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🧵 In my keynote at #CSD2023 on Ukraine’s Path to Victory, I asked: how to end this war?
My answer in short: the faster Putin understands he has made a mistake, he will not reach his objectives and won’t be able to break Ukrainians, the sooner this war ends. 1/
My answer in short: the faster Putin understands he has made a mistake, he will not reach his objectives and won’t be able to break Ukrainians, the sooner this war ends. 1/
Longer answer: for victory there are conditions and policies we need to pursue.
To begin with, as President @ZelenskyyUa says, freedom must be armed better than tyranny.
Arms, ammunition, training – they all must continue at a scale sufficient for Ukraine to win the war. 2/
To begin with, as President @ZelenskyyUa says, freedom must be armed better than tyranny.
Arms, ammunition, training – they all must continue at a scale sufficient for Ukraine to win the war. 2/
However, it’s not only battlefield success that will decide the outcome of the war.
We must show the Kremlin it cannot outlast Ukraine and the free world economically.
So, Ukraine’s victory also depends on our ability to dry up the Kremlin’s income to finance aggression. 3/
We must show the Kremlin it cannot outlast Ukraine and the free world economically.
So, Ukraine’s victory also depends on our ability to dry up the Kremlin’s income to finance aggression. 3/
For lasting peace in Europe, we need accountability. Without this, Russia’s cycle of violence will never stop.
Taking responsibility is the basis for a society to have a future. It's the basis for breaking the cycle of aggression. 4/
Taking responsibility is the basis for a society to have a future. It's the basis for breaking the cycle of aggression. 4/
Until that’s not the case, we must prepare for the worst. Life next to a pariah state has a cost.
We need to adapt and strengthen our own defence and security.
Stability in Europe is secured by a geopolitical EU and by NATO that’s able to defend Europe militarily. 5/
We need to adapt and strengthen our own defence and security.
Stability in Europe is secured by a geopolitical EU and by NATO that’s able to defend Europe militarily. 5/
We also need to end grey zones in Europe. Grey zones fuel conflicts and invite dictators to invade.
It has become clear that for peace in Europe, we need Ukraine in NATO and the EU. 6/
It has become clear that for peace in Europe, we need Ukraine in NATO and the EU. 6/
The Kremlin sees liberal democracy as its biggest enemy.
The focus is currently on conventional war. Rightly so – the aggressor must be defeated on the battlefield.
But Russia is also waging a war against our democracies – energy war, information war, cyberwar. 7/
The focus is currently on conventional war. Rightly so – the aggressor must be defeated on the battlefield.
But Russia is also waging a war against our democracies – energy war, information war, cyberwar. 7/
We in Estonia, at the frontline of democracy, have long been aware of Russia’s hybrid tactics.
They try to influence political and social choices. They aim to undermine trust both within and between societies. One of Russia’s goals is to undermine unity between Allies. 8/
They try to influence political and social choices. They aim to undermine trust both within and between societies. One of Russia’s goals is to undermine unity between Allies. 8/
Russia is a pariah state that needs to be isolated. You can't interpret it via a democratic lens.
There's no room for appeasement or flirtation with business as usual.
Half-baked solutions are dangerous. Our joint pressure against Russia must increase, not decrease. 9/
There's no room for appeasement or flirtation with business as usual.
Half-baked solutions are dangerous. Our joint pressure against Russia must increase, not decrease. 9/
That's why the international approach to Russia must remain firm and long-term.
Our focus must be to ensure that aggression ends in defeat and we're prepared to stop its expansion.
For this, we need to believe in Ukraine – a precondition to give the help needed for victory. 10/
Our focus must be to ensure that aggression ends in defeat and we're prepared to stop its expansion.
For this, we need to believe in Ukraine – a precondition to give the help needed for victory. 10/
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