Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 14 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. The war comes to #Luhansk. Far from the front, Luhansk city has been beyond the range of Ukrainian missiles so it is used for Russian and LNR command and logistics. In the past two days, Ukraine has attacked structures there used to repair Russian weapons and command centers. Image
2. Russia confirms UK Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used in the attacks. Russia also confirms the Storm Shadow attacks were coordinated with US supplied ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy missiles (MALD)s. Image
2. Developed in the 90s by DARPA these inexpensive MALD decoys can be programmed to mimic any aircraft and create a dilemma for Russian anti-air defense operators who have to commit their dwindling defensive system to pursue harmless decoys while the real attack with Storm Shadow
3. cruise missiles follows while the Russians chase decoys. This is the type of modern warfare that we would employ in a war with Russia or China but until now Ukraine could only dream of having such a capability. The first two days have proven how well this strategy works. ImageImage
4. The result of these modern weapons deployed against the Russian force in Ukraine will be the destruction of Russian logistics, power and command and control facilities. By attacking Luhansk first, Ukraine has sent the message that no Russian attacker is safe in Ukraine.
5. I would expect that we will see days if not weeks of relentless destruction of Russia's war making capabilities in Ukraine and when the Russian murder machine is burning we might then expect to see newly formed Ukrainian mechanized combined arms forces attack sometime in June.

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More from @TimInHonolulu

May 15
1. In the battle for #Bakhmut, Ukraine destroyed the final Russian group trapped in a pocket south of #Ivanivske. With no hope of relief and reportedly cut off from communications with the Russian command, the encircled Russian force south of Ivanivske was totally destroyed. Image
2. Ukraine now has options to move on #Klishchiivka and on to #Zaitseve and eventually to #VeselaDolyna perhaps forming the the southern pincer of a Ukrainian Bakhmut envelopment while, at the same time, the northern force moves on #Yahidne to form the northern pincer. Image
3. The Russian command continues to attack at the center of the Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut, as evidenced by the Firms fires, while the Russian flanks are being steadily enveloped.
Read 4 tweets
May 13
1. On Friday, #Ukraine continued to advance on #Russia's flanks. In the south, Ukraine pressed further into the Russian lines. In the north, Ukraine attacked remaining entrenched Russian force near the #Khromove road. After that force was abandoned by retreating forces, Ukraine Image
2. surrounded the hold-outs and eliminated them with mortar fire finally freeing the Khromove road from the Russian threat. Ukraine then regrouped and assaulted the Russian forces on two lines of attack pushing the Russians back towards #Berkhivka.
3. After consolidating gains Ukraine was left in control of high ground that will allow it leverage to continue to advance. A rifle battalion of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade has reinforced the Ukrainian northern attack force so expect Ukraine is planning more
Read 4 tweets
May 5
1. Being a trial lawyer you face a sense of dread that something was overlooked. The decision to not put on a case in a civil case is something that I cannot fathom. Tacopena is a criminal defense attorney and that is sometimes a rational strategy in a criminal case where the
2. burden is beyond a reasonable doubt. Stated in other words, beyond a moral certainty. So a defendant can show the Govt didn't meet the burden by simply attacking their evidence showing how a reasonable juror can find doubt and it only takes 1 to hang the jury or 12 to win.
3. But a civil case has a very different standard. It's the preponderance of the evidence. Just a tad over 50% likelihood and the plaintiff wins. But here's the point, to even get to argue that you have met the civil burden you have to put on a case. It is true that
Read 8 tweets
May 5
1. Here's the current FIRMS Fire data in #Bakhmut. The area that appears to be burning are areas in the west and south currently held by Ukraine. Image
2. There appears to be an increase in Ukraine battle space fires that are being detected by the NASA Firms system. One big one is Alchevsk that is Russian-held rail center 54 miles ESE of Bakhmut. Image
3. Ukraine has hit #Alchevsk in the past and looks like Ukraine unloaded on it again. All of these attacks are consistent with the run up to a coming Ukrainian offensive. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 4
1. Wednesday's Kremlin drone strike was followed by Russian threats to deploy nuclear weapons but thus far only resulted in a minor Shahed drone attack on Kyiv that was defended with no reported casualties. Ukraine continues preparing for the offensive by attacking fuel depos.
2. Weather was generally clear Donbas and the south and the forecast remains free of significant rain for the next several days. It may take some time for the ground to dry enough to support a mechanized assault force but the ground in the south is reportedly sandy
3. soil that is less prone to produce the deep mud that has limited movement. Bakhmut appeared to be fairly quiet with no reports of major changes in territory.
Moscow may now have a better idea of who actually hit the Kremlin and my guess is that they know it wasn't Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
May 3
1. On @NicolleDWallace reporting that Fox board was bringing in "an outside law firm" to investigate, it's likely something the audit committee had to do under Sarbanes-Oxley. But that would be driven by a concern that something material had not been disclosed in the SEC filings.
2. I don't know how the, "White people don't fight like that" text got out. Was it covered by a pre-trial protective order? But if they were investigating under run up to Sarbanes-Oxley outside counsel investigation safe harbor it suggests that it was a lot worse and this text
3. may just be the tip of the iceberg. My initial suspicion is that Carlson had agreed to advance a violent insurrection and there is evidence of it. If that were done and management knew, it could result in a forced divestiture by the Murdoch family.
Read 5 tweets

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