#Map Bakhmut madness
The topography at the west of Bakhmutka river provides some advantage for SE offense but at the end it favors those who is uphill.
The whole battlefield is 30km wide and 9 km deep so no deployment will hide.
*It’s made for entertainment.
1. Berkhivka hill.
It could be a good place for defense but fully exposed to the downhill attacks from the West and there are no positions to cover the area without exposure to the counter artillery. Can be used to launch an attack to a low ground.
2. Railroad between Berkhivka and Yahidne.
Position to control M03 and all the supply west of the river. The fields are smaller a assault tactics that was used by the russians may be used on the climb agains them on the fall.
3. M03 controll.
T0513 congestion would be a challenge, Paraskoviivka mine dominates the area and should be suppressed where UAV magic may come in handy.
Movement from the NW may help, large fields needs to be crossed in a single move, but they are probably mined.
4. T0513 and the vast valley around - there is no place to hide and would be abandoned once there would be a real push.
6, 7 Choke points.
There are 3 incoming roads from 🇷🇺, T0513 from Horlivka, T1302 - Lisychansk, T0504 - Popasna.
They all are comparably worst to defend than T0504 and O0506 on 🇺🇦 side but still deep behind the city, so 🇷🇺 should not wait when they would be cut off.
🇺🇦 don't really need to push that far away, securing the routes would be more than enough, but if the enemy allows all the possibilities needs to be used.
Outskirts of Berkhivka and Klishchiivka would be well above the expectations.
#Map#Klishchiivka pushback
First reported somewhat significant 🇺🇦 gain in a couple of months happens at the area where 🇷🇺 was struggling since capture of Kurdumivka.
The area is estimated from 2 to 8 km² and makes no difference.
What matters is momentum and positions. 0/X
Bakhmut is more than just a city - it's a lowland area east of the Donbas canal and offense can't stop on any point until canal is reached.
So 🇷🇺 should hold positions along the canal whatever the cost or start trading South and regroup.
1. 🇺🇦 recaptured area West of the canal - the main 🇷🇺 bridgehead, it also provides an access to the road, who controls it has a agility advantage over the enemy.
Control of the area cuts of the woods at the North, no more attacks over the canal.
April was the month of Bakhmut, there were some sparse attacks at Avdiivka and continues leveling of Mariinka, but AFU still keeps the presence in the city despite all the odds.
Ukraine brought a new tactic to the table during the furious fights for the city. Controlled demolition of abandoned buildings that allows to slow the enemy and remove some important positions.
There were multiple examples but city administration was first
#Map#Bakhmut
One month of last days. Western tanks are still no where near the front, 🇷🇺 has stuck on the outskirts of the city, but managed to capture 60km² around Bakhmut.
Let's take a look at quality of those kilometers.
The funnel of Bakhmut
In order to capture the city you must avoid city fights.
There are couple of ways how to force a surrender:
Erase from a distance or encircle it.
🇷🇺 has no resources for any of that.
🇷🇺 has managed to swing and break 🇺🇦 defense, take over Soledar and capture Klishchiivka by Jan 23.
The South claw won't change since. All the push have happen at North.
But then 🇷🇺 has hit the wall.
First time all the available missile titles were used in the combined strike.
Air-defence was not ready for that, or some missiles were guided around it.
There were
58 possible targets and only 34 were shot down.
Kh-47, Kh-22 and S300 missiles are out of reach still.
That would be the first massive strike in a month
Feb 16 attempt can be ignored but...
🇷🇺 launched 12 Kh-101 then and in 3 weeks after that 28 Kh-101 missiles were launched.
Same for Kalibr missiles 8/20
that looks like it's a production ceiling.
Tactics has changed.
In order to overload the air-defense 🇷🇺 used a wide variety of missiles:
28 - Kh101, 20 - Kalibr, 6 - Kh59, 2 - Kh31, 6 - Kh22, 6 - Kinjal, 13 - S300 as well as 8 Shahed drones.
They were launched along the whole front from Odessa to Sumy.
#TalkingPoint#Losses
Watch the strong trend on increased losses since December.
But the growth started back in September.
Kharkiv and Kherson operations added to the overall trend, but that half year trend is obvious.
Those increased losses aren’t believable on their own.
One of the best explanation of them is increased number of troops and @Kartinamaslom5 did a great description of it.
Increased losses are correlated with increased number of deployed forces.
@Kartinamaslom5 For a long time i was convinced that 🇷🇺 is limited in front capacity based on the initial number of deployed BTGs. That was a mistake.
With a change of infantry ratio 🇷🇺 were able gradually increase it's capacity.
So 300k is a planned increase.
There are 5 major directions
1 main objective to fully capture annexed territories🤯
Ignoring Kherson front as impossible for a full-scale invasion over the Dnipro (1M is not enough for that)
Let's explore those directions.
1. Invasion from Belarus towards Lviv. Highly unlikely.
Long supply lines, swampy forested terrain.
The area would be a death trap for a big army 50K+, because of all the complexities.
Impossible to succeed for a smaller group.