in the hearts of the US' enemies.

(for more:
) Image
Certainly, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin II "stands by" what he said, and as far as General Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Committee must have not handed him those copies yet, because he "doesn't agree w/ those" & they "shouldn't be happening".
Read 4 tweets
May 3
A quick note about an increasingly frequent phenomena in the #Ukraine war.
UA drones, or better said loitering munitions, are being found around Moscow.

Here we see a UA made UJ-22 Airborn, which ran out of fuel in the Moscow (Bogorodsk) region & crashed. It carried 17kg of C-4 Image
explosives (US made according to RU sources).
Several others have been similarly found or shot down. The drones impressively penetrated very far into the Russian interior. They obviously are kamikaze strike drones and not meant for reconnaissance. However until now we had not
really seen them strike any important target in the Moscow region. And they did not seem to attempt it. The drones I believe are "hunting" for specific people, in essence attempting targeted assassination.
Though western countries often do this (to my dilike), at least against
Read 15 tweets
May 2
Recent #Ukrainian footage from the well known 93 independent mechanized brigade, shows #Russian shelling on the western edge of #Bakhmut, the last UA positions before a complete cut of the already limited UA lines of communication. Geolocation below.
What we have here is shelling of the UA positions around the Children's hospital (yellow) and the last sections of light residential buildings between the Russian Wagner forces and the critical road junctions (black) around Khromove. As we have discussed repeatedly, if the ImageImageImage
UA forces in the fortified citadel (here clearly seen in the video as you go up the main street uphill), do not withdraw soon, they will be trapped. Every day and hour the passes, the withdrawal becomes more precarious. Certainly not possible now in the daylight under full RU
Read 8 tweets
May 2
Recently released UA footage shows how unusable highway T-0504 really is. Of course note the condition of the road & the littered destroyed armored & supply vehicles.
While the impression meant is "Yea, a bit difficult, but we manage east & west on this road with gusto!", the geo
location tells a different story. The story this video tells is that of communications between Chasiv Yar (& it skips the destroyed bridge & the dirt bypass) and Ivanivske, not the story of Ivanivske and Bakhmut. We can see Bakhmut in the distance, specifically the UA fortified ImageImage
high rise citadel (being shelled apparently). So if this is the condition of the road where Rusian forces are still a good ways off, one can only imagine what it is east of Ivankivske towards Bakhmut. As we know, parts of the main highway, Chajkovskogo st within the city,
Read 5 tweets
Apr 19
Though reports of flooding are incoming, Sat imagery in general still shows recent days to be somewhat drier than last year as far as water level.
Regardless, Ukraine clearly has announced that there will be some flooding in low lying areas along the river, & has opened the gates
of the HPP in Zaporizhzhia. ImageImageImage
Higher 2022 vs 2023 levels (though dates are a few days off, and we don't have the latest levels in 2023 yet). ImageImage
Read 9 tweets

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